Decision Support Services:

1
Decision Support Services

• A Review of NWS Buffalo Operationsfollowing the
  Crash of Continental Flight 3407
• Judith Levan
• Warning Coordination Meteorologist
• National Weather Service, Buffalo NY

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Continental Flight 3407Operated by Colgan
AirFebruary 12, 2009

• Departed Newark, NJ at 920 p.m. enroute to
  Buffalo, NY
• On Board
• Two pilots
• Two flight attendants
• 45 passengers

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Continental Flight 3407February 12, 2009

• Bombardier Dash 8
• Twin-engined turboprop
• Length 107 9
• Wingspan 93 3
• Fuel Capacity
• 1724 US gal

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Continental Flight 3407February 12, 2009

• Last communication with flight 1017 p.m.
• Flight 3407 crashed into a house during an
  instrument approach to Buffalo-Niagara
  International Airport. 

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Continental Flight 3407

• 50 Fatalities (49 on-board, 1 on the ground)

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Continental Flight 3407
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Continental Flight 3407
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Continental Flight 3407
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Continental Flight 3407

• 6038 Long Street, Clarence Center

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Continental Flight 3407

• Lot size
• 75 x 210
• Dash 8
• 93 span
• 107 long

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Weather and Forecast
(Accident occurred at approx 0320z)

• KBUF 130020Z 1300/1324 24015KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN
  OVC015         FM130200 25014G24KT 5SM -SHSN BR
  OVC020         FM130600 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015
  BKN060         FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025
          FM131200 32010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120
          FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030
• KBUF 130254Z 24015G22KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN021
  OVC027 01/M01 A2979
• AMD KBUF 130322Z 1303/1324 25014G24KT 3SM -SHSN
  BR OVC020 FM130500 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060
  FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025F FM131200 32010KT
  P6SM SCT025 BKN120 FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030
  
• KBUF 130354Z 24011KT 3SM -SN BR SCT011 OVC021
  01/M01 A2981

Note WFO BUF Issues TAF Forecasts Every 3 Hours
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How does one react to disaster?

• A Review of Support Provided by NWS Buffalo to
  Emergency Responders

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• Weather Forecast Office
• Typically ramp up to event
• Outlook, Watch, Warning
• Conference Calls with Partners
• Extra Staffing
• Emergency Managers / Responders
• React to events

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NWS Buffalo NY

• On duty
• Two forecasters
• Office remodeled in 2008
• Workstations focus on Situational Awareness
  Displays

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Continental Flight 3407

• 1020 p.m. Accident Occurs
• 1000 p.m. Newscast ends with breaking news of a
  possible plane crash

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Continental Flight 3407

• 1040 p.m. FAA Approach contacts NWS
• 1045 p.m. Forecaster calls office
• Office begins notifications to Regional
  Headquarters
• MIC and WCM are called
• Archiving of data begins

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Continental Flight 3407

• 1130 p.m.
• WFO contacts AOMC
• Initiate Aircraft Incident Report

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Continental Flight 3407

• 230 a.m.
• MIC arrives at office
• 430 a.m.
• WCM arrives at office
• Between 200 and 400 am Numerous media sources
  begin calling
• Initial speculation that weather was a cause
• All inquiries are referred to the FAA

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On-site Support

• By 600 a.m. the NWS had a presence at the EOC
  and began providing on-site support
• Still considered a fire-fighting operation
• With no survivors
• WCM to-go kit included
• Laptop
• Printer
• Aircard
• Cell phone
• Power Cords

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Continental Flight 3407

• Several forecasters on-station, including the
  WCM, Incident Meteorologist (IMET) and
  IMET-trainee, had ICS training
• As part of the planning branch, we provided
  real-time and forecast information
• During down-time assisted in logging and
  planning branch activities

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• Erie County utilizes Disaster Lan (D-Lan) for
  incident management
• The program has a weather page which displays
  current conditions, forecasts, radar loops. All
  of this is NWS data.
• Active weather statements/products are also
  highlighted.

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Continental Flight 3407

• NWS provided weather
• briefing at ops meetings
• (held twice daily)

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Spot Forecasts

• An internet-based interactive program
• In support of a wildfire available to any
  federal, state, tribal or local official
• For non-wildfire purposes available to Public
  Safety Officials when essential to public safety
• 43 spots forecasts from 2/13 thru 2/21

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Spot Forecasts

• Focus transitioned as the recovery operations
  progressed
• Initial forecasts smoke dispersion / HAZMAT
  releases
• Recovery Operations temperatures/precipitation
• Recovery Operations
• Heavy Equipment winds

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Continental Flight 3407

• Recovery Operations took five days
• Other than firefighting, no work was done during
  nighttime hours
• Five day recovery plan was forced by a Friday
  2/13 forecast of rain and snow on Thursday 2/19

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National Transportation Safety Board

• Meanwhile, back at the NWS Forecast Office,
  support provided to NTSB
• Aircraft Incident Reports
• ASOS Data (observations)
• RAOBs (balloon data)
• Other Warnings
• Short Term Forecasts
• Spot Forecasts

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Summary

• Reaction to Disasters Built on Instinct
• Instructions To Support Emergency Operations and
  Station Duty Manuals are Critical
• Rely on your team
• e. g. Regional Headquarters / IMETs
• Recent Efforts in Short Term Forecasting and
  Aviation Support paid off
• Situation Awareness Displays and Ops Area
  reconfiguration were an asset

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Summary

• Prior Rapport Between the Local National Weather
  Service Office and Emergency Management Community
  is Essential
• Knowledge by EM community of what types of
  support NWS can provide, including on-site

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Summary

• We were extremely fortunate to have four days of
  sunny skies and fair weather after the crash.
• Community outreach by NWS Staff makes the office
  a part of the local community

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• Questions?