Averting a Climate Catastrophe: Solutions for Home, Work, Community and Nation

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Averting a Climate Catastrophe Solutions for
Home, Work, Community and Nation

• John Kaye
• Ph 0407 195 455
• Email john_at_nsw.greens.org.au
• April 2006

(v6a)
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Presentation Outline 1

• Brief Introduction The Bad News
• What is Greenhouse?
• Australia the climate bandit
• Climate consequences 
• Sources of greenhouse pollution
• Energy The Good News
• The non-solutions clean coal and nuclear
• Renewable energy solutions
• Energy efficiency solutions
• Saving the planet, generating jobs, becoming a
  world leader in climate solutions 

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Presentation Outline 2

• Transport More Good News
• Climate friendly solutions
• The Politics of Greenhouse
• why the political process not responding    
• making the politicians take notice

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Carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 30
from 1000 AD to 2004 AD
Data Source World Watch Institute
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The Greenhouse Effect
Source Saskatchewan Interactive
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Global temperature 1861-2004
http//www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre
/obsdata/globaltemperature.html
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International Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)
(web site www.ipcc.ch)

• Set up by
• World Meteorological Organisation
• United Nations Environment Programme
• Leading climate scientists
• cautious and rigorous
• Working Group 1 Scientific basis of climate
  change
• 635 scientists
• 4,621 refereed scientific papers

"There is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities."
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Climate change models predict observations
temperature anomalies (oC)
modelling with actual increases in greenhouse gas
concentrations
Stott et al, Science 2000
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But not without increased greenhouse gas
concentrations
modelling without actual increases in greenhouse
gas concentrations
Stott et al, Science 2000
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Variations of the Earths surface temperature
1000 to 2100
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From IPCC 3rd Assessment Report 2001
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Impacts of unchecked climate change (IPCC
data www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg2SPMfinal.pdf)

• Temperature rise
• extreme heat events
• ice melting (permafrost and caps) ? release of
  CO2 methane
• Sustained changes to rainfall patterns
• droughts, floods continental "summer drying"
• Increased frequency severity of extreme climate
  events
• cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, floods, droughts
• Sea level rise
• IPCC 0.88 m by 2100 or worse (currently increase
  2 mm/year)
• UK Met Office (Jan 2006) ice melt ? 7 m rise in
  long term
• Changed wind patterns
• spread of disease-carrying insects

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Consequences of unchecked climate change

• Human
• widespread drought famine
• insect borne diseases
• floods and inundation of populated areas
• increased war and conflict
• Natural ecosystems
• loss of habitat and species
• End of Permian Period (271 m years ago)
• rapid temperature rise of 60 C
• 90 of life on planet disappeared

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Climate refugees

• 1.5 m sea level rise means 17 million homeless in
  Ganges River delta
• Calcutta is 3 m above sea level
• Dhaka is 5 m above sea level

IPCC 2001 Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).
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Per Capita Emissions Australia leads the way!
Data Source The Australia Institute Sept 2001
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Australia Climate Bandit
www.joelertola.com/ grfx/chrt_greenhouse.html
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Australian Coal Exports

• approximately 730 million tonnes CO2 each year
• 37 tonnes per person each year
• 27 tonnes in Australia 64 tonnes per person
  each year
• 231 million tonnes of coal exported in 2004/05
• worth 18.3 billion (to whom?)
• 77 of total Australian coal production
• Australia largest exporter in the world
• about 30 of world trade
• Newcastle world's largest coal export port
• (about 10 of world trade)

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Discussion Questions Climate Change

• Can we afford to ignore the evidence?
• Effects of changing temperature on environment?
• Impacts on low income countries?
• What are the implications of global dimming?
• Climate change fact or theory?
• What changes have you observed locally?
• Are these necessarily caused by climate change?

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Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Australia
2003
Data Source Australian Greenhouse Office
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Trends in Australia's Emissions

• In 2003
• 550 million tonnes CO2 equiv.
• Plus approx. 730 million tonnes CO2 in export coal

Data Source Australian Greenhouse Office
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Stationary Energy

• 268 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (Australia -
  2003)
• About 70 electricity generation
• About 30 gas and other fuels
• Fastest growing greenhouse source
• 37.2 increase from 1990 to 2003
• Air-conditioning, lower efficiency houses
  (lighting, heating), commerce and industry
• NSW electricity industry dominated by coal
• 90 of energy generation is coal burning
• Rest hydro, small amount of gas

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The big problem Coal fired generators
Mt PiperPower Station Lithgow, NSW
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18,000 jobs lost in Australias coal industry
from mid 1980s to 2002
From Diesendorf 2004
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Non-solution 1 Geosequestration
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Problems with Geosequestration (Carbon capture
and storage)

• Will it work?
• Unproven technology
• Cost
• Estimates vary
• A10/tonne CO2 (Batterham)
• A140/tonne CO2 (US DoE)
• Limited suitable storage sites close to sources
• Long term risk
• Release due to geological activity
• rupture or leakage
• Passes problem to next generation

