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Principles of Systems Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

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Title: Principles of Systems Dynamics Modeling and Analysis


1
(No Transcript)
2
Principles of Systems DynamicsModeling and
Analysis
Pål I. Davidsen pal.davidsen_at_geog.uib.no Departmen
t of Geography, University of Bergen, N-5020
Bergen, fax. 55 584107 tel. 55 584134
3
Knowledge elicitation
System Dynamics
Problem solving
Problem identification
Management
Knowledge dissemination
4

L.B.S., L.S.E., Leeds Portsmouth Scranton
Sunderland
Mannheim Stuttgart Cottbus Mainz
Istanbul
University of Bergen HIA, NTNU, BI
Bologna, Bocconi Carla Cattaneo Palermo
Sevilla Pamplona
Lisboa Algarve
Utrecht
Lugano
5
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6
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7
Decision
Making
Events (symptoms)
Behavior (dynamics)
Structure (underlying causes)
8
Decision
Making
Events (symptoms)
Behavior (dynamics)
Policy
Design
Structure (underlying causes)
9
Events (symptoms)
Behavior (dynamics)
Policy
Design
Structure (underlying causes)
10
Behavior
Policy
Design
Structure
11
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12
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13
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14
Strategy
Development
15
Point of DepartureProblem behavior
16
(No Transcript)
17
IdentifyUnderlying Problem Structure
18
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19
IdentifyNew Solution Structure
20
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21
GoalDesired behavior
22
t
23
Desired behavior
Problem behavior
Hypothesis Development Testing
New Solution Structure
Underlying Problem Structure
24
Strategy
Development
gt System dynamics a problem-oriented multidiscip
linary approach
25
Problem behavior
The model shouldgeneratethe original
behaviorfor the right reasons
Underlying Problem Structure
26
Desired behavior
gtThe model willgeneratethe desired
behaviorfor the right reasons
New Solution Structure
27
The model shouldexplainnot justpredict
28
The model must constitute acausal feedback
theory
29
Strategy
Development
Behavior
Structure
30
Behavior
Structure
31
Behavior
Structure
32
Behavior
Structure
33
Behavior
Structure
34
System DynamicsIdentify, understand, and
utilizethe relationship
Behavior
Structure
35
System DynamicsIdentify, understand, and
utilizethe relationship
Behavior
Structure
incomplex, dynamic systems
36
Complexity
S
D
Simplicity
37
Realism
S
D
Abstraction
38
Realism
It is better to find
Abstraction
39
a satisfying solution to a problem that
exists
than
an optimal solution to a non-existing problem
40
Challenge potential shifts in Domin. structure
Domin. structure
Behavior
Behavior
41
MaintainingRealism
42
We must not onlymodel explicitly the plumbing
of the system
43
We need to describe how we
  • Make observations Form expectations
  • Establish attitudes
  • Act on incentives (decide)

44
We need to differentiate between
  • Actual
  • Observed
  • Confirmed
  • Projected
  • Desired
  • Expected

  • magnitudes

45
  • Petroleum Exploration

Actual Productivity
Perceived Productivity
Exploration Efforts
Reported Productivity
Ideal Discoveries
Estimated Productivity
Estimated Discoveries
Desired Discoveries
46
  • Petroleum Exploration

Nominal Productivity
Actual Productivity
Perceived Productivity
Productivity Incentives
Exploration Efforts
Reported Productivity
Desired Productivity
Ideal Discoveries
Estimated Productivity
Estimated Discoveries
Desired Discoveries
47
  • Petroleum Exploration

