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The External Environment for Developing Countries September 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group

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Development Economics Prospects ... countries U.S. Q2-GDP grows 3.3% powered by external trade and the consumer growth of real ... commodity prices Corn, soybean, ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The External Environment for Developing Countries September 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group


1
The External Environment for Developing
Countries September 2008 The World
Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
2
Commodities retrace a part of gains on falling
demand and rising supply... commodity price
indices, January 2006100
Grains
Energy
Non-Energy
Metals / Minerals
Source DECPG Commodities Group.
3
... while equity markets see a steeper economic
downturn ahead DJI, DAX, TOPIX, and
MSCI-Dev, indexes Jan 1-08 100
Topix
Dow Jones
DAX
MSCI-EM
Source Thomson/Datastream.
4
Industrial countries
5
U.S. Q2-GDP grows 3.3 powered by external trade
and the consumer growth of real GDP, and
contributions to growth in percentage points
Net X
Gvt
PCE
Invest
dStok
Source Department of Commerce and DECPG
calculations.
6
U.S. loses jobs for an eighth consecutive month
in August change in non-farm payroll employment,
000
monthly change
3mma change
Source U.S. Department of Labor.
7
U.S. inflation will increase for a time after
commodity prices retreat Headline and Core, CPI
and PPI indexes, ch saar
PPI Headline
CPI Headline
PPI Core
CPI Core
Source Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
8
Japan Q2-GDP falls sharply on consumer and
dissapointing exports growth of real GDP, and
contributions to growth in percentage points
dStok
PCE
Invest
Net X
Source Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.
9
Japans housholds and business see darker times
ahead Tokyo consumer confidence L, Tankan
business conditions R
Tankan R
Consumer confidence L
Source Cabinet Office and Bank of Japan.
10
Japans export markets turn sluggish
contribution to growth of Japans export volumes
()
Source Bank of Japan, DECPG calculations
11
Euro Area Q2 GDP falls 0.8 on drop in
investment, weak exports growth of real GDP,
and contributions to growth in percentage points
Change in Stocks Government Net
Exports Consumption Investment
Source EuroStat and DECPG calculations.
12
European purchasing power hit hard by energy
prices Retail sales volume, ch y/y R,
HICP-energy, ch y/y L
France R
Germany R
Italy R
HICP-Energy L
Source Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.
13
German exports continue decline in July-- in
step with export orders export volumes and
overseas factory orders, ch 3mma
Export orders
Export volume
Source Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.
14
Industrial production
15
Eurozone IP plummets on weaker internal and
external demand real IP, ch (6m/6m, saar)
Germany
Eurozone
France
Source Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
16
Industrial production weakening in developing
countries outside China real IP, ch (3m/3m
saar)
Developing countries excluding China left scale
China right scale
Source Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
17
Export growth and fiscal stimulus cushion U.S.
output from deeper decline real IP ch (saar)
IP 3m/3m
IP 6m/6m
Source Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
18
International trade
19
OECD import volumes contract in the second
quarter import volumes, ch (y/y) left,
ch saar right
12m/12m annual L
3m/3m saar R
Source NL CPB and Thomson/Datastream.
20
Chinas exports ease gradually into 2008
export volumes, ch (y/y) left, ch saar right
3m/3m saar R
12m/12m annual L
Source NL CPB and Thomson/Datastream.
21
LAC exports follow U.S. imports annual volume
growth ch (12m/12m)
U.S. imports
LAC exports
Source NL CPB and Thomson/Datastream.
22
Oil prices
23
Crude oil prices plunge on increasing concerns
about demand
/bbl
WTI
Brent
Dubai
Source Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.
24
Growth in U.S. oil demand million barells per
day, 3mma (y/y)
mb/d
Source IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
25
WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX
Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013 on select
dates in 2007-08
/bbl
Jul 3 2008
Jul 31 2008
SEP 9 2008
Dec 31
Aug 15
Jan 16
Source NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.
26
Non-oil commodity prices
27
Corn, soybean, wheat prices decline on improving
supply prospects
c/bushel
Soybeans
Wheat
Corn
Source Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.
28
Metals prices fall on increasing concerns about
demand
Cu Zn /ton
Ni /ton
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Source LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
29
Gold prices drop on dollar appreciation
/toz
/euro
Gold price
/euro
Source LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
30
International Finance
31
Captial flows depressesd over July / August
Source DECPG Finance Team.
32
Global equities continue decline Mature- and
Emerging Market indices, ch
Mature Markets
Emerging Markets
Source Thomson/Datastream.
33
EM credit spreads widen in step with increasing
risk aversion EMBIG spreads, basis points
L, Equity volatility index R
EMBIG spreads L
Vix index R
Source Thomson/Datastream.
34
Currencies
35
Dollar rebounds sharply vis-à-vis the euro
USD per Euro (inverse) Left and Yen per USD
right
yen/USD
USD/Euro (inverse)
Source Thomson/Datastream.
36
European prospects dim... a key factor in the
dollars rebound Consensus forecasts for
2008 GDP growth, by month prepared.
Germany
Euro Area
USA
Source Consensus Economics Ltd.
37
Dollar broadly higher against emerging market
currencies LCU per USD indexes, Jan1
2008100 increase weaker LCU
Korean won
Turkish lira
Indonesian rupiah
Brazilian reis
Philippine peso
Source Thomson/Datastream.
38
FOCUS September 2008 U.S. takeover of Fannie and
Freddie ...market implications
39
Takeover of Fannie Freddie followed by drop in
mortgage rates... mortgage spreads in basis
points
30-year fixed mortgage rate Fed funds rate
30-year fixed mortgage rate 30-year T-Note rate
Source Federal Reserve Governors.
40
... and lower yields on U.S. Agency debt
yield on 30-year Fannie Mae bonds less Treasury
bond (basis points)
Source Bloomberg Data Service.
41
...as fiscal outlook deteriorates U.S. federal
debt held by the public, of GDP
Source Congressional Budget Office.
42
The External Environment for Developing
Countries September 2008 The World
Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
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