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Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

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Title: Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market


1
Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
January 15, 2009
  • Richard Froeschle
  • richard.froeschle_at_twc.state.tx.us
  • Texas Workforce Commission/LMCI
  • (512) 491-4941
  • www.lmci.state.tx.us

2
Tell Me About the Labor Market
1. Current labor market conditions- Snapshot of
current economic measures. What do the numbers
tell us about the labor market relative to
historical periods, e.g. Urate, payroll job
growth, labor force growth, personal income,
sales taxes, GDP growth, college enrollments
graduations, etc.
2. Where is the labor market headed. What do we
expect the labor market will look like in the
foreseeable future. How will the present
situation change, e.g projected industry and
occupational job growth and decline, expected
demographics
3. What is the environmental context, business
climate and likely structural transformations
that will shape future job growth and creation.
What are the larger trends that will influence
business decisions and the demand for workers,
e.g. impact of globalization, technology,
demographic trends etc.
3
Economic Truth About Predicting Recessions
  • Nobody ever sees anything coming. Nobody saw
    stagflation coming, nobody saw the Great
    Depression coming, nobody saw Pearl Harbor or
    9/11 coming. Really big, bad things tend to be
    surprises.
  • Laurence Ball, economist at Johns Hopkins
    University

4
Understanding the Texas Economy In Search of
Convergent Validity
5
Gleaning Wisdom from Data
  • The Japanese eat LESS red meat and drink less red
    wine than do Americans or the Britishand they
    have a much lower incidence of heart attacks.
  • The Italians eat MORE red meat and drink much
    more red wine than do Americans or the
    British--and yet they too have a lower incidence
    of heart attacks.

Conclusion Go ahead and eat whatever you want.
It's pretty clear that speaking English is what
kills you
6
What has the economy been doing? Macroeconomic
Growth Patterns and Changes in Consumer Behaviors
7
Were from Texas What country are you from?
  • We have NASA so we control the space industry.
  • We have all the oil and gas that we will need for
    the next 300 years refine over 85 of the
    gasoline in the U.S.
  • We have 65 of the Defense Industry The term
    "Don't mess with Texas," takes on a whole new
    meaning.
  • We got technology Texas leads the nation in
    producing computer chips and communications
    equipment.
  • We have our own food Texas is self-sufficient in
    beef, poultry, hogs, sea food several types of
    grain, fruit and vegetables and every Texan
    knows how to cook.
  • We have a ready supply of workers.  We could just
    open the border when we need some more.

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Single Family Housing Permit (units)
10
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
  • All my economists say, on the one, or on the
    other handwhat I really need is a one-handed
    economist.

11
The Rise of Behavioral Economics
  • Behavioral economics focuses on the ways humans
    fail to act as rational, self-interested beings
    that economic models call forwe arent good at
    thinking about the future, were susceptible to
    peer pressure, we overestimate our abilities and
    underrate the odds of bad things happening.
  • Robert Shiller, Yale University economist

12
The Two Minds of the Global Economy I
As Consumers/Investors, we like
As Citizens, we dont like
  • Big Box retailers give us one-stop shopping
    convenience (the WalMart premium)
  • Global investment opportunities, diversified
    portfolio higher rates of return
  • More productive profitable ways to do business
    offshoring, temps, outsourcing, foreign skilled
    labor
  • Difficult for smaller companies to compete
  • Widening income and wealth inequality
  • Job instability, job portability, job volatility,
    offshore potential of American jobs

13
The Two Minds of the Global Economy II
As Consumers/Investors, we like
As Citizens, we dont like
  • More opportunities for entrepreneurs, more
    millionaires per capita!
  • Better shopping! Access to stuff created
    anywhere in the world
  • Global competition results in lower product
    prices
  • Soaring CEO pay relative to worker wages
  • Lowered sense of community in a global world
  • Reduced loyalty firms to workers, workers to
    firms, consumers to firms (brand loyalty)