Nominal Productivity
Actual Productivity
Perceived Productivity
Productivity Incentives
Exploration Efforts
Reported Productivity
Desired Productivity
Ideal Discoveries
Estimated Productivity
Estimated Discoveries
Desired Discoveries
48
System DynamicsIdentify, understand, and
utilizethe relationship
Behavior
Structure
incomplex, dynamic systems
49
Accumulation
Feedback
Complexity
Non-linearity
50
Complexity a synergy of
51
Complexity
Accumulations Latencies/ Delays
the origin of dynamics
52
Causality playing out over time
Instantaneous causality
53
In a causality that spans time nothing happens
instantaneously
0
t
t
0
1
0
1
54
Effects unfold over time
900
0
t
t
0
1
0
1
55
Accumulationsdistribute and form the effects
of a changeacross a system(in space)over time
56
A first order accumulation process (building up
distance)
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
57
A second order accumulation process (building up
speed)
Manpower
Hiring Training Rate
Attrition Rate
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
58
A third order accumulation process (building up
accell.)
Trainers
Training Cap. Building Rate
Training Cap. Decay Rate
Manpower
Hiring Training Rate
Attrition Rate
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
59
Trainers
Training Cap. Building Rate
Training Cap. Decay Rate
Manpower
Hiring Training Rate
Attrition Rate
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
60
Trainers
Training Cap. Building Rate
Training Cap. Decay Rate
Manpower
Hiring Training Rate
Attrition Rate
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
61
Trainers
Training Cap. Building Rate
Training Cap. Decay Rate
Manpower
Hiring Training Rate
Attrition Rate
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
62
Trainers
Training Cap. Building Rate
Training Cap. Decay Rate
Manpower
Hiring Training Rate
Attrition Rate
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
63
Trainers
Training Cap. Building Rate
Training Cap. Decay Rate
Manpower
Hiring Training Rate
Attrition Rate
Inventory
Production Rate
Shipment Rate
64
Multiple accumulationsintroduceintransparency
that leads us tofocus on short-term problems
while ignoringlong-term benefits
65
Multiple accumulationsintroduceintransparency
that leads us tofocus on short-term benefits
while ignoringlong-term problems
66
Additional Complexity
Reputation
Gain
Loss
67
Indicated Rep. gt Reputation
Reputation
Gain
Loss
Indicated Reputation
68
Indicated Rep. lt Reputation
Reputation
Gain
Loss
Indicated Reputation
69
Additional Complexity
Reputation
Gain
Loss
Indicated Reputation
70
Latenciesandthe time over whichthe effects
play outare often misperceivedmore
oftenunderestimated than overestimated
71
StocksFlows
72
Backlog
Order Execution Rate
Order Placement Rate
73
Inventory
Delivery Rate
Production Rate
74
Cash
Revenue Rate
Payment Rate
75
Personnel
Hiring Rate
Attrition Rate
76
Capital
Acquisition Rate
Discard Rate
77
Capital
Acquisition Rate
Discard Rate
Book Value
Payment Rate
Depreciation Rate
78
Capital
Acquisition Rate
Discard Rate
Price
Book Value
Payment Rate
Depreciation Rate
79
Annual Fraction Discarded
Capital
Acquisition Rate
Discard Rate
Price
Book Value
Payment Rate
Depreciation Rate
Annual Fraction Depreciated
80
Identified Reserves
Production Rate
Discovery Rate
81
Identified Reserves
Production Rate
Discovery Rate
Book Value
Depreciation Rate
Exploration Expenditures
82
Recovery Technology
Cum Production
Identified Reserves
Production Rate
Discovery Rate
Total Recoverable Resource Remaining (CumulativePr
oduction IdentifiedReserves)FractionRecoverable
- CumulativeProduction)
Book Value
Depreciation Rate
Exploration Expenditures
83
Recovery Technology
Cum Production
Identified Reserves
Production Rate
Discovery Rate
Total Recoverable Resource Remaining
Unit Exploration Expenditures
Book Value
Depreciation Rate
Exploration Expenditures
84
Recovery Technology
Cum Production
Identified Reserves
Production Rate
Discovery Rate
Total Recoverable Resource Remaining
Unit Exploration Expenditures
Book Value
Depreciation Rate
Exploration Expenditures
85
No stocks,no state
86
No stocks,no state
No flows,no dynamics
87
Stocksact asbuffersthey de-couple flows
88
Stocksintegrateflows
89
Debt
Import Rate
Export Rate
Stocksintegrateflows
90
Debt
Import Rate
Export Rate
91
Debt
Net Import Rate Import Rate
- Export Rate
The Debt Model
92
Debt
Import Rate
- Export Rate
t
0
1
0
t
0
1
93
Debt
Import Rate
- Export Rate
t
0
1
0
t
0
1
94
Debt
Import Rate
- Export Rate
t
0
1
Stocksconstitutedelays
0
t
0
1
95
Just like driving a car .......
Capital
Inventory
Acquisitions
Phase-outs
Shipments
Production
Exp. Demand
Personnel
Recruitment
Adj. Exp. Demand
Attrition
Market Demand
96
Dynamics
Delay
Feedback
Complexity
Non-linearity
97
DelayDistributes the effectof our
effortsthrough the system over time
98
Delaydistributes the effectof our
effortsthrough the system over time
-

