Systems Thinking NDIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CONFERENCE October, 2003 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Systems Thinking NDIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CONFERENCE October, 2003 PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 45d31b-MDAxZ



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Systems Thinking NDIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CONFERENCE October, 2003

Description:

Systems Thinking NDIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CONFERENCE October, 2003 Patrick Murray Naval Undersea Warfare Center Division Keyport pmurray_at_kpt.nuwc.navy.mil – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:120
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 33
Provided by: NUWC3
Learn more at: http://km.camt.cmu.ac.th
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Systems Thinking NDIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING CONFERENCE October, 2003


1
Systems ThinkingNDIA SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
CONFERENCEOctober, 2003
  • Patrick Murray
  • Naval Undersea Warfare Center
  • Division Keyport
  • pmurray_at_kpt.nuwc.navy.mil
  • 360-315-7513

2
What is a system?
  • A definition as offered by Gregory Watson in his
    book, Business Systems Engineering System means
    a grouping of parts that operate together for a
    common purpose. (Watson, 1994).

3
What is a System? (Contd)
  • Definition as adapted from Random House
    Dictionary A system is an assemblage or
    combination of elements or parts forming a
    complex or unitary whole, such as a river system
    or a transportation system any assemblage or set
    of correlated members, such as a system of
    currency an ordered and comprehensive assemblage
    of facts, principles, or doctrines in a
    particular field of knowledge or thought, such as
    a system of philosophy a coordinated body of
    methods or a complex scheme or plan of procedure,
    such as a system of organization and management
    any regular or special method of plan or
    procedure, such as a system of marking,
    numbering, or measuring (Blanchard Fabrychy,
    1998).

4
What is Thinking?
  • What, precisely, is thinking? When at the
    reception of sense impressions, memory pictures
    emerge, this is not yet thinking. And when such
    pictures form a series, each member of which
    calls forth another, this too is not yet
    thinking. When, however, a certain picture turns
    up in many such series, thenprecisely through
    such returnit becomes an ordering element for
    such seriesSuch an element becomes an
    instrument, a concept. I think the transition
    from free association of dreaming to thinking is
    characterized by the more or less dominating role
    which the concept plays in it (Einstein, in
    Schilpp, 1949).

5
Connectedness
  • If you wish to understand a system, and so be in
    a position to predict its behavior, it is
    necessary to study the system as a whole. Cutting
    it up into bits for study is likely to destroy
    the systems connectedness, and hence the system
    itself. (Sherwood, 2002)

6
Connectedness
  • If you wish to influence or control the behavior
    of a system, you must act on the system as a
    whole. Tweaking it in one place in the hope that
    nothing will happen in another is doomed to
    failurethats what connectedness is all about.
    (Sherwood, 2002).

7
Systems Theory
  • General Systems Theory
  • Chaos Theory
  • Quantum Theory
  • Ecological Theory

8
Systems Principles
  • Openness
  • Purposefulness
  • Multidimensionality
  • Emergent property
  • Counterintuitivess

9
Systems Thinking
  • Problem Solving Tool
  • Pioneered By Biologists
  • Looks At The Whole View
  • Reduces Complexity
  • Controls System Behavior

