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A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems

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A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems Presented to the World Future Society July 30, 2007 David Keenan Steven Vetter – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems


1
A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap for
Productive Nanosystems
  • Presented to the World Future Society
  • July 30, 2007
  • David Keenan
  • Steven Vetter
  • Hank Lederer

2
Roadmaps
  • Semiconductor Roadmaps for example
  • Equipment
  • Materials
  • Processes
  • Market and applications

3
DRAM Feature Size
Source Sematech
4
DRAM Technology Options Roadmap
Source Sematech
5
Semiconductor Roadmap Technology Characteristics
Source Sematech
6
Nanotechnology Development
  • Phase 1 - Passive nanoparticles
  • 2000-2005
  • In products today
  • Phase 2 - Active nanoparticles
  • 2005-2010
  • In development and demonstration
  • Phase 3 - Nanosystems
  • 2010-2015
  • Phase 4 - Molecular Manufacturing
  • Beyond 2015

7
Categories of Nanotechnology
  • Four categories
  • Top down, not atomically precise (like chips)
  • Top down, atomically precise (cant be done)
  • Bottom-up, not atomically precise (like spray-on
    materials)
  • Bottom-up, atomically precise
  • Highest value-added
  • Lowest waste
  • Most complex, multi-disciplinary
  • Enables large variety of products made by
    molecular nanosystems
  • Highly disruptive technology
  • Need a Roadmap to guide RD

8
Terminology
  • Nanosystems
  • Interacting nanoscale structures, components,
    and devices
  • Functional nanosystems
  • Nanosystems that process material, energy, or
    information
  • Advanced functional nanosystems
  • Functional nanosystems that incorporate one or
    more nanoscale components that have atomically
    precise structures
  • Productive nanosystems
  • Functional nanosystems that make atomically
    precise structures, components, and devices under
    programmable control
  • Atomically precise manufacturing
  • Essential for advanced functional nanosystems
    and productive nanosystems

9
Summary of Roadmap Vision Elements for Productive
Nanosystems Technology
  • Revolutionize the chemical/materials industry by
    synthesizing nanostructured materials
  • Aid in manufacturing platform nanomaterial
    building blocks to create novel nanostructured
    material formulations
  • Require fundamental understanding of
    structure-property-processing relationships at
    the nanoscale to accelerate development
  • Require a toolkit of kinetic and thermodynamic
    modeling capabilities and a database on key
    nanomaterial building block properties
  • Offer new synthetic methodologies based on
    understanding of nanoscale physics, chemistry,
    and engineering principles
  • Offer new approaches to manufacturing
    nanomaterial building blocks and nanocomposites
    due to its biological inspiration
  • Enable high-throughput nanoscale screening
    reactors to create novel material solutions and
    reveal unique structure-property relationships

10
Stages of Technology Development
11
Roadmap Leaders
  • With contributions from
  • Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
  • NanoBusiness Alliance (NBA)
  • Nano Science and Technology Institute (NSTI)
  • Semiconductor Equipment and Materials
    International (SEMI)
  • Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO)

12
Steering Committee
13
Roadmap Goals
  • Produce a document that is actionable
  • Articulate why APM, AFN, Productive Nanosystems
    are important, and their critical impact on the
    development of nanotechnology in multiple
    timeframes
  • Assess the current state of Atomically Precise
    Manufacturing development
  • Identify enabling technologies for development of
    Advanced Functional Nanosystems Productive
    Nanosystems

14
Roadmap Goals continued
  • Develop scenarios of the possible development
    pathways
  • Identify early applications to serve as drivers
  • Propose next steps in collaborative RD for
    each pathway targeted at critical enabling
    technologies necessary to develop prototypes
  • Identify critical issues for each pathway and
    prioritize the shortcomings of existing enabling
    technology platforms
  • Provide usable metrics for measuring progress

15
Benefits of Productive Nanosystems Technology
Roadmap
  • Multidisciplinary framework to shape the visions
    of future Industry Roadmaps
  • Help companies in developing strategic technology
    plans, including alliance opportunities with
    other companies
  • Basis for coordinating technology research goals
    and development programs across industries
  • Prioritizes major unmet needs and sets technology
    development targets to fulfill these needs
  • Aids in forecasting emerging technology platforms
  • Identifies emerging value growth opportunities

16
Estimated Multi-Industry Impact of Nanotechnology
Exceeds 1 Trillion by 2015
Sustainability 45 B
Healthcare 30 B
Tools 20 B
Aerospace 70 B
Materials 340 B
Chemical Manufacture 100 B
Pharmaceuticals 180 B
Electronics 300 B
Source National Science Foundation
17
Productive Nanosystems Capabilities and
Applications
Levels of Productive Capability
Some Applications
Control of monomer sequence in a chain
Some Atomically Precise Products
designer catalysts
engineered membranes
  • advanced materials
  • clean energy production
  • clean water
  • improved health care
  • improved computation
  • improved transportation

water purification
binders for directing self assembly
smart therapeutic devices
fuel cell membranes
Control of monomer positions in a solid
polymeric nanoparticles
molecular electronic devices
thin, flexible solar cell arrays
ceramic nanoparticles
petabyte RAM chips
programmable cell repair systems
Control of atomic positions in a solid
semiconductor devices
superstrong smart materials
nanoelectric circuits
superstrong fibers
productive nanosystems
aerospace composites
molecular machines
18
Percentage of Roadmap
Horizon IV
Horizon II
Horizon III
Horizon I
19
NNI and other Funding
  • National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) has
    devoted an average of 1 Billion per year to US
    RD since 2001
  • Rest of world governments 4 B/yr