Price
Demand
Supply

-
Perceived Shortages
99
Delayobscuresthe relationship betweencause and
effect
-

Price
Demand
Supply

-
Perceived Shortages
100
gtIt is difficult to
-

Price
Demand
Supply

-
Perceived Shortages
101
identify problems(what are their causes)
Price
Demand
Supply
Perceived Shortages
102
take effective actions(what do they cause)
Price
Demand
Supply
Perceived Shortages
103
-

Price
Demand
Supply
and feedback ...

does not make itless difficult
Perceived Shortages
104
-

Price
Demand
Supply
A note on ...

econometrics
Perceived Shortages
105
-

Price
Demand
Supply
A note on ...

the significance ofthe time horizon
Perceived Shortages
106
Managementfrom aSystem Dynamicsperspective
ensureshort- and long-termsustainability
107
(No Transcript)
108
Feedback
Accumulation
Complexity
Non-linearity
109
Complexity
Accumulations Latencies/ Delays
From the origin of dynamics to
110
Complexity
Accumulations Latency/ Delay
Feedback
circular causality
111
Circular causalityleadus to reason in
circlesCause becomes effectandeffect
becomes cause
112
This is why we need to saySome change in
Bleads to a change in A which over a period
of timeleads to a change in B
A B
113
-

Price
Demand
Supply
-
-


Perceived Shortages
114
-

Price
Demand
Supply
-
-

-
Perceived Shortages
115
-

Price
Demand
Supply
-
-

-
Perceived Shortages
116
MoreFeedback(FblExmpls)
117
Managementfrom aSystem Dynamicsperspective

118
Managementfrom aSystem DynamicsperspectiveSt
rengthenfavorable loops
119
Managementfrom aSystem DynamicsperspectiveSt
rengthenfavorable loopsWeakenunfavorable
loops
120
NOTEWhat loops arefavorable or unfavorable
variesfrom one point in timeto the
nextbecause of
121
-

Price
Demand
Supply
-
-


Perceived Shortages
122
ChallengeWhat loops arefavorable or
unfavorable variesfrom one point in timeto the
nextbecause
123
... not only do
Effects take time
Effects feed back
124
Effects take time
Effects feed back
Effects also synergize
125
Complexity a composite of
Accumulations Latency/ Delay
Feedbacks
Non-linearities
126
Feedback
Accumulation
Complexity
Non-linearity
127
Non-linearity causes the response to a change
in a variable to be conditioned by the state of
the system
128
...(1) by the value of the variable itself..
  • Efficiency in Exploration

50
25
0
0
0.5
1
Fract. Total Resource Remaining Undiscovered
129
  • Nominal Rework Effort
  • Needed Per Error