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Non-solution 2 Clean Coal
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Non-solution 3 Nuclear Energy
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The Nuclear Fuel Cycle
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
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Nuclear Power Issues

• Waste storage
• Plutonium half life 24,000 years (about 700
  generations)
• Accidents
• Three Mile Island Chernobyl
• Sellafield Nuclear Facility (UK) 2005
• Leak undetected for 9 months
• 20 tonnes of uranium plutonium dissolved in
  nitric acid
• Containment can only be entered by robots
• Weapons Terrorism
• Plutonium inevitable by-product of nuclear
  power
• Mohamed ElBaredei, IAEA
• the emergence of a nuclear black market, the
  determined efforts by more countries to acquire
  technology to produce the fissile material usable
  in nuclear weapons, and the clear desire of
  terrorists to acquire weapons of mass
  destruction

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Nuclear Power Issues II

• Costs
• Heavily subsidised
• In 1998, cumulative subsides to nuclear power
  had an equivalent cost of US1,411 per
  household. (REPP, 2000)
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Mining and processing (milling) low grade ore
• Resource scarcity
• If all worlds electricity demand supplied by
  nuclear, would exhaust high grade ore in 4 years
  (Smith van Leeuwin)

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The good newsThere are solutions and they work!

• Australia does not need
• Coal (clean or otherwise)
• Geosequestration
• Nuclear
• "Clean Energy Future for Australia"
• (wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfutur
  e/)
• Halve emissions by 2040 with existing
  technologies
• Wind (20)
• Bio-electricity (26)
• Natural gas (17)
• Solar heat
• Energy efficiency

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Solution 1 Wind
Albany WA 12 x 1.8 MW units 75 of Albanys
electricity needs (image source Western Power)
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Wind jobs
Jobs change from mid 1980s to 2002
Wind Energy Industry in Denmark 16,000 new jobs
Coal in Australia - 18,000 jobs lost

• wind (with 80 Aus content) creates
• 4 x number of jobs as coal
• for each unit of energy generated

Data Source Diesendorf 2004
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Wind generation and the economy
? overseas spent in Australia
1500 MW of coal (costs 2 bn) 1.5 bn 0.5 bn
2 bn invest in wind 80 Aus. content 0.4 bn 1.6 bn
Data Source Diesendorf 2004
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Wind Issues

• Some (potentially) non-issues
• Noise
• Bird strike
• Care with siting
• Fluctuations in availability
• Limited to about 20 of electricity generation in
  Aus.
• Some real issues
• Scenic impacts
• Wilderness native vegetation impacts (esp.
  access roads)
• Siting and development assessment process
• Community involvement not community
  consultation
• Needs to ensure that all affected parties share
  in benefits
• Needs to respect local and environmental values

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Solution 2 Bio-electricity

• Sunshine Coast, Qld
• Ergon Energy
• Suncoast Gold Macadamias

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Bio-electricity Closed Carbon Cycle
Carbon released from combustion is carbon
recently taken from atmosphere
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Issues with bio-electricity

• Local environmental pollution
• Land degradation
• Water scarcity
• Native forestry wastes
• A distraction from the main game
• Will cause more forests to be destroyed
• Not needed
• Australia can generate 26 of its electricity
  from bio-electricity by 2040 without native
  forest residues

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Solution 3 Solar Heating (especially hot water)
Direct solar e.g. solar water heater
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Solar Water Heaters

• hot water 27 of domestic energy use
• about 5 of all water heater installations are
  solar
• about 36,000 each year
• costs 800 - 2,100 more than conventional
  electric system
• pays for itself in 5 - 10 years
• plus subsidies from Federal Gvt (RECs)
• 500 to 1000 or more depending on size
• other systems
• electric heat pump
• high efficiency gas

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Solar Cells (Photovoltaics)
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Jobs in Solar Installation
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Solution 4 Energy efficiency
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Energy Efficiency 9,000 new jobs

• Ministerial Council on Energy
• 20 to 30 reduction in energy consumption
  possible
• 12 years benefits using available technology
• Employment increase by around 9,000 (0.1)
• GDP 1.8 billion higher (0.2)
• 9 reduction in stationary energy consumption
  (-213 PJ)
• 9 reduction in greenhouse emissions (-32MT)

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Impact on GDP (Using available technology)
Data Source Australian Ministerial Council on
Energy
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Energy Savings by Sector
Data Source Australian Ministerial Council on
Energy
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Greenhouse Sources in the Home
Source www.greenhouse.gov.au/ yourhome/technical/fs40.htm
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Your Home

• Water heating
• Choice of solar, high efficiency instantaneous
• Low flow shower heads
• Space heating cooling
• Window shading
• Insulation
• Refrigeration, washing machine, appliances
• Efficiency (5 star rating)
• Lighting
• High efficiency lights
• House design for solar capture and energy
  performance

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Discussion Starters Stationary Energy

• Nuclear energy would we ever see its benefits
  outweighing its dangers?
• Wind energy sacrificing scenic values for the
  climate?
• Making the polluters pay higher prices but lower
  bills for all?
• Whats gone wrong Why wont my rooftop solar
  panel compete with Mt Piper power station?