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16
3. Wealth Effect4. Job Losses/Unemployment
The Downward Cycle for Consumers
1. Real Estate/Home Values
2. Stock Prices/Investment Portfolio
5. Borrowed Money/Credit
Consumer Spending
17
National Average Credit Scores
National Average is 680
of Population Credit Score
2 300 - 499
5 500 - 549
8 550 - 599
12 600 - 649
15 650 - 699
18 700 - 749
27 750 - 799
13 800 - 850
18
Credit Scores Affect Consumer Borrowing
State Low FICO State High FICO
Texas 651 South Dakota 710
Nevada 655 Minnesota 703
Arizona 659 North Dakota 706
New Mexico 663 Vermont 706
Louisiana 663 Mass 703
South Carolina 665 New Hampshire 703
Oklahoma 666 Montana 701
North Carolina 667 Iowa 700
Mississippi 668 Maine 699
Georgia 668 Wisconsin 699
19
Texas Industry and Occupational Growth
Patterns Historical Change and Projected
Employment
20
Unemployment has Many Faces
  • Frictional Lack of information makes it
    difficult for employers and jobseekers to locate
    each other in a timely efficient way
  • Seasonal Different calendar periods are
    normally slower or more robust than average
  • Structural Mismatch between skills in demand
    and the skills and abilities of the workforce
  • Cyclical or demand deficient Insufficient
    economic activity causes even appropriately
    skilled workers to have trouble finding suitable
    employment

21
How is the Texas Economy Performing? It Depends
on Your Personal Perspective!
  • Its doing well if.
  • Employed w/ marketable
  • transferable skills
  • Nursing, Home Health Care
  • Medical/Drs. Assistants
  • Therapists Therapy Aides
  • IT, DBA, Network Systems
  • Construction Utilities
  • Wind, Renewable Energy
  • Teaching, all levels
  • Oil Gas industry
  • Cross/Multi-disciplinary
  • Its not doing well if
  • Unemp w/Undefined skills
  • Repetitive, Rules-based Jobs
  • Textile/Apparel Sector
  • Small Farmer/Rancher
  • Telemarketer/Travel Agent
  • Financial Sector
  • Production Assembler
  • Order, Grocery or File Clerk
  • Mail Postal Clerks
  • Low education, technophobic
  • Geographically immobile