0.6
C o d i n
g
D e s i g
n
0.4
0.2
of Job Completed
0
0.25
0.75
1.0
0.50
0
130
  • Active Errors

100
C o d i n
g
D e s i g
n
66
33
of Job Completed
0
0.25
0.75
1.0
0.50
0
131
  • Active Error Retirement Fraction

1.0
C o d i n
g
D e s i g
n
0.66
0.33
of Job Completed
0
0.25
0.75
1.0
0.50
0
132
  • Efficiency in Exploration

50
25
0
0
0.5
1
Fract. Total Resource Remaining Undiscovered
133
Non-linearity causes the response to a change
in a variable to be conditioned by the state of
the system
134
.. (2) by the value of other variables..
X
Y
Z X Y or X / Y rather than X Y or X
- Y
Subsystem I
Subsystem II
135
Productivity
Yield Investments Productivity Investments
Productivity From Technology Effect Of
Exploration On Productivity
Technology
Eff. Of Exploration On Productivity
Investments
Exploration
Finance
136
To be continued ...
137
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Cumulative
Additions to
Identified Resource
138
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Cumulative
Additions to
Identified Resource
139
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Technological Progress
Cumulative
Additions to
Identified Resource
140
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Technological Progress
Exploration Progress
Cumulative
Additions to
Identified Resource
141
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Cumulative
Productivity From Technology Techn.
Discoverable Resource Remaining
(TDRR) / Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Additions to
Identified Resource
142
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Technological Progress
Cumulative
Productivity From Technology Techn.
Discoverable Resource Remaining
(TDRR) / Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Additions to
Identified Resource
143
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Cumulative
Effect of Exploration On Productivity Undiscov
ered Resource (UR) / Total Resource (TR)
Additions to
Identified Resource
144
Total Resource (TR)
Undiscovered Resource (UR)
Exploration Progress
Cumulative
Effect of Exploration On Productivity Undiscov
ered Resource (UR) / Total Resource (TR)
Additions to
Identified Resource
145
Productivity
Yield Investments Productivity Investments
Productivity From Technology Effect Of
Exploration On Productivity
Technology
Eff. Of Exploration On Productivity
Investments
Exploration
Finance
146
Total Resource (TR)
Yield Investments Productivity Investments
Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR)
/ Undiscovered Resource (UR) Undiscovered
Resource (UR) / Total Resource (TR)
Cumulative
Additions to
Identified Resource
147
Total Resource (TR)
Yield Investments Productivity Investments
Techn. Discoverable Resource Remaining (TDRR)
/ Total Resource (TR)
148
Total Resource (TR)
Technological Progress
Exploration Progress
149
so that non-linearity causes effects to
become blended
150
gt
Non-linearity makes it difficult to establish
experience with respect to underlying
causes (diagnosis) and leverage points, doses and
timing (treatment)
151
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
152
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
153
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
154
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
155
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
156
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
157
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
158
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
159
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
160
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
161
Revenue

RD Efficiency

-
-
-

Demand
Price/QLT
Sales
Qlt





Price
Investm. in RD
-
-

of Investments in Production


-

Investm. in Prod.



Production Capacity
Production Rate
Inventory Level
162
Non-linearity makes it difficult to utilize
formal analysis
163
Realism
S
D
Abstraction
164
It is better to be almost right (ca. 7.5)
than
precisely wrong (3.85564923557)
165
Non-linearity gt Endogenous shifts in structural
dominance
166
Interdisciplinary analogiesReality checks
Defining loops that serve a purpose
167
Population
168
Population
Birth Rate
169
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
170
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
171
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
172
RGFP
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
173
Carrying Capacity
C
RGFP
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
174
Carrying Capacity
C
Stress
P/C
RGFP
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
175
Carrying Capacity
C
Stress
P/C
RGFSP
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
176
Carrying Capacity
C
Stress
P/C
RGFPP/C
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
177
RGFP2/C
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
178
-

RGFP
RGFP2/C
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
179
10 000-
Population
-

Months

5 000-
0
0
10
5
180
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181
Population
10 000-
-

Months

5 000-
0
0
10
5
182
Population
10 000-
Infectious
-

Months

5 000-
0
0
10
5
183
Population
10 000-
Infectious
-

Months

5 000-
Susceptible
0
0
10
5
184
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185
Carrying Capacity
C
Stress
P/C
-
-