20
Complexity vs. Cost of Phases
  • Many simple nanomaterials have been developed
    within NNI grant budgets
  • Several complex nanomaterials are being
    demonstrated costs are higher, more time
  • Nanosystems may involve more budget than NNI can
    sustain, and longer timelines
  • Molecular manufacturing has received very little
    NNI funding, so far

21
Possible Pathways
  • Dry diamondoid
  • Nanorex, Zyvex
  • Wet DNA/RNA life chemistry
  • DNA Walker / Seeman, Rothmund
  • Wet/Dry combinatorial chemistry
  • Rungs and ladders / Schafmeister

22
Indications and Implications of Nanotechnology
Progress
  • Near and far future impacts in
  • Medicine
  • Energy
  • Environment / Sustainability
  • Manufacturing
  • Security / Military
  • Space Development
  • Computation

23
Medicine / Pharmaceuticals
  • Gold nanoparticles attach to cancer cells and
    permit non-invasive IR heating

24
Nanoscale Medical Devices
Nanomedicine by Robert A. Freitas Jr. Volume I
1999 Volume IIA 2003 Volume IIB in
progress Volume III planned First thorough
analysis of possible applications of molecular
nanotechnology to medicine and medical devices
25
Respiriocytes
Artificial mechanical red blood cell 1 micron
dia. sphere Diamondoid 1000-atm pressure
vessel Deliver 236x more O2 than natural red
cells 18 billion structural atoms plus 9 billion
O2
26
Clottocytes
  • Artificial mechanical blood platelet
  • Response time 100-1000x faster than natural
    system
  • 2 micron spheres release locally sticky mesh
    that traps blood cells to stop bleeding

27
Artificial Neurons
28
Energy
  • Batteries for pluggable hybrid vehicles
  • Hydrogen storage for fuel cells
  • Solar energy

29
Energy
  • MIT nanowires for Li ion batteries
  • Gold and cobalt oxide self-assembled on modified
    virus

30
Environment / Sustainability
  • Craig Venter Synthetic Genomics minimal lifeforms
  • Method for modified microorganisms plants to
    produce ethanol directly from cellulose
  • Another to produce hydrogen directly from
    sunlight

31
Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels
  • MicroFab technologies ink jet

32
Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels
  • Nanosolar, Inc. direct printing
  • NJIT printing and directly painted-on

33
Design for Molecular Manufacturing
34
Modeling for Molecular Manufacturing
Source Nanorex
35
Desktop Manufacturing
36
Convergent assembly using highly parallel systems
37
Desktop Manufacturing
  • Nanorex NanoEngineer-1
  • Play nanofactory.mov 5 min

38
Surveillance
  • Ubiquitous Surveillance
  • Sensors/Transmitters shrink gt smart dust
  • Can see what everyone is doing stop crime
  • Privacy vs. security
  • Who watches the watchers?

39
DARPA Sensor Challenge
40
Security / Military
  • Military Intelligence is not just an oxymoron
  • It provides a strong edge in conflict
  • National immune system
  • MITs ISN Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies
  • Personal enhanced immune system
  • Weapons disarmament
  • Volatile transitions

http//web.mit.edu/ISN/
41
Space Development
  • Materials with 80x strength/weight ratio of Al or
    Steel
  • Private orbital craft
  • Finally realize Gerard K. ONeills vision of
    Space Settlements

42
Island One
43
Inside Island One
44
Larger Settlement
45
Space Development
  • Eventually, colonize other star systems
  • Mobile space settlement
  • Constant (1-g) acceleration / deceleration
  • Carry portable fusion generator
  • Get to Alpha Centauri in about 8 years (4
    subjective years)
  • Alternatively, teleportation
  • Move receiver/assembler to destination
  • Can use laser-propelled solar sail
  • Analyze molecular structure of people / objects
  • Transmit analysis
  • Assemble copy

46
Electronics / Computation
  • K. Eric Drexlers PhD Thesis (MIT)
    Nanosystems
  • 1992 Computer Science book of the year

47
Rod Logic
Sugar-cube-size computer 1015 MIPS
48
Electronics / Computation
  • Ray Kurzweil forecasts human-level intelligence
    2020
  • Once achieved, evolution will greatly
    accelerate

49
Productive Nanosystems
  • New Futures in
  • Medicine
  • Energy
  • Environment / Sustainability
  • Manufacturing
  • Security / Military
  • Space Development
  • Computation

50
Roadmap Status
  • International Technology Roadmap for
    Productive Nanosystems to be
    unveiled
  • October 9-10, 2007
  • in Arlington, VA
  • For a complete program, see
  • www.foresight.org or
  • www.sme.org/nanosystems

51
Q A
  • Which path do you favor?
  • When will we see productive nanosystems?
  • David Keenan smalltechnology_at_gmail.com
  • Steve Vetter svetter_at_mmei.com
  • Hank Lederer ledererhank_at_cs.com
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