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Casualty Actuarial Society Loss Reserve Seminar

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Closing the Books Casualty Actuarial Society Loss Reserve Seminar ALLAN R. NEIS, FCAS, MAAA September 23-24, 2002 CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINAR September 23-24, 2002 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Casualty Actuarial Society Loss Reserve Seminar


1
Closing the Books
Casualty Actuarial Society Loss Reserve
Seminar ALLAN R. NEIS, FCAS, MAAA September
23-24, 2002
2
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • CLOSING THE BOOKS--
  • APPROACHES TO DETERMINE CARRIED RESERVES
  • Al Neis, Corporate Actuary-
  • Progressive Insurance Co.
  • Tom Moylan, Vice President Actuary -
  • Liberty Mutual Ins. Co.
  • Joe Marker, Sr. Vice President Chief Actuary
  • Marker Actuarial Services, LLC
  • Adam Hartman, Associate Actuary
  • USAA

3
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • Month-End Process
  • Friday Night
  • Premium System Closes
  • Claim System Closes
  • Saturday Morning
  • Month-End Databases Start their update
  • Saturday Evening
  • Feeds to the General Ledger Begin
  • Sunday Afternoon
  • General Ledger Postings are Complete
  • Downstream Databases Start their Updates
  • Sunday Evening
  • Month-End Reports are Produced

4
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • AFTER RESERVE BALANCES ARE POSTED, SOME QUESTIONS
    WE FACE!
  • IS THE FINAL BALANCE WHAT YOU EXPECTED?
  • WILL THE STATE OF OHIO THINK BALANCE IS NOT
    ENOUGH?
  • OUTSIDE AUDITORS WILL QUESTION THE ADEQUACY!
  • IRS THINKS THE BALANCE IS OVERSTATED (10)
  • GENERAL MANAGERS - AMOUNT IS TOO HIGH!
  • WONT GET A BONUS BECAUSE OF THE INFLATED
    RESERVES
  • CANNOT CHARGE COMPETITIVE RATES SINCE THE
    INCCURRED LOSSES ARE OVERSTATED
  • ANALYSTS - IS THE COMPANY MANAGING RESULTS?
  • HIDING PROFITS
  • INFLATING THE BOTTOM LINE

5
GATES OF HELL The Far Side
OK, Sir, Would you like inferno or
non-inferno? Ha! Just Kidding. Its all
inferno, of course I just get a kick out of
saying that.
6
OK, Sir, Would you Like your reserves
increased Or do you just want them to go up? Ha!
I just like asking that .
7
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE
  • RESERVE BALANCES ARE SET PRIMARILY USING
  • AVERAGE RESERVES (CASE)
  • FACTORS APPLIED TO HISTORIC EARNED PREMIUM (IBNR)

8
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE
  • CASE RESERVES
  • AVERAGE RESERVES
  • VARY BY AGE OF CLAIM
  • DIFFER BY POLICY LIMIT GROUPS
  • ADJUSTED MONTHLY FOR EXPECTED INFLATION
  • ADJUSTER ESTIMATES ARE USED IF GREATER THAN
    THRESHHOLD
  • ADJUSTER ESTIMATES ARE INFLATED BY A FACTOR TO
    COVER CASE DEVELOPMENT IN LAYER ABOVE THRESHOLD
    (ANCR)
  • AVERAGE RESERVE ARE ADJUSTER MONTHLY FOR EXPECTED
    INFLATION

9
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE
  • IBNR
  • BOOKED TO GENERAL LEDGER FROM THE RESERVE
    DATABASE
  • DETERMINED AS OF EARNED PREMIUM BY AGE
  • IBNR IS GENERALLY CALCULATED FOR UP TO FOUR YEARS
  • LAE IBNR IS SET AS A OF LOSS IBNR

10
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE
  • AVERAGE RESERVES AND IBNR FACTORS MAY VERY BY A
    COMBINATION OF
  • COMPANY
  • STATE
  • REGION
  • PRODUCT (AUTO, MOTORCYCLES, COMMERCIAL VEHICLE,
    ETC.
  • COVERAGE (BI, PD, ETC.
  • THE CASE TABLE IN THE CLAIM SYSTEM INCLUDES
    APPROXIMATELY 3,000 LINES
  • THE IBNR TABLE INCLUDES APPROXIMATELY 1500 LINES