RGFPS
RGFP
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
RGF
Reference Growth Fraction
186
Note If the entire population was
susceptible, then all meetings with an infections
is potentially a recruitment
-
-

c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
187
Total Population
Note No more than the total population N may
become infectious i.e. the total population is
the carrying capacity
N
Growth Resistance
I/N
-
-

c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
188
Total Population
Note The fraction I/N of the population has
already been infected and a meeting between such
a person and another infected does NOT
contribute to recruitment
N
Growth Resistance
I/N
-
-

ciIGR
c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
189
N
-
-

ciII/N
c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
190
Recruitment under the assumption that the total
population is susceptible
-

c i I
ciII/N
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
191
Recruitment under the assumption that the total
population is susceptible
Recruitment failing because a fraction (I/N)
of the total population is not susceptible
-

c i I
ciII/N
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
192
-

ciI2/N
c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
193
Net Recruitment Rate
c i I - ciI2/N
-

ciI2/N
c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
194
Net Recruitment Rate
c i I (1 - I/N)
Recruitment succeeding because a fraction (1 -
I/N) of the total population is still susceptible
-

ciI2/N
c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
ci
Reference Growth Fraction
195
Net Recruitment Rate
c i I (1 - I/N)
-

ciI2/N
c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
196
Net Recruitment Rate
c i I (1 - I/N)
-

ciI2/N
c i I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
197
Net Recruitment Rate
c i I (1 - I/N)
-
c i I

ciI2/N
Infectious
198
Net Recruitment Rate
c i I (1 - I/N)
c i I

Infectious
-
199
c i I - ciI2/N
Infectious
Net Recruitment Rate
200
c i (1 - I/N) I
Infectious
Net Recruitment Rate
201
c i (1 - I/N) I
Infectious
Net Recruitment Rate
202
-

c i (1 (N-S)/N) I
Infectious
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
203
-

c i ((N (N-S))/N) I
Infectious
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
204
c
Contact Frequency
S/N
c I
Prob Of Mtg. Susc.
Hot Contacts Per Week
-

c i S/N I
Infectious
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
i
Infectivity
-

c i S/N I
Infectious
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
205
c
Contact Frequency
S/N
c I
Prob Of Mtg. Susc.
Hot Contacts Per Week
-

c i I/N S
Infectious
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
i
Infectivity
-

c i I/N S
Infectious
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
206
(c i) I
(ciI/N)I
Infectious
Potential Recruitment Rate
Failed Recruitment Rate
NOTE Although the models are equivalent, the
positive and negative loops in these two models
are not the same! They tell the story in two
very different ways
-

c i I S/N
Infectious
Susceptible
Net Recruitment Rate
207
10 000-
-

Months

5 000-
0
0
10
5
208
Summary
Susceptible
Susceptible
-
NetRecruitmentRate
NetRecruitmentRate

Infectious
Infectious
209
Endogenous Shifts in Structural
Significance Diffusion and Depletion Processes M
asking a negative loop by a positive loop
210
Exploration Potential
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate
Exploration Rate
211
Exploration Potential
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
212
Exploration Potential
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Exploitation Rate
Exploitation Rate
213
Exploration Potential
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Exploitation Rate
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
Exploited
214
Exploration Potential
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Exploitation Rate
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
Exploited
215
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
216
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
Revenues
217
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity in Exploration
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
Revenues
218
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Exploration
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
Revenues
219
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Exploration
Exploration Rate


Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploration Technology
-
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Investments in Exploration Technology
Exploited
Revenues
220
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Technology
Productivity of Investments in Exploration
Exploration Rate


Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploration Technology
-
Investments in Exploration Technology
Investments in Exploration
Investments in Technology
Exploitation Rate
Investments in Exploration Technology
Exploited
Revenues
221
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Technology
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
-
Investments in Technology
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
Revenues
222
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
Exploration Technology
-
Productivity of Investments in Technology
Exploration Rate
Exploration Technology

Investments in Technology
Exploited
Revenues
Exploration Technology
223
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
Exploration Technology
-
Productivity of Investments
Exploration Rate
Investments in Technology
Exploration Technology