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Texas Industry Job Growth from 2005 to 2008
NAICS Industry Net Growth Pct Growth
Educational Testing Support Services 3,149 134.9
Ship Boat Building (rigs) 3,690 82.4
Support Activities for Mining 43,906 56.3
Motor Vehicle Manufacture 3,452 55.8
Heavy Engineering Civil Construction 5,748 49.4
Machinery Equip Lease and Rental 5,103 46.7
Utility System Construction 21,912 44.4
Office Administrative Services (fee based) 15,646 44.2
Construction Mining Machinery 13,979 41.7
Boiler Shipping Container Manufacture 2,840 38.8
Marketing Technical Consulting Services 20,983 37.5
24
Texas Industry Job Growth from 2005 to 2008
NAICS Industry Net Growth Pct Growth
Elementary Secondary Schools 49,484 6.8
Limited Service Eating Places 46,584 14.8
Support Activities for Mining 43,906 56.3
Full-service Restaurants 35,020 11.1
Employment Services 28,747 13.2
Home Health Care Services 25,509 15.4
Building Equipment Contractors 25,332 18.6
Architectural Engineering Services 25,019 21.7
Utility System Construction 21,912 44.4
Marketing Technical Consulting Services 20,983 37.5
Offices of Physicians 20,300 13.4
25
Estimated Occupational Demand for 3,690 Job Increase in Ship and Boat Building Industry (NAICS 3366) Estimated Occupational Demand for 3,690 Job Increase in Ship and Boat Building Industry (NAICS 3366) Estimated Occupational Demand for 3,690 Job Increase in Ship and Boat Building Industry (NAICS 3366)
SOC Occupational Title Staffing Pattern Required Workers
Total, All Workers 100.00 3,690
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 21.00 775
Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters 9.49 350
First-Line Supervisors of Production Workers 6.41 237
Team Assemblers 4.14 153
Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators 3.80 140
Hand Laborers Freight, Material Movers 2.89 107
Machinists 2.80 103
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 2.78 103
Painters, Transportation Equipment 2.59 96
Helpers--Production Workers 2.27 84
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 2.24 83
Electricians 1.95 72
26
Fastest Growing Texas Occupations -- Bachelors
Plus
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs) Growth Rate 2006-16 Annual Pay
Network Systems/Data Com Analyst 55.5 67,418
Special Education Teacher 48.5 44,824
Computer Software Engineer, Apps 46.3 86,217
Physician Assistant 46.1 81,959
Instructional Coordinator 43.4 57,610
Teachers, Kinder thru Middle School 42.0 44,216
Physical Therapist 38.9 77,294
Athletic Trainer 38.7 44,008
Anesthesiologist 38.5 176,254
Obstetrician/Gynecologist 38.1 190,362
Graduate Teaching Assistant 36.3 31,043
27
Most Openings Texas Occupations -- Bachelors Plus
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs) Openings 2006-16 Annual Pay
Teachers, Kinder thru Middle School 19,905 44,216
General Operations Manager 5,225 102,239
Accountants Auditors 3,960 61,369
Computer Systems Analyst 2,740 74,642
Business Operations Specialist 2,585 64,384
Construction Manager 2,525 66,435
Computer Software Engineer, Apps 1,880 86,217
Lawyer 1,660 120,072
Management Analyst 1,610 68,715
Insurance Sales Agent 1,585 50,298
Network Computer Systems Admin 1,415 64,037
28
Fastest Growing Texas Occupations --
Associates/Cert
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs) Growth Rate 2006-16 Annual Pay
Physical Therapy Assistant 46.1 51,589
Occupational Therapy Assistant 42.9 51,764
Surgical Technologist 41.9 37,286
Cardiovascular Technologist/Technician 41.8 44,461
Skin Care Specialist 41.5 27,100
Veterinary Technologist/Technician 40.3 25,271
Dental Hygienist 38.6 63,225
Respiratory Therapist 37.8 47,659
Registered Nurse 37.8 59,714
Radiation Therapist 35.3 75,487
Interpreter/Translator 34.9 42,630
29
Most Openings Texas Occupations -- Associates/Cert
Occupation Title (1,000 jobs) Openings 2006-16 Annual Pay
Registered Nurse 8,565 59,714
Restaurant Cook 4,120 19,280
Nursing Aids and Orderlies 3,745 20,690
Farmers Ranchers 3,715 35,432
Licensed Practical Nurse/LVN 3,375 37,354
Police Sheriff Patrol Officer 2,615 46,454
Welders, Cutters Brazers 2,415 32,666
Electricians 2,305 38,775
Computer Support Specialist 2,190 44,025
Auto Service Techs/Mechanic 2,160 34,884
Carpenter 1,640 31,041
30
National Demand vs. Available Supply
Occupation Title Unemployed/ Online Ads Average Wage
Total, All Occupations 2.31 19.56
Food Preparation and Serving 9.88 9.35
Building and Grounds Maintenance 9.81 11.33
Production Workers 6.98 15.05
Personal Care and Service 4.91 11.53
Sales and Related 2.86 16.94
Office and Administrative Support 2.19 15.00
Business and Financial Operations .99 30.01
Architecture and Engineering .58 33.11
Healthcare Practitioners/Technicians .20 31.26
Computer and Mathematical .14 34.71
Conference Board
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Online Job Openings in Texas September
2008372,529 total unique ads placed
  • Computer Support Specialist (5,580)
  • Heavy Truck Driver (5,538)
  • Retail Salesperson (5,179)
  • Sales Managers (5,112)
  • Sales Reps, Man/Wholesale (4,629)
  • Occupational Therapist (3,970)
  • Applications Programmers (3,968)
  • Web Developers (3,705)
  • Registered Nurse (27,219)
  • Engineers (all) (9,984)
  • Customer Service Reps (8,439)
  • Computer System Analysts (8,167)
  • Retail Sales Supervisors (6,884)
  • Physical Therapists (6,602)
  • Accountants (6,149)
  • Admin Assistants (6,051)

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Decomposition of Work Net Job Change Masks
Important Market Dynamics
  • 1. Real industry growth viewed in terms of
    revenues, profits market share, not necessarily
    jobs, e.g. Whos making money vs. Whos creating
    jobs?
  • 2. Technological obsolescence Labor
    substitution work activities made obsolete
    through technology, some replace workers
  • 3. Emergence of new blended occupations
    -combining job duties from 2 or more occupations
    into a single, new job youre a what? e.g.
    windmill turbine mechanics, cable installers
  • 4. Connecting education and the economy How to
    best match educational coursework majors to
    employer skill needs, What do I study to become
    more employable?

