Title: Characteristics of Presidencies and the PMP
1Characteristics of Presidencies and the PMP
- February 28, 2005
- Mark Payne, IDB
2What about presidencies/executives matters to the
PMP of state reform? (Inner Black Box)
- Effective decision-making, strategizing
- Competence of core decision-makers and broader
cabinet - Cabinet stability
- Cabinet cohesion in policy-making
- Effective articulation of cabinet with the
bureaucracy - Cooperativeness of relations between the
executive and congress - Effective communications/relations with broader
society
3Presidents are central to this. Why do they
govern in the way they do? Why do they appoint
who they appoint?
PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS Leadership experience,
style and skill. Political career background
party experience. Intelligence (education
experience). Communication ability.
INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT Institutionalization of
governing party and broader party system. Level
of legislative support and level of initial
popular support. Constitutional powers of the
president (legislative, appointment etc.)
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT e.g. Severity of
problems/challenges confronted.
4What personal characteristics might matter for
promoter of state reform?
- Long term vision
- Clear set of policy priorities with national
public good orientation - Flexible/adaptive
- Competent/open to expert advice
- Firm, decisive, but consensus-building in
approach - Effective leader, good communicator
- - charisma, cognitive intelligence, emotional
intelligence (Greenstein, 2000 and Gergen,
2000)
5Some preliminary questions
How much do personal characteristics and styles
of leadership matter? (Cardoso vs. Collor de la
Rua vs. Kirchner) If they do matter how do we
escape tautologies or go beyond stating the
obvious? Effective leadership makes for good
outcomes. Especially given small N are there
any generalizations that can be made linking
personal background/recruitment process to
leadership qualities or independently measurable
characteristics to governmental outcomes? What
links can be drawn between presidential
leadership qualities/styles and other
institutional features of the PMP?
6Other than sheer luck, what broad factors might
matter for getting good presidents and
presidencies?
- Recruitment process
- Electoral rules
- Institutional context for governing
- Constitutional legislative and non-legislative
powers partisan legislative support governing
party cohesion/institutionalization polarization
of party system etc.
7Institutional Setting vs. Luck
- Institutional context can make more or less
probable the nomination of candidates and the
election of presidents constrained by party ties,
helped by experience in the legislature, with
ample experience in public office etc. - But, institutional context cannot fully account
for competence, skill, charisma etc.
8Some Links between Presidency Qualities and
Institutional Context
Presidential Recruitment Process
Quality of Presidency
Type of Pres-Elect Residual Personal
Qualities Legis. Support Presidential
Powers Cohesive Cabinet
General Election Process
Type of Candidate
Source Siavelis and Morgenstern, 2004
9Recruitment Factors Affecting the Type of
Candidates/President-Elects That Emerge
- Party Variables
- Party institutionalization/ party system
institutionalization - Candidate nomination process
- Campaign financing
Electoral/Legal Variables Presidential electoral
system Timing of elections Rules on
Reelection Barriers to independent candidates
Source Siavelis and Morgenstern, 2004
10Types of Candidates
- Party insiders Candidates emerge from
long-standing, institutionalized party with
fairly cohesive ideology have held positions in
party (e.g. Lagos, Sanguinetti, Cardoso) - Party adherents Candidates emerge from outside
the core of established party or from more
personalized or fragmented party (e.g. Menem,
Febres Cordero) - Group agents Recognized leaders of specific
societal groups business, labor, indigenous,
religious. No elected presidents with this
profile. (e.g. Evo Morales) - Free-wheeling independents No long-term
identification with a party typically such
candidates use an existing small or new party as
an electoral vehicle or split-off from existing
party (e.g. Collor, Gutierrez, Chavez)
11Some sample hypotheses how institutions might
affect type of candidate
- Party insider nomination/election encouraged by
- 1) institutionalized party systems 2)
selection by party elites 3) plurality election
systems 4) concurrent elections 5) centralized
campaign finance 6) high barriers to independent
candidates 7) low party system fragmentation - Party adherent nomination/election encouraged
by - 1) more weakly institutionalized, personalistic
party systems 2) use of closed or open
primaries 3) financing somewhat decentralized - Free-wheeling independent nomination/election
encouraged by 1) weakly institutionalized/fragmen
ted party system 2) low barriers to independent
candidates 3) majority runoff system - Source Siavelis and Morgenstern, 2004
12Dataset on Backgrounds of Presidents
- 105 presidencies in 18 LA countries (complete
data for 96 presidencies) (Reelected presidents
appear as additional observation) - Covers party background, how nominated,
educational experience, previous public offices - Sources Case studies from the project of
Pathways to power Political recruitment and
Democracy in Latin America Siavelis and
Morgenstern, 2004 Biographies of political
leaders. Fundación CIDOB. http//www.cidob.org/bio
s/ - Created by Juan Cruz Perusia, IDB.
13Process Used to Select Presidents (No. of
Presidencies)
14Party Backgrounds ( of Presidencies by Country)
15Presidents Previous Role in Political Parties
16Previous Prominent Political Offices of Presidents
17Experience in the National Legislature Prior to
Election
18Education Level ( of Presidencies by Country)
19University Education Abroad ( of Presidencies by
Country)
20University/Graduate Fields of Study of Presidents
21Institutional Context for Governing
- Presidents/executives that can count on strong
partisan support in legislature or lack strong
proactive powers may be more inclined to pursue
strategy of cooperation rely on appointment
powers, agenda-setting powers instead of
legislative powers appoint party leaders in
cabinet - Presidents/executives with weak partisan support
and greater proactive powers are more likely to
try to circumvent congress by use of decree
powers and pack cabinet with personal loyalists
and technocrats - But Collor vs. Cardoso suggests that different
strategies may be possible in similar
institutional context - Source Cox and Morgenstern, 2002 Amorim Neto
(1998)
22Proactive Powers of Presidents
23Legislative Powers of Presidents
24Graphs/Tables on Partisan Powers of Presidents
- Average share of seats of governing party
- Average share of seats of governing coalition
- Effective number of parties in legislature