Exploited
Revenues
Exploration Technology
224
Exploration Potential
Exploration Technology
-
Exploration Rate
Exploration Technology

Exploited
Exploration Technology
225
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Exploration
Exploration Rate


Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploration Technology
-
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Investments in Exploration Technology
Exploited
Revenues
226
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Exploration
Exploration Rate


Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploration Technology
-
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Investments in Exploration Technology
Exploited
Revenues
227
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Exploration
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Exploration Technology
-
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Exploited
Revenues
228
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments in Exploration
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
Investments in Exploration
Exploitation Rate
Revenues
229
Effect of Exploration on Investment Productivity
Exploration Potential
-
Productivity of Investments
Exploration Rate
Investments in Exploration

Exploitation Rate
Revenues
Expl. / Exploit. Pot
230
Exploration Potential
-
Exploration Rate

Expl. / Exploit. Pot
231
Undiscovered
-
Discovery Rate

Discovered
232
Total Resource (TR)
Investment and technology loop dominance
10 000-
Technological Progress


5 000-
Exploration Progress
0
0
100
50
Years
CAIR
233
Total Resource (TR)
Depletion loop dominance
10 000-
Technological Progress
-


5 000-
Exploration Progress
0
0
100
50
Years
Undiscovered
-
CAIR
Discovery Rate

Discovered
234
Total Resource (TR)
Depletion loop dominance
10 000-
DTP
-


5 000-
0
EP
0
100
50
Years
Undiscovered
-
Discovery Rate

CAIR
Discovered
235
Total Resource (TR)
Depletion loop dominance
10 000-
DTP
-


5 000-
0
EP
0
100
50
Years
TUrRR
Undiscovered
RTP
-
Technically Recoverable Resource
Remaining (TRRR)
Discovery Rate
PP

CAIR
Discovered
236
Total Resource (TR)
Investment and technology loop dominance
Undiscovered
10 000-
Discovered
DTP

5 000-

0
EP
0
100
50
Years
TUrRR
RTP
Technically Recoverable Resource
Remaining (TRRR)
Production Rate
PP

CAIR
Recovered
237
Total Resource (TR)
Depletion loop dominance
Undiscovered
10 000-
Discovered
DTP

5 000-
-

0
EP
0
100
50
Years
TUrRR
Unrecovered
RTP
-
Technically Recoverable Resource
Remaining (TRRR)
Production Rate
PP

CAIR
Recovered
238
Could this model be applied in the health sector ?
239
Alle Pasienter
Shift in loop-dominance
Technological progress
Progress in utilization
Patients treated
Untreated
-
Progress

Treated
240
A diffusion model
241
Managementfrom aSystem DynamicsperspectiveSt
rengthenfavorable loopsWeakenunfavorable
loops
242
What loops arefavorable or unfavorable
variesfrom one point in timeto the next!
Note
243
Managementfrom aSystem Dynamicsperspective
In developing robust policies,management must
establish asurveillance ofloop dominance
244
so as to decide onwhich to weakenandwhich
to strengthenat any point in time
Managementfrom aSystem Dynamicsperspective
In developing robust policies,management must
establish asurveillance ofloop dominance
245
Behavior
Structure
246
Modern Problem Statement Format
SPREAD SHEET
Multimedia databases
247
Point of departure
Source Material
248
Formalization
SD-model
Source Material
249
Documentation
SD-model
Source Material
250
Design and Control
ILE
SD-model
Source Material
251
Illustration
ILE
SD-model
Source Material
252
Transparency
ILE
SD-model
Source Material
253
The Modeling Process
254
Problem articulationFormulation of dynamic
hypothesisFormulation of simulation
modelTestingPolicy design evaluation
255
A predator prey modelHLstartHL5HL6
256
Peter M. SengeThe Fifth DisciplineFrom
ArchetypestoGeneric Structures Behaviorand
back again.....
257
Archetypes
  • Limits to Growth
  • Eroding Goals
  • Escalation gt Success to the Sucessful
  • Tragedy of the Commons
  • Fixes that Fail
  • Shifting the Burden to the Intervener gt
    Dependency Addiction

