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A UK strategy for ocean biogeochemistry modelling as a component of Earth System Models

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Title: A UK strategy for ocean biogeochemistry modelling as a component of Earth System Models


1
A UK strategy for ocean biogeochemistry
modelling as a component of Earth System
Models Corinne Le Quéré University of East
Anglia British Antarctic Survey
2
decadal changes in the earths physical system
energy
water
winds
observed warming trend 1979-2005
Smith and Reynolds 2005 and IPCC 2007
3
2000-2005 CO2 budget (PgC/y)
atmosphere
4.2
fossil fuel cement emissions
land use change
land sink
7.2
1.5
2.3
ocean sink
2.2
geological reservoirs
4
decadal trend in the Airborne Fraction ?atm
CO2 CO2 emissions (FF Land Use)
Airborne fraction
(p 0.89)
1960 1970 1980 1990
2000
time
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
5
atmosphere trend 1.0 e-3 per year (p0.89)
ocean trend -1.2 e-3 per year (pgt0.95)
Canadell et al., PNAS, 2007
6
comparison with C4MIP models (10-3 per yr)
ABF
observed 1.0 expected -0.7 hadley
1.4 umd 0.6 uvic
-0.3 ccsm1 -0.1 climber
-0.4 mpi -1.4 frcgc
-1.6 loop -1.6 llnl
-1.8 bern -3.7 ipsl
-3.9
7
2000-2005 CO2 budget (PgC/y)
atmosphere
4.2
fossil fuel cement emissions
land use change
land sink
7.2
1.5
2.3
ocean sink
2.2
geological reservoirs
8
atmosphere
CO2
chemical reactions

ocean
9
Southern Ocean
sea-air CO2 flux anomaly
expected trend 0.05 PgC/y per decade
Le Quéré et al., Science 2007
10
Southern Ocean
sea-air CO2 flux anomaly
observed trend -0.03 PgC/y per decade
Le Quéré et al., Science 2007
11
Global Ocean
sea-air CO2 flux anomaly
expected trend 0.3 PgC/y per decade
Le Quéré et al., in prep.
12
Global Ocean
sea-air CO2 flux anomaly
modelled trend 0.05 PgC/y per decade
Le Quéré et al., in prep.
13
atmosphere
CO2
chemical reactions

ocean
14
Phytoplankton PFTs from satellite data May 2004
J. Aiken and PML collaborators
Blue Pico Green Nano Red Micro
Blue SL Cyanobacteria Pale Blue
Prochlorococcus Green haptophytes Red
Diatoms
S. Alvain et al., DSR 2005
15
decadal trend in the Ocean-borne Fraction ?ocean
CO2 (model) CO2 emissions (FF Land Use)
Airborne fraction
1960 1970 1980 1990
2000
time
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
16
atmosphere trend 1.0 e-3 per year (p0.89)
ocean trend -1.2 e-3 per year (pgt0.95)
17
comparison with C4MIP models (10-3 per yr)
ABF OBF
observed 1.0 -1.1 expected
-0.7 0.4 hadley 1.4 0.9 umd
0.6 0.7 uvic -0.3 0.3 ccsm1
-0.1 0.8 climber -0.4 0.1 mpi
-1.4 0.7 frcgc -1.6 -0.5 loop
-1.6 2.0 llnl -1.8 0.6 bern
-3.7 0.5 ipsl -3.9 1.3
18
Global Oceanic O2 changes
R. Keeling, personal comm., Rödenbeck et al.,
Tellus, in revision
19
direct measurement of air trapped in ice
20
atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
1850
280
180

650 thousand years
Siegenthaler et al. 2006
21
atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
382
2008
1850
280
180

650 thousand years
22
atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
2008
382
1958
1850
280
180

650 thousand years
23
MarQUEST and partners are developping a global
Marine Ecosystem Model based on 10 Plankton
Functional Types (PFTs)
pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
phyto-plankton
calcifiers
DMS-producers
mixed
silicifiers
24
what they do
pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
these bloom
phyto-plankton
calcifiers
DMS-producers
mixed
silicifiers
25
what they do
pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
these form shells
phyto-plankton
calcifiers
DMS-producers
mixed
silicifiers
26
what they do
pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
these respond to pH
phyto-plankton
calcifiers
DMS-producers
mixed
silicifiers
27
what they do
pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
these float
phyto-plankton
calcifiers
DMS-producers
mixed
silicifiers
28
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29
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30
what they do
pico-heterotrophs
monera
these control blooms
proto
zoo-plankton
meso
macro
31
what they do
pico-heterotrophs
monera
these produce big feacal pellets
proto
zoo-plankton
meso
macro
32
MarQUEST develops a global Marine Ecosystem Model
based on 10 Plankton Functional Types (PFTs)
  • NEMOv2 Ocean model
  • 0.5-1.5ox2o resolution
  • 31 vertical levels
  • calculated vertical mixing
  • NCEP daily forcing

pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
phyto-plankton
calcifiers
DMSp-producers
mixed
silicifiers
proto
zoo-plankton
meso
macro
Work of Erik Buitenhuis as part of MARQUEST
33
MarQUEST develops a global Marine Ecosystem Model
based on 10 Plankton Functional Types (PFTs)
  • Such models need sensible parameterisations for
  • growth rate as a function of temperature,
    light, nutrients, pH
  • knowledge of individual physiological strategies

pico-autotrophs
N2-fixers
phyto-plankton
calcifiers
DMSp-producers
mixed
silicifiers
proto
zoo-plankton
meso
macro
34
Q10 of Ingestion
example of growth as a function of temperature
for zooplankton PFTs
Hirst et al. 2003
Hirst Bunker 2003
Sailley, Rivkin, Klaas
Microzooplankton
Mesozooplankton
Macrozooplankton
35
  • QUEST activities in marine biogeochemistry
  • complexity in marine ecosystems
  • Marquest at NOC, PML, UEA QESM
  • physical models
  • Marquest at NOC and U. Reading DESIRE
  • observations
  • Marquest at U. Essex Quest fellow DESIRE
  • role of coastal ocean
  • Marquest at POL
  • feedbacks between marine ecosystems and climate
  • Marquest QQ QESM

36
  • QUEST spirit for developments in marine
    biogeochemistry
  • exploit the links between various time-scales
  • (paleo, recent past, and future)
  • (2) improve the connections between observations
    and models for
  • model parameterisations
  • model evaluation

(Both excellent points which need to be kept and
enhanced, particularly with the recognition and
exploitation of present trends)
37
Figure Andrew Manning
38
Alert (Canada)
Mauna Loa observatory (Hawaii)
Palmer (Antarctica)
39
Alert (Canada)
atmospheric CO2
time (y)
Palmer (Antarctica)
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