10
Systems Thinking Methodologies
  • Soft Systems Methodologies
  • Hard Systems Thinking
  • The Fifth Discipline

11
Systems Thinking Tools
  • Archetypes
  • Causal Loop Diagrams
  • Stocks and Flows
  • Simple Structure Dynamics

12
Systems Thinking Models
  • Archetypes
  • Causal Loop Diagrams
  • Stocks and Flows

13
Archetype Fixes That Backfire
The problem symptom alternately improves. It goes
down, then comes Back up again and usually comes
back worse than before (Senge, 1994).
14
Archetype Limits to Growth
Growth occurs and sometimes dramatic but levels
off and/or falls into decline (Senge, 1994).
15
Archetype Shifting the Burden
Three patterns exist side by side. The reliance
on short-term fixes grows stronger, while efforts
to fundamentally correct the real problems grow
weaker, and the problem symptom alternately
improves and deteriorates (Senge, 1994).
16
Archetype Tragedy of Commons
Total activity grows, but the gains from
individual activities are dropping off. Parts of
the organization are suffering for the whole
(Senge, 1994).
17
Archetype Accidental Adversaries
Each sides performance either declines or stays
level and low, while competitiveness Increases
over time (Senge, 1994).
18
Causal Loop Diagrams
19
Pressure from Contractor for More Dollars
Pressure on the Government to stay Within cost
O
S
Quality of the Government-Industry relationship
Risk of cost overruns
O
S
Pressure on the Government to deliver A workable
system
Pressure on the Government to control The
contractor
S
S
Pressure on the Government to control Costs and
quality
S
S
S
Requirement for high Technical and
service Quality standards
Risk to the Government of Cost escalation
S
S
Dependency of the Government on the contractor
Pressure on the Government To satisfy the
taxpayers
S
Government Cost Model Adapted From
Sherwoods Causal Loop Diagrams
S
Policy of outsourcing
20
Causal Loop Diagram
Total Work Capacity
My Goals
Your Goals
My Consumption of Dollars
Your Consumption of Dollars



-
-


Work Available
My Need for Work
Your Need for Work


-
My fear that you will Not leave enough work me
Your fear that I will Not leave enough work you
-
-
Number of activities competing For work
-
Conflict


Option 1 Two reinforcing loops (Sherwood, 2002)
21
Causal Loop Diagram
Total Work Capacity
My Goals
Your Goals
My Consumption of Dollars
Your Consumption of Dollars



-
-
-
-


Work Available
My Need for Work
Your Need for Work



My fear that you will Not leave enough work me
Your fear that I will Not leave enough work you
-
-
Police the Work allocation

Appeal to A higher authority


Option 2 Limit consumptionbefore turf war
(Sherwood, 2002)
22
Causal Loop Diagram
Total Work Capacity
My Goals
Your Goals
My Consumption of Dollars
Your Consumption of Dollars
-
-



-
-


Work Available
My Need for Work
Your Need for Work


My fear that you will Not leave enough work me
Your fear that I will Not leave enough work you
-
-
My willingness to Participate in a
cooperative Goal-setting process
My willingness to Participate in a
cooperative Goal-setting process
Recognition of The need for cooperation




Option 3 Players See the Sense in Cooperation
(Sherwood, 2002)
23
Causal Loop Diagram
Causal Loop Diagram


Mutual Trust
Best Solution Goals MatchCombined Benefit!
24
System Dynamics Growth and Goal Seeking
Structure and Behavior
Goal
state of the system
state of the system
Time
Time
Goal (desired state of the system)

state of the system

-

discrepancy
State of The System
Net Increase Rate

Corrective action

25
Stocks and Flows
Valves represent the flow of inventory into and
out of the warehouse
Stock
Inventory
source
sink
Production (inflow)
Shipments (outflows)
Sources and sinks are outside the model boundary.
Stocks and Flows are used in Causal Loop Diagrams
to cover some of their limitations of not being
able to capture stocks and flows within systems
(Sterman, 2000).
26
Some Models from Soft SystemsMethodology--Checkla
nd
27
The inquiring/learning cycle of SSM (Checkland,
1999)
perceived real-world problem or situation
leads to selection of
comparison (question problem situation using
models)
models of relevant purposeful activity systems
each based on a declared world-view
action to improve
find
a structured debate about desirable and feasible
change
accommodations which enable
  • Principles
  • real world a complexity of relationships.
  • relationships exploded via models of purposeful
    activity
  • based on explicit world visions.
  • inquiry structured by questioning perceived
    situation using the models as a
  • source of questions.
  • action to improve based on finding
    accommodations (versions of the
  • situation which conflicting interests can live
    with)
  • inquiry in principle never-ending best
    conducted with wide range of
  • interested parties give the process away to
    people in the situation.

