Post-Genomics and the Future of Human Societies: a Foresight Approach

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Post-Genomics and the Future of Human Societies
a Foresight Approach

• Excerpts from DNA Analysis for Human Health in
  the Post-Genomic Era - An APEC-wide Technology
  Foresight Study

Dr. Nares Damrongchai Policy Researcher APEC
Center for Technology Foresight National Science
and Technology Development Agency, Thailand
24 January 2004 Bangkok, Thailand
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Background

• April 2003, Human Genome Project officially
  declared complete.
• But...
• Reaping the rewards and reducing the dangers
  of technological advances demands careful
  consideration of 2 dimensions. First, how various
  socio-economic environments lead to differences
  in the pace and direction of technological
  innovation and diffusion, and second, what the
  implications are of the uses and spread of new
  technologies for economy and society
• OECD 1998 21st Century Technologies

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Integration of Post-Genomics into the Society

• Legal and regulatory infrastructure ensures
  benefit to individuals and society

PUBLIC POLICY

• Intellectual property protection
• Capital markets

• Transparency
• International standards

Post- Genomics Research
Health-care System
Translation
Development of Products and Services
Human populations and societies

• Development of new technologies
• Basic research at public and private academic
  institutions
• Education and training

• Clinical trial
• Manufacturing and marketing or distribution of
  products and services

• Insurers
• Pharmacies
• Hospitals
• Medical professionals

PRIVATE SECTOR
Adapted from David W. Beier, Life Sciences
Innovation Value Chain, 2003.
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APEC-wide Foresight Study on DNA Analysis for
Human Health in the Post-Genomic Era

• Proposing Economy Thailand
• Co-sponsors Canada Japan Philippines Chinese
  Taipei and USA
• Period mid 2002 to 2003

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Project Roadmap
2002 NOV
Overview Paper
Position Papers
Core Group Meeting 3-4 APR, BKK
2003 APR
Foresight Support And Organi- zation
Issues Papers
Web-based National Surveys
MAY AUG
APEC-wide Meeting in Bangkok
ISTWG Meeting
Preliminary findings
2004 JAN
Post- Foresight
Final Report, DEC 2003
APEC Ministerial Meeting, mid OCT
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Technological Developments and New Research
Approaches in Post-Genomics Era

• SNPs Analysis
• Microarray
• Bioinformatics
• Proteomics
• Pharmacogenomics
• Rational Drug Design
• Gene Therapy
• Population Genomics and Linkage Studies
• Genetic Profiling

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CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC
region

• The success and failure of scientific and
  technology promises. This also includes the
  speed and cost involved in the development and
  application of the technology.

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CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC
region

• Social influence. Each society may have
  similar or different attitudes based on social,
  ethnic, religion backgrounds as well as the
  interpretation of human right and human dignity
  issues. This depends on the structure and
  mechanism to educate the public, the open
  discussion and the mobilization of public
  attitudes.

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CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC
region

• The effects or perception of impacts of
  genomics to societies and the environment. This
  is a combination of the benefit, risk, adverse
  effect, past-experience of the societies, cost
  and accessibility.

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CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC
region

• Regulation of genomic research and their
  applications. These regulations can be based on
  safety, economic, or ethical reasons. For
  example, embryonic stem cells are regulated on
  the research end, and cloning on the application
  end.

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CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC
region

• The demand of the genomics-related health
  products. This is related to the success and the
  varieties of products (risk screening,
  diagnostics, intervention or therapeutic tools as
  the results of genomic research).

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CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC
region

• The genomics related business involvement. This
  include public policy to promote investment in
  genomics and the different business environment
  in each economy.

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CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development
and impact of genomics for human health in APEC
region

• Intellectual property management. In terms of
  protection of innovation and development as well
  as the accessibility and distribution of
  knowledge.

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Uncertainties
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Scenarios
strategy
prosperity
strategy
strategy
trends
strategy
2546
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2550
2551
strategy
strategy
crisis
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Scenario building
Presenting the draft
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We discovered the secret of life"