Characteristics of Presidencies and the PMP

1
Characteristics of Presidencies and the PMP

• February 28, 2005
• Mark Payne, IDB

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What about presidencies/executives matters to the
PMP of state reform? (Inner Black Box)

• Effective decision-making, strategizing
• Competence of core decision-makers and broader
  cabinet
• Cabinet stability
• Cabinet cohesion in policy-making
• Effective articulation of cabinet with the
  bureaucracy
• Cooperativeness of relations between the
  executive and congress
• Effective communications/relations with broader
  society

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Presidents are central to this. Why do they
govern in the way they do? Why do they appoint
who they appoint?
PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS Leadership experience,
style and skill. Political career background
party experience. Intelligence (education
experience). Communication ability.
INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT Institutionalization of
governing party and broader party system. Level
of legislative support and level of initial
popular support. Constitutional powers of the
president (legislative, appointment etc.)
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT e.g. Severity of
problems/challenges confronted.
4
What personal characteristics might matter for
promoter of state reform?

• Long term vision
• Clear set of policy priorities with national
  public good orientation
• Flexible/adaptive
• Competent/open to expert advice
• Firm, decisive, but consensus-building in
  approach
• Effective leader, good communicator
• - charisma, cognitive intelligence, emotional
  intelligence (Greenstein, 2000 and Gergen,
  2000)

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Some preliminary questions
How much do personal characteristics and styles
of leadership matter? (Cardoso vs. Collor de la
Rua vs. Kirchner) If they do matter how do we
escape tautologies or go beyond stating the
obvious? Effective leadership makes for good
outcomes. Especially given small N are there
any generalizations that can be made linking
personal background/recruitment process to
leadership qualities or independently measurable
characteristics to governmental outcomes? What
links can be drawn between presidential
leadership qualities/styles and other
institutional features of the PMP?
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Other than sheer luck, what broad factors might
matter for getting good presidents and
presidencies?

• Recruitment process
• Electoral rules
• Institutional context for governing
• Constitutional legislative and non-legislative
  powers partisan legislative support governing
  party cohesion/institutionalization polarization
  of party system etc.

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Institutional Setting vs. Luck

• Institutional context can make more or less
  probable the nomination of candidates and the
  election of presidents constrained by party ties,
  helped by experience in the legislature, with
  ample experience in public office etc.
• But, institutional context cannot fully account
  for competence, skill, charisma etc.

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Some Links between Presidency Qualities and
Institutional Context
Presidential Recruitment Process
Quality of Presidency
Type of Pres-Elect Residual Personal
Qualities Legis. Support Presidential
Powers Cohesive Cabinet
General Election Process
Type of Candidate
Source Siavelis and Morgenstern, 2004
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Recruitment Factors Affecting the Type of
Candidates/President-Elects That Emerge

• Party Variables
• Party institutionalization/ party system
  institutionalization
• Candidate nomination process
• Campaign financing

Electoral/Legal Variables Presidential electoral
system Timing of elections Rules on
Reelection Barriers to independent candidates
Source Siavelis and Morgenstern, 2004
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Types of Candidates

• Party insiders Candidates emerge from
  long-standing, institutionalized party with
  fairly cohesive ideology have held positions in
  party (e.g. Lagos, Sanguinetti, Cardoso)
• Party adherents Candidates emerge from outside
  the core of established party or from more
  personalized or fragmented party (e.g. Menem,
  Febres Cordero)
• Group agents Recognized leaders of specific
  societal groups business, labor, indigenous,
  religious. No elected presidents with this
  profile. (e.g. Evo Morales)
• Free-wheeling independents No long-term
  identification with a party typically such
  candidates use an existing small or new party as
  an electoral vehicle or split-off from existing
  party (e.g. Collor, Gutierrez, Chavez)

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Some sample hypotheses how institutions might
affect type of candidate

• Party insider nomination/election encouraged by
• 1) institutionalized party systems 2)
  selection by party elites 3) plurality election
  systems 4) concurrent elections 5) centralized
  campaign finance 6) high barriers to independent
  candidates 7) low party system fragmentation
• Party adherent nomination/election encouraged
  by
• 1) more weakly institutionalized, personalistic
  party systems 2) use of closed or open
  primaries 3) financing somewhat decentralized
• Free-wheeling independent nomination/election
  encouraged by 1) weakly institutionalized/fragmen
  ted party system 2) low barriers to independent
  candidates 3) majority runoff system
• Source Siavelis and Morgenstern, 2004

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Dataset on Backgrounds of Presidents

• 105 presidencies in 18 LA countries (complete
  data for 96 presidencies) (Reelected presidents
  appear as additional observation)
• Covers party background, how nominated,
  educational experience, previous public offices
• Sources Case studies from the project of
  Pathways to power Political recruitment and
  Democracy in Latin America Siavelis and
  Morgenstern, 2004 Biographies of political
  leaders. Fundación CIDOB. http//www.cidob.org/bio
  s/
• Created by Juan Cruz Perusia, IDB.

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Process Used to Select Presidents (No. of
Presidencies)
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Party Backgrounds ( of Presidencies by Country)
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Presidents Previous Role in Political Parties
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Previous Prominent Political Offices of Presidents
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Experience in the National Legislature Prior to
Election
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Education Level ( of Presidencies by Country)
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University Education Abroad ( of Presidencies by
Country)
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University/Graduate Fields of Study of Presidents
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Institutional Context for Governing

• Presidents/executives that can count on strong
  partisan support in legislature or lack strong
  proactive powers may be more inclined to pursue
  strategy of cooperation rely on appointment
  powers, agenda-setting powers instead of
  legislative powers appoint party leaders in
  cabinet
• Presidents/executives with weak partisan support
  and greater proactive powers are more likely to
  try to circumvent congress by use of decree
  powers and pack cabinet with personal loyalists
  and technocrats
• But Collor vs. Cardoso suggests that different
  strategies may be possible in similar
  institutional context
• Source Cox and Morgenstern, 2002 Amorim Neto
  (1998)

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Proactive Powers of Presidents
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Legislative Powers of Presidents
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Graphs/Tables on Partisan Powers of Presidents

• Average share of seats of governing party
• Average share of seats of governing coalition
• Effective number of parties in legislature