11
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE
  • ALLOCATION OF RESERVE BALANCES TO PROFIT CENTERS
  • HAPPENS AS A RESULT OF ROLLING UP THE DETAIL
  • CASE RESERVES (AVERAGES) ARE AT THE CLAIMANT
    LEVEL
  • IBNR IS CALCULATED AT A PREMIUM SUMMARY LEVEL
    (CO., ST., PRODUCT, LINE COVERAGE)

12
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE RESERVE REVIEWS
  • CONDUCTED ON SEGMENTS THAT SUPPORT INCOME
    STATEMENT FOR GENERAL MANAGERS
  • LARGE ENOUGH SEGMENTS TO BE CREDIBLE, BUT
    SEGMENTED TO BE HOMOGENEOUS - THUS TO PROVIDE
    MORE ACCURACY OVERALL
  • A SEGMENTS SCOPE ALLOWS PROCESS CHANGES (CLAIMS)
    WITHIN A REGION/STATE TO BE REFLECTED IN THE
    INDICATIONS

13
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE RESERVE REVIEWS (CONTINUED)
  • GENERATE
  • OVERAL NEEDS USING ACCIDENT PERIOD DATA
  • CASE RESERVE INDICATIONS USING RECORD PERIOD DATA
  • IBNR INDICATIONS USING ACCIDENT WITHIN RECORD
    PERIOD DATA
  • RECONCILE THE DIFFERENT INDICATIONS
  • MULTIPLE SEGMENT RESERVE REVIEWS ALLOW
  • INPUT TO PRICING ON OVERALL TRENDS
  • CHANGE IN RESERVES IMPACT ON INCOME STATEMENT ARE
    DRIVEN BY PROCESSES AND EXPERIENCE WITHIN PROFIT
    CENTER

14
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE
  • ACTUARIAL REPORT
  • COMPLETED AFTER YEAR END CLOSE
  • AT COMPANY LEVEL AND GENERALLY AT THE ANNUAL
    STATEMENT LINE OF BUSINESS
  • INCLUDES INDICATION OF NEEDED RESERVES NET OF
    REINSURANCE
  • ISSUES MAY ARISE WHEN MORE THAN ONE COMPANY IS
    WRITING IN A STATE WHICH IS THEIR PRIMARY STATE.

15
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVES ADVANTAGE
  • PRIMARILY PRIVATE PASSENGER AUTO
  • CASE RESERVES MAKE UP 80-85 OF LOSS RESERVES
  • LAE RESERVES ARE APPROXIMATELY 15 OF TOTAL
    LIABLITY
  • POLICY LIMITS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT
    IN EXTREME TAIL
  • COMPARATIVELY HIGH FREQUENCY, LOW SEVERITY ALLOWS
    EASY ROLL UP TO VARIOUS PROFIT CENTER

16
CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINARSeptember 23-24,
2002
  • PROGRESSIVE
  • RESERVES ARE OPENLY DISCUSSED AT ALL LEVELS OF
    MANAGEMENT
  • REPORTED ON IN THE ANNUAL REPORT
  • REPORT ON RESERVING PRACTICES IS AVAILABLE ON
    WEBSITE PROGRESSIVE.COM
  • RESERVES ARE NOT SET BY MANAGEMENT, THEY ARE SET
    BY THE CORPORATE ACTUARY

17
Closing the Books
Casualty Actuarial Society Loss Reserve
Seminar September 23-24, 2002
18
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
Overview I. History - Where were we? II.
Objectives - Where do we want to be? III .
Process - How do we get there? IV. Questions
Answers
19
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
  • History - Regional Agency Markets
  • Between 1997 and 2002 Liberty created its
    Regional Agency Market (RAM) Strategic Business
    unit, primarily through acquisitions
  • RAM currently writes approximately 3 Billion in
    premium, through nine regional companies using
    independent agents as the sole distribution
    channel
  • The majority of the business is comprised of
    smaller commercial lines accounts and personal
    lines
  • The acquired companies varied in size, scope and
    sophistication.
  • Each followed different approaches to closing the
    books.

20
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
  • History - Some Approaches to Booking IBNR
  • Put all the data in (commercial reserving
    package - name deleted) and book what comes out
  • Wait until we get the Actuarial Report and book
    the indicated
  • Book to our planned loss ratio, review annually
  • Book long tail lines to a loss ratio, short tail
    lines to a factor off of earned premium
  • Build up current AY IBNR as a factor off earned
    premium, run-off prior year IBNR based on
    schedule, allowing prior year case activity
    better or worse than anticipated to run through
    income.

