Knowledge Management for UEFA Champions League

1
Knowledge Management forUEFA Champions League
By Harsha Gunnam Hetal Mehta Nargis Memon Manish
Wadhwa
2
Individual Contributions
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Tasks Harsha Hetal Nargis Manish
Initial Research ? ? ? ?
Literature Review ? ?
Data Extraction ? ? ? ?
Database Creation ? ?
Coefficient Analysis ? ?
Ranking Analysis ? ?
Trend Analysis ? ? ? ?
Prediction of Winners ? ? ? ?
Testing of Results ? ? ? ?
Final Report Presentation ? ? ? ?
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Agenda
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
4
Introduction
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• UEFA - The governing body of football on the
  continent of Europe
• Champions League
• Started in 1992
• Most Prestigious Trophy in the Sport
• Current Champion AC Milan
• Format

UEFA Champions League Competition System UEFA Champions League Competition System
1st qualifying round 24
2nd qualifying round 1612
3rd qualifying round 1814
Group stage 1616
First knock-out round 16
Quarter finals 8
Semi-finals 4
Final 2
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Research Objectives
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
6
Literature Review
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in
  UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal
  RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper 138
• Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie,
  Performance evaluation of the English Premier
  Football League with data envelopment analysis.
  Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006)
  1449-1458
• http//www.betinf.com/champ.htm
• Sports Betting Information
• http//www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa
  -champions-league/
• Online Betting Guide
• http//en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/
• Online Predictor Game

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Research Design
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Coefficient Analysis
Head-to-Head Probability
UEFA Data Source
Ranking Analysis
Data Extraction
Array of Winners
Top 3 Leagues
Excel
Home Away Advantage
Top 12 Teams
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Data Sources
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• UEFA Data Source
• http//www.xs4all.nl/kassiesa/bert/uefa/
• Data collected over 6 seasons
• 2002-2008
• Attributes -

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Basic Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Coefficient Analysis

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Coefficient Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Standard UEFA Calculations
• Country Coefficient Number of Points/Number of
  Teams
• Calculation Accuracy 100
• Team Coefficient Number of Points 33 of
  Country Coefficient
• Calculation Accuracy 100

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Basic Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Ranking Analysis

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Predicted Ranking
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Accuracy 100
• Years Considered 2003-2008
• Country Ranking Summation of 5 years of Country
  Coefficients
• Team Ranking Summation of 5 years of Team
  Coefficients

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Ranking Analysis - Leagues
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Observations
• Spain, England and Italy Top three leagues for
  the past six seasons
• Romania Rapid Improvement

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Top Leagues Teams
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
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Ranking Analysis - Teams
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Observations
• Consistent Team FC Barcelona
• Rapid Improvement Chelsea

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Interesting Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Probability Analysis

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Head-to-Head Probability Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Technique
• Naive Bayes
• Observations
• Strength 6 Teams
• Weakness FC Barcelona

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Head-to-Head Probability Testing
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Team Opponent 2003-07 2008 Prediction
AC Milan Celtic 0.5 0 OK
AC Milan Shakhtar Donetsk 1 1 OK
Arsenal Sparta Praha 1 1 OK
AS Roma Dinamo Kiev -1 1 NOT OK
AS Roma Manchester United 0 -0.75 OK
AS Roma Real Madrid -0.5 1 NOT OK
Chelsea Valencia 0.5 1 OK
FC Barcelona Celtic 0.5 1 OK
Manchester United Olympique Lyon 0 0.5 OK
Real Madrid Olympiakos Piraeus 0.5 0.5 OK

• Technique
• Comparison of the signs of the difference between
  the win probability and the lose probability
• Matched signs Correct Prediction
• Different signs Incorrect Prediction
• Assumption
• Difference of zero (win-loss) favors both ways
• Accuracy 80

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Interesting Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Home-Away Analysis

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Home Away Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Technique
• Mapped advantage on the basis of strength.
• Strength level decided by the difference in goals
  scored
• Very Strong Win with a difference of 2 or more
  goals
• Strong Win with a difference of 1 goal
• Weak Draw or lose with a difference of 1 goal
• Very Weak Lose with a difference of 2 or more
  goals

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Home Away Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Observations
• Strongest Home Team AC Milan
• Weakest Home Team Real Madrid
• Strongest Visiting Team Liverpool
• Weakest Visiting Team Chelsea

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Interesting Findings
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Winners Analysis

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Prediction of Winners
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Technique
• Assigned values to strength levels
• Aggregated the values of the strength levels
• Team Win Probability (Aggregated Strength Value
  Probability) / Number of Matches

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Testing of Final Prediction
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Dataset considered 2003-2007
• Accuracy
• Home Win 90
• Away Win 100

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Conclusion
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
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Applications Future Work
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
Applications
Future Work
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References
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in
  UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal
  RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper 138
• Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie,
  Performance evaluation of the English Premier
  Football League with data envelopment analysis.
  Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006)
  1449-1458
• Websites
• http//www.betinf.com/champ.htm
• http//www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/ue
  fa-champions-league/
• http//en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/
• http//www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html
• http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_Leag
  ue
• http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem
• http//www.xs4all.nl/kassiesa/bert/uefa/
• http//www.soccerbase.com/
• http//europeancups.altervista.org/

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Thank You
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources

• Thank You
• Dr. Hsinchun Chen
• Yulei Zhang (Gavin)
• Yan Dang (Mandy)

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Questions
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
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Head-to-Head Probability Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
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Head-to-Head Probability Analysis
Objectives
Basic Findings
Interesting Findings
Future Work
Conclusion
Process
Introduction
Sources
FC Barcelona Vs Others
Liverpool Vs Others