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Fracking good or fracking bad ? Is unconventional gas good for the planet and good for the economy? David P. Knight FEASTA and WinACC

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Title: Fracking good or fracking bad ? Is unconventional gas good for the planet and good for the economy? David P. Knight FEASTA and WinACC


1
Fracking good or fracking bad ? Is unconventional
gas good for the planet and good for the economy?
David P. Knight FEASTA and WinACC
  • Unconventional gas shale gas coalbed gas
    tight gas underground coal gasification

2
What is Shale gas fracking?
3
What is Coalbed methane?
http//www.energyjustice.net/naturalgas/cbm
4
What is tight gas
http//www.riazhaq.com/2011/05/pakistans-vast-shal
e-gas-deposits.html
5
What is underground coal gasification?
http//www.greencarcongress.com/2005/08/undergroun
d_coa.html
6
Unconventional gas unable to reverse decline in
total gas production beyond 2025 Conventional
Gas starts to Peak/ plateau about 2020
7
250 k
Shell's analysis doesnt consider full cycle
CO2, methane and sulfur dioxide or the fact that
we must leave the 95 of the estimated fossil
fuel reserves in the ground!
8
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9
Central estimates of warming produced by
different global fossil fuel resources Omits
effects of methane and SO2
Total potentially feasible for economic
extraction in Trillion tonnes of carbon
12.5
9.9
1.91
0.22
0.35
Additional warming to stay within 2C (Already
had 0.8C )
0.23
After Swart, N.C. Weaver, AJ.2012 Nature Clim.
Chang.
10
Methane leakage from conventional and
unconventional gas production
http//frack-off.org.uk/gas-wells-leaking/
11
.Slightly modified from Howarth RW , Santoro ,
R and Ingraffea, A. Methane and the
greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from
shale formations, Climatic Change 2011
How do GHG emissions compare for shale gas ,
conventional gas, and coal electricity
production?
GHG emissions in g C CO2 e per MJ electricity
12
best guess of 4 for fugitive methane
emissions is slightly higher than Howarths
estimate of 2.23.8 for shale gas drilling and
production.
Tollefson, J. 2012 .Nature , 482, 139-140
13
Two further blows against Shells Cleaner gas
Climatic Change 2011 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0217-3
PNAS 2012 www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.120240
7109
14
Summary so far Is unconventional gas good for
the planet? No!
  • All unmitigated fossil fuel burning must cease by
    2050. Pursuing gas would delay investment in
    renewables.
  • The evidence presented here suggests that a
    switch to gas for transport and electricity
    generation is worse for warming

15
Is unconventional gas good for the global economy
?
Main source Arthur Berman . Source Labyrinth
Consulting Services, Inc. Presentation at ASPO
USA 2010 World Oil Conference
16
Proven reserves much less than estimated
technically recoverable
Top 15. Data April 2011 http//www.eia.gov/analysi
s/studies/worldshalegas/index.cfm7 Graphic
http//gulzar05.blogspot.co.uk/2011/04/global-shal
e-gas-reserves.html
17
http//www.aspousa.org/fall2006/presentations/pdf/
Hughes_D_NatGas_Boston_2006.pdf
18
Source Arthur Berman (2010) GasAbundance or
Mirage? ASPO USA 2010 World Oil Conference
19
Production rate in selected typical wells in
different shale gas fields. No evidence for
industry claim that production can be maintained
for 10 years
Chesapeake Energy, 2010 Institutional Investor
and Analyst Meeting, (Oklahoma City, OK 2010),
http//phx.corporateir.net/External.File?itemUGFy
ZW50SUQ9NjYwMTd8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTMt1, pg.
54.
20
Average of major operators cumulative production
will not reach advertised estimated ultimate
recoverable gas soon enough add value.
21
Shale plays have contracted to a core area.
Example- Haynesville Shale Louisiana
The emerging core area shrunk to 110,000 acres
or about 5 Townships. Approximately 10 of the
play area in defined by limits of drilling (1.5
million acres or 65 Townships). 2 years ago,
this was promoted as the 4th largest gas field in
the world, and the largest in North America.
22
Average gas production per well has declined
steeply despite a dramatic increase in the number
of US wells producing gas.
Based on data from U.S. Energy Information
Administration . Source http//www.postcarbon.or
g/reports/PCI-report-nat-gas-future.pdf
23
EROI for discovering Oil and Gas in the US has
fallen from gt1,200 to lt5 !
Guilford, MG, Hall ,CAS, O Connor, P., 3
Cleveland, CE. 20011 A New Long Term Assessment
of Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for U.S.
Oil and Gas Discovery and Production
Sustainability, 3, 1866-1887
24
Global EROI for producing oil and gas
Ajay K. Gupta and Charles A.S. Hall 2011 A
Review of the Past and Current State of EROI Data
Sustainability, 3, 1796-1809www.mdpi.com/journal
/sustainability
25
Operator claims of profitability at lt8M/Mcf gas
prices exclude many costs. Currently Henry hub
price about 2M Huge operating costs related
to need for thousands of expensive wells etc.
Data from annual reports
http//www.theoildrum.com/node/7075
26
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27
Bermans conclusion
Shale gas plays in the United States are
commercial failures and shareholders in public
exploration and production (EP) companies are
the losers. http//www.theoildrum.com/node/707
5
28
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29
What can be done about this?

30
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