21
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
  • Objectives - Where do we want to be?
  • Maintain reserve adequacy in aggregate
  • Allow for judgement, but dont fool ourselves
  • Efficient - five day close
  • Provide operating entities monthly income
    statements with minimal distortions
  • Allocation of IBNR to very fine segments
    (state/product/legal entity etc.)
  • Consistency between direct and ceded IBNR

22
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
  • Process - How do we get there?
  • Region/Summary Line
  • Current Accident Year - Long Tail lines (WC, CMP
    Liability, Umbrella, Commercial and Personal Auto
    Liability) - Book both direct and ceded to
    planned loss ratios (updated quarterly).
  • Prior Accident Years - Long Tail Lines - Reduce
    direct IBNR by case activity in primary layer
    plus scheduled amount in excess (ceded) layer.
    Reduce ceded IBNR by same scheduled amount.
  • Short tail lines (CMP Other, Homeowners, Other
    Property, Commercial and Personal Auto Physical
    Damage) - IBNR determined by factor off of
    trailing 12 months earned premium. Case activity
    allowed to flow through income statement.

23
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
  • Process - How do we get there?
  • State/Product Line/Legal Entity
  • Total IBNR by Region/Line is then allocated to
    finer levels of detail
  • Current Accident Year based on earned premium.
  • Prior Accident Years based on prior month ending
    case reserves

24
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
  • Process - How do we get there?
  • Review Process
  • Quarterly Reserve reviews performed by RAM home
    office actuarial within six weeks of quarter
    close, peer reviewed by Liberty corporate.
    Standard lines, exhibits, methodologies.
    Specialized approaches where appropriate.
  • Company Actuaries have two weeks to recommend
    revised booking ratios for the current accident
    year.
  • RAM Actuary CFO make final selections in time
    for close of 2nd month after end of quarter.

25
Closing the Books - CLRS 2002 Multiple
Companies/Lines
Current AY Review Exhibit
26
Questions Discussion
27
CLOSING THE BOOKS WITH PARTIAL INFORMATION
  • By Joseph Marker, FCAS, MAAA
  • CLRS, Arlington,VA, September 2002

28
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Loss and LAE Reserves
  • The loss and loss expense reserve is the balance
    sheet item with the most uncertain value.
  • This reserve is studied in great detail at
    periodic intervals.
  • Often the books are closed with no reserve study
    done in time for the closing, such as
  • At quarterly valuations, when reviews are not
    done every quarter,
  • At quarterly valuations, if current reserve
    review cannot be done in time.
  • At monthly intervals, if reviews are done every
    quarter.
  • From here on, assume that we are dealing with
    quarterly closings.

29
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Information Available at Closing
  • At closing time, various levels of information
    may be available
  • 1. A full reserve review on data as of the
    current quarter, or
  • 2. No reserve review, but actual loss
    development through the current quarter, e.g.
  • Paid and outstanding loss and loss expense by
    accident year.
  • Paid and outstanding claim counts.
  • Earned premiums and earned exposures.
  • 3. Payment information only.
  • We assume that information described in (2) is
    available.

30
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Expected Loss Development Exhibit 1
  • Company XYZ is closing its books as of 3/31/2001.
  • A full loss reserve review is available as of
    12/31/2000.
  • XYZ uses Exhibit 1 to determine its expected
    development during the 1st quarter.
  • Shows the chain ladder methods (paid and
    incurred) through 12/31/2000.
  • Separates calendar period development into
    current year vs. future.
  • Separates current calendar year development
    into current quarter vs future.
  • Requires a selected ultimate loss as of
    12/31/2000 by accident year.

31
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Loss development Current quarter vs. Future
  • Additional development on each accident year
    equals
  • selected ultimate minus developed loss to date
    (12/31/2000)
  • The proportion developing in the next calendar
    year (2001) is given by
  • LDF (to next age) 1.0 divided by
    LDF (to ultimate) 1.0
  • We need to know the proportion of the annual
    development expected in the 1st quarter.

32
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Loss development Current quarter vs. Future
  • We need to know the proportion of calendar year
    2000 development expected to emerge in the 1st
    quarter.
  • This proportion is determined externally
  • May be based on quarterly development studies.
  • For long-tail lines, the number may be close to
    25.
  • For short-tail lines, the number may be close to
    100.
  • Most difficult to assess for the immediate past
    accident year.