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Transport and Greenhouse Gases

• One of fastest growing sources of greenhouse
  pollution
• 1990 to 2003 increased by 28.8
• 79.8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (2003)
• 15 of all of Australias greenhouse emissions

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Transport Emissions TrendsAustralia 1990 to
2003 (data source Australian Greenhouse Office)
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Transport greenhouse emissions by mode (data
source Australian Greenhouse Office)
Data source www.greenhouse.gov.au/gwci/transport.
html
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Hybrid Vehicles
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Private Vehicles Traffic Congestion
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Biofuels
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Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
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Reinventing our rail system
Passenger public transport
Freight on rails
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Jobs in rail transport

• 60 fewer jobs than 25 years ago.
• 75 of jobs losses in regional and rural
  Australia.
• average age of rail workforce is 52 years.
• Need for public re-investment
• capital infrastructure
• the workforce
• RTBU immediate need for 1,500 trainees
• mainly young people
• many in regional areas.

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Bicycles and Light Rail
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Bicycle use
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Workshops

• Brainstorming the solutions
• at home
• at work
• in the community
• nationally
• Appoint a facilitator, a scribe and a reporter
• 5 minute report back on key findings

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What needs to be done?

• Ending the fossil fuel age
• no new coal power
• no new coal mines
• no new motorways
• reduce dependence on export coal
• Commit to 50 reduction by 2040
• Carbon taxes (polluters pay)
• alternative cap emissions and trade permits
• assistance to low income households

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What needs to be done? (2)

• Minimum energy efficiency standards
• Industry, commercial and residential
• Invest in renewable energy
• End subsidies to coal energy intensive uses
• Just transitions to sustainable jobs

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How to make the transition and reap the benefits?

• Industry policy (vs. globalisation market
  ideology)
• Develop industries that solve climate problems
• Make deliberate decisions
• locating manufacturing in areas with high
  unemployment
• High volume low value added ? High value
  added low volume
• Focus on innovation developing export
  industries
• Workforce
• Unionised workforce, collectively bargaining
• Public education opportunities
• TAFE

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USA
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Making the transition the politics of creating
a future

• Coalition bad
• Clean Coal geosequestration
• Undermined carbon taxes carbon trading
• MRET to expire, no teeth
• Refused to sign Kyoto
• Promoting Asia Pacific Partnership to
  destabilise next round of Kyoto

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Making the transition the politics of creating
a future (2)

• ALP a little better
• Sign Kyoto
• Committed to reductions in the long term
• Nice words about renewable energy
• BUT
• Debate over uranium mining and energy
• Still addicted to "clean" coal

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Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development
and Climate (AP6)

• India, China, Japan, South Korea, USA, Australia
• Largest coal based economies
• Negotiated in secret
• Emphasis on clean coal solutions
• No reduction targets
• ABARE Study emissions will double by 2030
• Designed to
• Undermine post-Kyoto negotiations
• Take pressure off governments fossil fuel
  industries

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NSW State Gvttalking the talk but can they walk?

• Recognition of greenhouse problem but
• New coal fired electricity
• Air-conditioning load growing
• Cross-subsidy
• each air-con household receives 70 a year
  subsidyfrom non-air-con households (Sydney
  EnergyAustralia 2005)
• Energy efficiency of new housing stock
• Developer donations

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NSW State Gvttalking the talk but can they
walk? (2)

• More km of Sydney motorway than all other gvts
• Failure to get trains operating
• Closure of branch lines
• Desalination plant
• 1 increase in stationary energy (500 ML/day
  plant) (Australia Inst. data)

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The political system captured by entrenched
interests

• Old energy intensive industriescoal, oil,
  minerals
• Campaign donations
• 1.5 m from resources energy sector in
  1999-2003
• Developers
• Revolving door
• Warwick Parer (Minister for Energy Resources,
  1996-1998)
• "Greenhouse Mafia"
• Australian Industry Greenhouse Network members
  writing accessing cabinet submissions (4
  Corners 13/2/06)

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The political system is driven by

• Fear of backlash
• e.g. blackouts, water shortages
• Ideology of deregulation privatisation
• Opposed to meaningful targets
• Opposed to making polluters pay pricing
  environmental damage
• Short electoral cycle vs medium time scale
  impacts
• The political system is failing!

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How to get there Making the political system
work

• Community lead change to political process
• requires community transformation
• Need to turn every household into greenhouse
  campaigner
• Demand clean energy future
• Demand better public transport
• The Greens
• Raising the bar on the debate
• Climate Action Working Group
• 2007 state and federal elections
• Making positive solutions for greenhouse key
  issue
• Social, economic and ecological benefits