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Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008

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Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil and ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008


1
Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in
Water Year 2008
  • Andy Wood
  • Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas
  • Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier
  • Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  • for
  • Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2008
    Water Year
  • UW Climate Impacts Group
  • October 17, 2007, Boise, ID

2
Presentation Outline
1. Introduction UW Experimental Hydrologic
Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007
Discussion and 2008 Outlook
3
IntroductionUW Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast
System
PI Dennis Lettenmaier, UW Current
Sponsors NOAA CPPA program, UW CSES
www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/westwide/
4
Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System
Snowpack Initial Condition
Soil Moisture Initial Condition
5
Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting
recently observed meteorological data
ensemble of met. data to generate forecast
Spin-up
Forecast
ICs
hydrologic state
obs
IC initial conditions
6
Streamflow Forecast Results West-wide at a
Glance
7
Hydrologic Analyses
Applications streamflow
Flow location maps give access to monthly
hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data.
8
Presentation Outline
1. Introduction UW Experimental Hydrologic
Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007
Discussion and 2008 Outlook
9
The PNW hydrologic cycle
  • soil moisture near annual low
  • runoff near low
  • nearly all water year precipitation yet to come
  • snow season not really underway
  • evaporation not a factor

Average annual water cycle
PNW
Where we are now on average
10
The PNW hydrologic cycle
Note that there is variability in soil moisture
now
basin averages
current
11
Recap WY2007, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions
Soil Moisture
SWE
12
Recap WY2007, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions
Soil Moisture
SWE
13
Recap WY2007, Snow Obs Simulation
Observed SWE
14
Recap WY2007, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions
Soil Moisture
SWE
15
Winter 2006-07 seasonal volume forecast for
APR-SEP
OBS
Forecasts made on 1st of Month
16
Slides
  • Since last winter
  • spring late summer precip was low
  • one heat outbreak (in July)
  • soil moistures have dropped
  • entering new water year with a deficit

17
Oct 1 Soil Moisture Comparison with Last Year
THIS YEAR
LAST YEAR
18
La Nina-flavored Climate Outlook for Winter
Outlooks are probabilistic show tilting of the
odds
19
La Nina versus Normal conditions Oct, Nov, Dec
precip
temperature
SWE
soil moist
runoff
oct
nov
dec
20
La Nina versus Normal conditions Jan, Feb, Mar
precip
temperature
SWE
soil moist
runoff
jan
feb
mar
21
La Nina versus Normal conditions Apr, May, Jun
precip
temperature
SWE
soil moist
runoff
apr
may
jun
22
Forecast initialized Oct 1 07 Summer Volumes
Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow
ESP
ESP La Nina
Dalles 93 / 102
23
Forecast initialized Oct 1 07 Summer Volumes
Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow
ESP
ESP La Nina
Priest Rapids 96 / 103
24
Forecast initialized Oct 1 07 Summer Volumes
Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow
ESP
ESP La Nina
Snake 84 / 98
25
Snake 84 / 98
  • low soil moisture depresses flows through June
  • La Nina compensates, especially in June July

26
Forecast initialized Oct 1 07 Summer Volumes
Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow
ESP
ESP La Nina
Upper Snake 88 / 100
27
Forecast initialized Oct 1 07 Summer Volumes
Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow
ESP
ESP La Nina
Waneta 93 / 102
28
Forecast initialized Oct 1 07 Summer Volumes
Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow
ESP
ESP La Nina
Arrow 100 / 107
29
Summary
current soil moisture deficits in eastern half of
Columbia R. basin
La Nina tendencies toward wetter and colder
climate
early season forecast
30
thank you questions? aww_at_u.washington.edu
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