28
Method for Unstructured Problems
7. action to improve the problem situation
1. the problem situation unstructured
6. feasible, desirable changes
2. the problem situation expressed.
5. comparison of 4 with 2
Real world
Systems thinking
4. conceptual models
3. root definitions of systems
4.a. formal systems concept
4.b. other systems thinking
Checkland, 1999
29
An area of reality containing Concerns Issues Pro
blems Aspirations
Gives rise to
IDEAS
from which may be formulated
THEORIES Substantive Methodologies
provide
Other sources
which support criticism of
which present
CASE RECORDS
PROBLEMS
documented in
which may be analyzed using
which yield
to be used in action (intervention,
influence, observation) in
MODELS
which may be manipulated using
METHODOLOGY
TECHNIQUES
A developing subject
which may be used in
ANY DEVELOPING SUBJECT (Checkland, 1999)
30
Laws of Systems Thinking
  • Todays problems come from yesterdays solutions.
  • Moving the problem around.
  • The harder you push, the harder the system pushes
    back.
  • Compensating feedback.
  • Behavior grows better before it grows worse.
  • The easy way out usually leads back in.
  • The cure can be worse than the disease.
  • Faster is many times slower.
  • Cause and effect are not closely related in time
    and space.
  • Small changes can produce big resultsbut the
    areas of highest leverage are often the least
    obvious.
  • You can have your cake and eat it too, but not at
    the same time.
  • Dividing the elephant in half does not produce
    two small elephants.
  • There is no blame.
  • Senge, 1990

31
Questions?
32
References/Bibliography
  • Barnett, W. P., Sorenson, O. (2002). The red
    queen in organizational creation and development.
    Industrial and Corporate Change, 11, 289-305.
    Retrieved on October 13, 2003 from the ProQuest
    database at www.apollolibrary.com.
  • Bertalanffy, L. (1968). General system theory
    Foundations, development, applications. New York
    George Braziller.
  • Capra, F. (1996). The web of life. New York
    Anchor Books - Doubleday.
  • Checkland, P. (1999). Systems thinking, systems
    practice. New York John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
  • Checkland, P., Scholes, J. (1999). Soft systems
    methodology in action. New York John Wiley
    Sons, LTD.
  • Chen, Y., Smith, R. (2001). Equilibrium cost
    overruns. Annals of Economics and Finance, 2,
    401-414. Retrieved May 8, 2003 from
    http//www.aeconf.net
  • Flood, R. L., Romm, N. R. A. (1996). Critical
    systems thinking Current research and practice.
    New York Plenum Press.
  • Gharajedaghi, J. (1999). Systems thinking
    Managing chaos and complexity A platform for
    designing business architecture. Boston
    Butterworth-Heinman.
  • Hellman, C. (2003). F/A-22 further in the red.
    Weekly Defense Monitor, 7, 2-4.
  • Holbrook, M. B. (2003). Adventures in complexity
    An essay on dynamic open complex adaptive
    systems, butterfly effects, self-organizing
    order, co evolution, and ecological perspective,
    fitness landscapes, market spaces, emergent
    beauty at the edge of chaos, and all that jazz.
    Academy of Marketing Science Review, 2003, 1.
    Retrieved on October 13, 2003 from the ProQuest
    database at www.apollolibrary.com.
  • Hudson, C. G. (2000). At the edge of chaos A new
    paradigm for social work. Journal of Social Work
    Education, 36, 215-230. Retrieved October 2, 2003
    from the EBSCOhost premier database at
    www.apollolibrary.com.
  • Maertens, J. W. (2003). Chaos theory, Asimov's
    foundations and robots, and Herbert's Dune The
    fractal Aesthetic of epic science fiction (book).
    Utopian Studies, 1, 244-246. Retrieved on October
    13, 2003 from the ProQuest database at
    www.apollolibrary.com.
  • Pesic, P. (2002). Quantum identity. American
    Scientist, 90, 262-264. Retrieved on October 13,
    2003 from the ProQuest database at
    www.apollolibrary.com.
  • Senge, P. M. (1990). The fifth discipline The
    art practice of the learning organization. New
    York Doubleday.
  • Senge, P. M., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R.
    B., Smith, B. J. (1994). The fifth discipline
    fieldbook Strategies and tools for building a
    learning organization. New York Doubleday.
  • Sherwood, D. (2002). Seeing the forest for the
    trees A manager's guide to applying systems
    thinking. London Nicholas Brealy Publishing.
  • Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics Systems
    thinking and modeling for a complex world. New
    York McGraw-Hill.
  • Weinberg, G. M. (2001). An introduction to
    general systems thinking (Silver Anniversary
    Edition ed.). New York Dorset House.
  • Williams Jr., A. O. (2002). Quantum Theory.
    Encyclopedia Americana-Grolier Online Retrieved
    October 13, 2003 from Grolier Online at
    www.apollolibrary.com.
About PowerShow.com