The NOAA Satellite Altimetry Program: Closing the Sea Level Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo and Grace

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The NOAA Satellite Altimetry Program Closing
the Sea Level Rise Budget with Altimetry, Argo
and Grace

• Laury Miller, Eric Leuliette John Lillibridge
• NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry
• Silver Spring, MD
• OCO Annual Meeting
• Silver Spring, MD
• September 3 - 5, 2008

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Program Objectives

• Create a Sea Level Climate Record -- Transition
  T/P-Jason series to full operational status
• Jason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSAT
• Jason-3 - 2013? Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSAT
• Observe Understand the Sea Level Budget --
• Need budget in order to understand processes
  responsible for sea level rise, decadal
  inter-annual variability.
• Need sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and
  tide gauge observations.
• Improve IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise
• If models fail to accurately predict the past 15
  years of SLR, what good are they for making
  50-100 year predictions?

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Jason-2/OSTM Launch June 20, 2008

• 4-Partner Mission NASA, CNES, NOAA EUMETSAT.
• Currently operating in tandem mode, flying 50
  seconds behind Jason-1 on same ground track.
• 3 hr OGDRs available to OST Science Team and
  NOAA operational users via DDS.
• 1-2 day IGDRs (better orbits, pass segmented)
  available via CLASS.
• Nov. 2008 -- OGDRs available to public via CLASS
• Apr-May 2009 -- IGDRs GDRs available to
  public via CLASS
• NOAA Project Scientist -- John Lillibridge
• NOAAs first operational oceanographic satellite!

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J-2/OSTM System Overview
Jason 2
Usingen
Wallops/ Fairbanks

EUMETSAT
NOAA
CNES
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Excellent agreement between J-2 J-1

• J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008.
• Near real time products from NOAA EUMETSAT
  since 22-July 2008.
• Offline products from CNES since 22-Aug-2008.

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• Jason-3 Joint NOAA EUMETSAT project
• Proposed 2010 Start, 2013 Launch for Overlap with
  J-2/OSTM

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Objective Create Ocean Equivalent of CO2
ClimateRecord
Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa
50 Years
Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason
1990
1980
1970
1960
2000
15 Years
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Observe Understand the Sea Level Budget
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NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website
http//ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/
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NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website
http//ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/
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NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website
http//ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/
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NOAA/LSA Altimeter Calibration Website (Under
Development)
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Improve the IPCC Projections of Sea Level Rise
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The Problem How accurate are the IPCC
projections?
Satellite altimetry
The additional land-ice uncertainty
Model projection
Reconstructed record from tide gauges
Observed rise at the upper limit of IPCC TAR
projection that includes a land-ice uncertainty
Rahmstorf et al., Science, 2007
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IPCC FAR Projections Probably Not Much
Better Model Global Mean Sea Level Trends During
TP-era, (1990-2000) Based on FAR Climate of the
20th Century Scenario (20C3M). Model GMSL
Steric Ratio (mm/yr) (mm/yr)
CGCM3.1 0.32 0.79
2.47 GISS AOM 6.11 3.51 0.57 GISS
E20/Russell 1.99 0.72 0.36 INMCM3.0 1.34
1.38 1.03 MIROC3.2 hires 2.71 2.32
0.85 MRI CGCM23.2 3.98 5.69
1.42 (Leuliette et al., 2006)
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Suggestion NOAA Obs/Model Program to Improve
Projections of Sea Level Rise

• Model projections dont agree well with 15 year
  altimeter record either globally or regionally.
  Need to improve models to have confidence in long
  term projections.
• Many elements already exist in NOAA or are
  heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason
  altimetry (a new NOAA operational
  responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and
  modeling capabilities.
• Possible broad agency involvement OAR, NESDIS,
  NOS
• Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September

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• Model projections dont agree very well with 15
  year altimeter record either globally or
  regionally. Need to improve models to have
  confidence in long term projections.
• Many elements already exist in NOAA or are
  heavily supported by NOAA, including Jason
  altimetry (a new NOAA operational
  responsibility), tide gauges, Argo floats, and
  modeling capabilities.
• Possible broad agency involvement OAR (OCO,
  GFDL, PMEL, AOML), NESDIS(STAR/LSA,NODC/OCL), NOS
• Topic for OAR/NESDIS workshop in late September

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Altimetry Now Used In Hurricane Intensity
Forecasting
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Geosat/Tide Gauge Comparison Old Orbits vs New
Orbits
ERM
GM
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Jason-2 vs Jason-1 Coverage
J2 better radiometer coverage

• Tandem mode - J2 (cycle 2) flying 50 seconds
  behind J1(cycle 241) on same ground track.
• Altimeter range measurement J2 nearly 100 over
  land ocean J1 missing over land and near (lt20
  km) coasts.
• Sea level anomaly (sla) J1 J2 coverage lose
  mostly due to radiometer rain/ice corruption flag

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Jason-2/OSTM Cal/Val Data Release

• J-2 reached exact-repeat orbit 04-Jul-2008. Near
  real time (OGDR) products from NOAA EUMETSAT
  since 22-July 2008. Offline (IGDR) products from
  CNES released to SWT on 22-Aug-2008.

Significance NOAA's role in OSTM/Jason-2
includes satellite command/control, NRT data
production, and archive distribution. This
mission assures continuity of the 15 year global
sea level climate data record begun by Topex
Jason-1, with sufficient overlap for cross
calibration and validation.
http//www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/idm/2008/jul
-2008-jason-2-on-the-tracks-of-jason-1/index.html
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Coastal Satellite Altimetry

• Altimeter measurements of sea surface height
  (SSH), significant wave height (SWH), and wind
  speed have many potential applications in coastal
  zones, despite the common perception that
  altimetry does not work near coast.
• The Problem Altimeter data processing typically
  optimized for open ocean applications. Coastal
  sampling, editing and correction issues need to
  be addressede.g.
• Use of 10 hz along track sampling instead of 1 hz
• Data flagging optimized for coasts instead of
  open ocean.
• Path length corrections optimized to minimize
  land contamination
• Improved near-shore tide models
• The Solution collaborative programs aimed at
  improving measurements and developing products.
  The Europeans are far ahead of the U.S. in this
  area.

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NOAA/LSA Sea Level Rise Website
http//ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/slr/
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Create a Climate Record of Sea Level --Transition
T/P-Jason series to operational status
Jason-2/OSTM - 2008 - NOAA/NASA/CNES/EUMETSATJas
on-3 - 2013? Beyond - NOAA/EUMETSATObserve
Understand the Sea Level Budget --Need budget in
order to understand processes responsible for sea
level rise, decadal variability, etc.Need
sustained program of Jason, Argo, GRACE, and tide
gauge observations. Improve IPCC Projections of
Sea Level RiseIf models fail to accurately
predict the past 15 years of SLR, what good are
they for making 50-100 year predictions?
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Climate Monitoring Requires Foresight Commitment
Atmospheric CO2 At Mauna Loa
50 Years
Global Sea Level From Topex/Jason
1990
1980
1970
1960
2000
15 Years
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AR4 Model-based Projections of Sea Level Rise

• Note
• No upper bound
• No likelihood
• No best estimate
• Model-based estimate only no expert judgment

(meters)
From AR4 WGI SPM
Courtesy of Ron
Stouffer, GFDL/NOAA
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15 Year (1993-2008) Altimeter Trends in Sea Level