33
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Exhibit 1 output
  • From the incurred (paid) development exhibit, we
    get
  • Projection of IBNR (Paid) emergence during the
    current year.
  • Projection of IBNR (Paid) emergence during the
    current quarter.
  • Limitations of Exhibit 1
  • Uses only the standard age-to-age LDF methods.
  • Does not estimate the loss amount for the current
    accident year.
  • Exhibit 1 is easily modified to handle
    Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.

34
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Expected Claim Counts
  • Applying Exhibit 1 logic to claim counts rather
    than loss dollars, we get
  • Projection of number of new claims in the current
    year and partial year.
  • Projection of number of claims paid in the
    current year and partial year.
  • Apply projected counts to estimated severity to
    project loss dollars.

35
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Actual Development
  • Exhibit 2 brings in the actual paid and developed
    loss for the quarter.
  • Differences between actual and expected
    development lead to Recalculation of the ultimate
    loss
  • It is important that the exhibit show quantities
    meaningful to management.
  • Exhibit 2 uses expected quarterly development,
    actual development and expected future
    development.
  • It asks for the revised development expected
    after the current quarter.

36
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Revising the Ultimate Loss XYZ Company
  • How might we revise our estimate of ultimate
    loss?
  • Look at several methods for clues.
  • Exhibit 2 implies that payments are accelerating.
  • However, payments are greater than the
    corresponding reserve takedowns.
  • The temptation is to conclude that
  • The revised expected future payments will be
    faster than previously thought
  • The revised expected future development will be
    upward

37
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Revising the Ultimate Loss XYZ Company
  • To validate the conclusion we may compare
  • Development on reported claims versus reporting
    of new claims.
  • Expected versus actual claim counts.
  • It is important to separate case development vs
    pure IBNR. To do this,
  • Separate development between case and IBNR in the
    exhibits, or
  • Run the exhibits by report year rather than
    accident year.
  • Talk with Claims to gain insight into unexpected
    development.

38
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Current Accident Year
  • We have not discussed setting reserves for the
    current accident year 2001.
  • To do this, use exhibits where projections are
    based on
  • Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods rather than straight
    LDF methods
  • Pricing projections will most likely be the key
    information used.
  • Common methods for estimating the current
    accident year are
  • Fix the loss ratio based on pricing studies
  • Use the fixed loss ratio along with a projected
    payout pattern and adjust the loss ratio for the
    difference between actual and expected payments.
  • Use frequency-severity methods and track claim
    count reporting.

39
Closing the Books with Partial information - CLRS
2002
  • Summary
  • When closing the books without a current reserve
    evaluation, Use the actual development to date to
    modify previous reserve estimates.
  • Deal with quantities that make sense to
    management, such as
  • Actual versus expected development.
  • Keep the explanatory exhibits simple and few.
  • Use the exhibits to enlist help from other
    departments in explaining variances.

40
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41
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42
Closing the Books
  • Casualty Actuarial Society Loss Reserve Seminar
  • Adam D. Hartman, ACAS
  • September 23-24, 2002

43
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Outline
  • What is USAA?
  • USAAs short-tailed book of business
  • USAAs reserving philosophy
  • Evolution of financial reporting process
  • Mechanics of current reserving process
  • Concluding remarks

44
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • USAA Background
  • United Services Automobile Association
  • 1922 Reciprocal, founded by a group of 25 Army
    officers in San Antonio, TX.
  • 2002 Property Casualty, Life, Federal Savings
    Bank, Investment Management
  • Seeking to become the provider of choice for the
    military community

45
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • USAA Recent Accolades
  • 2001 American Banker rates USAA 1 financial
    services company
  • 2002 J.D. Power Associates Chairmans Award
  • 2001 Fortune 500 (215th in U.S.)
  • 2001 Worth Readers Choice Survey rates USAA 1
    life, auto, and home insurance
  • 2002 Ward 50 benchmark company for both USAA PC
    and USAA Life

46
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • USAA PC Vital Statistics at 12/31/2001
  • 7th largest writer of Private Passenger Auto with
    4.5 billion in direct written premium
  • 5th largest writer of Homeowners/Renters with
    1.4 billion in direct written premium
  • A.M. Best ? Superior (A)
  • Moodys ? Exceptional (Aaa)
  • Standard Poors ? Extremely Strong (AAA)

