Title: ACRP 4-08 - Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas (RSA)
1ACRP 4-08 - Improved Models for Risk Assessment
of Runway Safety Areas (RSA)
Objective develop and validate a user-friendly
software analysis tool that can be used by
airport and industry stakeholders to quantify
risk and support planning and engineering
decisions when determining RSA requirements to
meet an acceptable level of safety for various
types and sizes of airports
Completion Date 02/15/2011
December 17, 2020
2Project Panel
- Chair
- Mr. Dana L. Ryan Cleveland Hopkins Airport
System - ACRP Staff Representatives
- Ms. Theresia H. Schatz Program Officer
- Mr. Joseph J. Brown-Snell Program Associate
- Members
- Mr. Steven G. Benson - Coffman Associates
- Ms. Diana S. Dolezal - Greater Toronto Airports
Authority - Mr. Alex M. Kashani - Metropolitan Washington
Airports Authority - Ms. Deborah T. Marino - Greater Orlando Aviation
Authority - Mr. Phillip C. Miller - California DOT
- Dr. Xiaosong "Sean" Xiao - Tetra Tech Inc.
- Liaison Representatives
- Dr. Michel Hovan - Federal Aviation
Administration - Mr. Matthew J. Griffin - Airports Council
International - North America - Dr. Richard Pain Transportation Research Board
3Project Team
- Principal Investigator
- Manuel Ayres Applied Research Associates
- Co-Principal Investigator
- Richard Speir Applied Research Associates
- Project Manager
- Hamid Shirazi Applied Research Associates
- Team Members
- Regis Carvalho Applied Research Associates
- Robert E. David RED Associates
- Derek Wong Consultant
- John Gadzinski Four Winds Consulting
- Jim Hall - Applied Research Associates
- Edith Arambula Applied Research Associates
4Briefing Outline
- Background
- Project Objective
- Project Tasks
- Data Models
- Risk Approach
- Consequence Approach
- Analysis Software
- Validation
5Background
- 55 of jet aircraft fatal accidents occurred
during landings and takeoffs (Boeing 2010) - Aircraft overruns, veer-offs and undershoots
account for most accidents in the immediate
vicinity of the runway - Runway safety areas (RSA) are capable of
mitigating the consequences of many of such
events - Many airports were built before current RSA
standards were set and some airports can not
accomodate larger areas due to physical and
environmental restrictions - FAA has embarked upon a program (Order 5200-8) to
improve non-standard RSA
6Alternatives to Improve RSAs
- Extend the RSA
- Modify or relocate the runway
- Use declared runway distances
- Implement arresting systems (e.g. EMAS)
Goal was to develop methodology with capability
to analyze either or combination of these
alternatives
7Project Goals
- Update the ACRP Report 3 accident/incident
database and collect data on aircraft runway
veer-off events - Develop risk models for frequency and location
for each type of incident landing overruns
(LDOR) landing undershoots (LDUS) landing
veer-offs (LDVO), takeoff overruns (TOOR), and
takeoff veer-offs (TOVO). - Develop approach to evaluate declared runway
distances on risk - Develop approach to assess impact of EMAS on risk
- Develop approach to model incident consequences
- Develop user-friendly analysis software
- Validate the new approach and software
8Project Tasks
9Database of Accidents and Incidents
- Organized in Microsoft Access
- 1414 events, 300 fields
- Worldwide sources NTSB, FAA AIDS, FAA/NASA ASRS,
Canada TSB, UK AAIB, French BEA, Australian TSB,
New Zealand TAIC, Singapore AAIB, Ireland AAIU,
Spain CIAIAC - Date, location, summary, airport/runway data,
flight data, weather conditions, consequences,
wreckage location, causal and contributing factors
10Events Counts of Collected Data
11Three-Part Risk Model Approach
12Frequency Models
Based on accident, incident, normal operations
and aircraft performance data
Stop Location Probability Distributions
RSA
x
y
13 Location Models Example for Overruns
x
y
14Consequence Approach
15Software Capabilities
- RSA risk analysis
- Risk of aircraft overruns, veer-off and
undershoots - Consideration of specific airport operational and
weather conditions - Assess impact of declared runway distances
- Assess impact of Engineered Material Arresting
Systems (EMAS) - User-defined RSA and EMAS configuration
- Consideration of obstacles (dimensions, location,
type)
16Field Test Airports for Validation
- Miami International (MIA)
- Ted Stevens Anchorage International (ANC)
- Lambert-St Louis International (STL)
- Spokane International (GEG)
- Joe Foss Field (FSD)
- Yeager (CRW)
- Deer Valley International (DVT)
- Ft Lauderdale Executive (FXE)
17Validation
Incidents
Accidents
18Opportunities to Use the New Tool
- Analysis of RSA alternatives in support of
cost/benefit studies - Prioritization of RSA improvements within an
airport - Statewide and Nationwide RSA improvement programs
- Support for decision making
- Evaluate impact of modifying RSA standards