258
Class of Challenges
Problem Symptom
-
Own solution
259
Class of SolutionsShifting the burden to an
intervener
Intervention
-
Problem Symptom
-
Own solution
260
Class I of Side EffectsDependence
Intervention
-

Problem Symptom
Ability to solve
-
Own solution
261
Class II of Side EffectsAddiction
Quality of Intervention

Intervention
-

Problem Symptom
Ability to solve
-
Own solution
262
A Dynamic Story Problem Behavior
263
(No Transcript)
264
Backlog
265
Backlog
266
Backlog
267
Backlog
268
Backlog
Backlog Management
269
Backlog
Backlog Management
270
Ideal Structure
Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Backlog Adjustment
-
Des Repair Rate
271
(No Transcript)
272
A Dynamic Story Additional Evidence
273
(No Transcript)
274
Backlog
Backlog Management
275
Backlog
Backlog Management
276
Problem Structure
Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Backlog Adjustment
-
Des Repair Rate
Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
277
(No Transcript)
278
SolutionOvertime
279
Backlog
Backlog Management
280
Backlog
Backlog Management
281
Long term solution
Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Backlog Adjustment
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate
-
Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
282
Long term solution
Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Backlog Adjustment
-
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate

Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
283
Trouble I Dependence
Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
Backlog Adjustment
-
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
284
Trouble II Addiction
MTBF

Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
Backlog Adjustment
-
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
285
Trouble II Addiction
MTBF

Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
Backlog Adjustment
-
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
286
Complexity
MTBF
Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
Backlog Adjustment
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate
Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
287
Neg. Feedback
MTBF
Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
-
Backlog Adjustment
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate
Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
288
Pos. Feedback
MTBF

Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
-
Backlog Adjustment
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
289
Delay
MTBF

Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
-
Backlog Adjustment
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
290
Non-linearity
MTBF

Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
-
Backlog Adjustment
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
291
Overtime
1.25-
Graph
1-
Schedule pressure
o.8-
1
o.5
1.5
292
MTBF
1-
?
Schedule pressure
?
1
o.5
1.5
293
Non-linearity
MTBF

Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
-
Backlog Adjustment
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
294
Uncertainty
MTBF

Backlog
Repair Rate
Order Rate
Effect of Over- time On Repair Rate
Expected Over- time
-
Backlog Adjustment
-
Schedule Pressure
Des Repair Rate


Des Workforce
Workforce
Normal Repair Rate
Hire Rate
295
Class of Challenges
Problem
-
Own solution
296
Instance of a Challenge
Under-/Over- Capacity
-
Recruitment
297
Class of SolutionsShifting the burden to an
intervener
Intervention
-
Problem
-
Own solution
298
Instance of a SolutionShifting the burden to
the workforce
Overtime
-
Under-/Over- Capacity
-
Recruitment
299
Class I of Side EffectsDependence
Intervention
-

Ability to solve
Problem
-
Own solution
300
Instance I of a Side EffectDependence on
Overtime
Overtime
-
Under-/Over- Capacity

Ability/willingn. to recruit
-
Recruitment
301
Class II of Side EffectsAddiction
Quality of Intervention

Intervention
-

Ability to solve
Problem
-
Own solution
302
Instance II of a Side EffectIncreasing load
through decreased MTBF
MTBF

Overtime
-
Under-/Over- Capacity

Ability/willingn. to recruit
-
Recruitment
303
(No Transcript)
304
Modern Problem Statement Format
SPREAD SHEET
Multimedia databases
305
Point of departure
Source Material
306
Formalization
SD-model
Source Material
307
Documentation
SD-model
Source Material
308
Design and Control
ILE
SD-model
Source Material
309
Illustration
ILE
SD-model
Source Material
310
Transparency
ILE
SD-model
Source Material
311
Utnyttlesesløkke-dominans
10 000-
Behandlede
-


5 000-
Ubehandlede
0
0
100
50
Years
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