47
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
Estimated Ultimate Losses as of 6/30/02 (Excludes
Catastrophes and Flood)
48
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
Distribution of Losses as of 12/31/2001
Total Paid Losses
Total Loss Reserves
Note x-cats, LTD, Flood, Gross of Sal/Sub
49
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
USAA PC Loss Reserving Mission Statement
Establish required liabilities for accurate
statutory and GAAP financial reporting and
provide timely and pertinent internal loss and
loss adjustment expense information to enable
prudent management decision-making.
50
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Loss Reserving Philosophy
  • Establish accident year ultimate losses LAE as
    accurately as possible, balancing these
    constraints
  • Data availability/legacy systems
  • Inherent volatility of experience
  • Analysis time
  • Consistency of message from one valuation to the
    next
  • Communicate trend changes and variances of Actual
    from Plan concisely, in terms of fundamental cost
    drivers (in non-actuarial terms)

51
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Management desires for financial reporting
  • The right answer, right now, in English
  • Little change in prior accident year estimates
  • Fast, frequent, consistent financial closing
  • Explanations tailored to the lay audience
  • No surprises
  • Nominal variances to Plan
  • Knowledge/control of the CYTD incurred for the
    upcoming financial statement

52
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Recording Monthly Losses Options
  • Option 1 Incurred Losses
  • - Paid Losses
  • - Case Reserves
  • IBNR
  • Management sets Incurred Losses and solves for
    IBNR.
  • Option 2 IBNR
  • Paid Losses
  • Case Reserves
  • Incurred Losses
  • Management sets IBNR and solves for Incurred
    Losses.

?Option Selected
53
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
Speeding up the financial reporting process
Valuation Dates Financial Statement Financial Statement Revision of ultimates Revision of ultimates
Valuation Dates Freq Deadline Freq Deadline
Mar 97 lt Qtr workday 15 Qtr workday 7
Jun,Sep 97 Qtr calendar day 10 Qtr workday 2
Oct97-Sep01 Month workday 4/5 Qtr workday 2
gt Oct 01 Month workday 4 Month workday 2
54
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • The Closing Process as of September, 2002
  • Monthly financial statements
  • In full detail, every month
  • Close the books by working day 4
  • Pre-approval of the calendar period incurred
  • Estimates of ultimate approved prior to month-end
  • IBNR falls out of month-end processing, but
  • IBNR not allowed to be negative for a cell
  • IBNR gaps diagnosed and filled in on day 1

55
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
Reserving process at September, 2002
Non-Cat Auto Material Damage Non-Cat All Other Catastrophes
Organization of loss data 20 AQs _at_2,5,8,11,12 15 AYs _at_3,6,9,12 Cat within AY _at_1-12 daily
Analysis Lag 1-3 months, varies by month 1-3 months, varies by month Days to 1 month, varies by cat
56
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Preventing negative IBNR
  • On working day 1 after mm/dd/yyyy, for a
    particular analysis cell
  • IBNR(cell) MAX(0, Est UltPaidCase Res),
  • Where
  • Est Ult is based upon detailed analysis of data 1
    to 3 months old (or the Plan)
  • Paid, Case Reserves are as of mm/dd/yyyy

57
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Guidelines for filling in IBNR gaps
  • In addition to preventing negative IBNR.
  • In general, IBNR reserves should be increasing
    from the oldest accident year to the most recent
    full accident year.
  • On months between quarterly analyses, IBNR
    reserves for a cell can be adjusted upward or
    downward, using an exponential fit across AYs.
  • IBNR reserves will be trued-up during standard
    quarterly analysis.

58
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Special characteristics allowing IBNR curve fit
  • Monotonically increasing volume of business.
  • Consistency in book of business resulting from
    very low cancellation rate. (Little turnover.)
  • Comparatively stable pure premium trends from
    accident year to the next for personal lines.

59
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Judgmental considerations
  • Materiality of the indicated change.
  • Changes in underwriting.
  • Variations in growth (some cells may actually
    have decreasing volume over time).
  • Changes in Claims practices.
  • Distorting impact of individual large claims.

60
Closing the Books CLRS 2002USAA
  • Concluding remarks
  • Pressure to close books more often, more quickly,
    and more accurately will only increase as
    technology, management, regulation, and PC
    insurance market players evolve.
  • Reserving actuaries must guard against
    over-analysis, yet make quick adjustments that
    anticipate results of upcoming analysis while
    still maintaining actuarial standards of
    practice.
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