37
Decomposition of Work Labor Market Skill Needs
are Getting Tougher to Measure
  • 5. Outsourcing arrangements e.g. IBM and Marriott
    change work arrangements on paper affecting labor
    market data, but not training needs
  • 6. Patterns in use of temporary contract
    workers Increasingly common use of the
    contingent workforce
  • 7. Global Supply Chain Leakages -- lost jobs
    through global supply chain mgmt. (decoupling
    of production, labor and stock price)
  • 8. Work Activity Off-loading -- passing off lower
    value-added work to assistants/technicians
  • 9. High resolution globalization -- tradable
    skills, outsourcing specific work functions, not
    occupations

38
Where does the U.S. Fit Into an Increasingly
Globalized Economy?
39
Globalization is Altering Our Perspective
  • 1. Economic theory whats wrong with Keynesian
    economicsglobal leakage!
  • 2. Employer business practices the drive for
    greater productivity and market share in a
    globally competitive economy
  • 3. Labor supply options not just U.S. FTEs
  • 4. Decoupling of the labor market, stock market
    and aggregate production
  • 5. Creating competition for Commodities, Kapital
    and Natural Resources

40
The world has arrived at a rare strategic
inflection point where nearly half its
populationliving in China, India and Russiahave
been integrated into the global market economy,
many of them highly educated workers, who can do
just about any job in the world. Were talking
about three billion people. Craig
Barrett, CEO Intel 01/08/2004
41
Top 10 Richest World Economies 2006 and growth
rate 2000-2006 (mil)Where are the Growth
Markets?
  • United States 13,163,870 34.8
  • Japan 4,368,435 -6.4
  • Germany 2,896,876 52.4
  • China 2,644,681 120.7
  • United Kingdom 2,376,984 64.8
  • France 2,248,091 69.3
  • Italy 1,850,961 68.7
  • Canada 1,271,593 75.4
  • Spain 1,224,676 110.9
  • Brazil 1,067,472 65.6
  • Russian Federation 986,940 280.0
  • India 911,813 98.1

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42
Emerging Markets in a Global EconomyPercent of
2000 2007 Revenue Outside U.S.
  • YUM Brands 34.5 (50.1)
  • Ford 30.4 (53.1)
  • Boeing 34.3 (40.8)
  • Intel 58.8 (84.3)
  • Coca Cola 61.0 (73.8)
  • Corning (70.7)
  • Emerson Electric 40 (51.6)
  • Accenture (60.5)
  • Microsoft (38.7)
  • IBM 57.9 (57.9)
  • Motorola 52.5 (49.4)
  • JNJ 38.2 (47.1)
  • John Deere 25.1 (34.6)
  • Colgate 69.4 (80.3)
  • Nike 50.3 (62.6)
  • Campbell Soup (31.0)
  • Molson Coors (55.4)
  • 3M Corporation (61.4)

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Subsidiaries of Emerson Electric Company
  • AIH Inc. (Delaware)
  • Alco Controls S.A (Mexico)
  • Artesyn Technologies Inc. (Florida)
  • Astec International Holdings (UK China)
  • Branson Ultrasonic S.A. (Switzerland)
  • Daniel Industries Inc. (Delaware)
  • EECO, Inc. (Delaware)
  • Emerson Capital Corp (Canada)
  • Emerson Electric Nederland BV (Netherlands)
  • Bristol Inc. (Australia)

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Where Does U.S. MNC Go (2006)?
1 United Kingdom 364,084 Finance, Other Services
2 Netherlands 215,715 Holding Cos/Finance
3 Australia 122,587 Holding Companies
4 Bermuda 108,462 Finance/Holding Cos
5 Germany 99,253 Holding Cos/Wholesale
6 Japan 91,769 Finance/Wholesale
7 Switzerland 90,085 Holding Cos/Wholesale
8 Mexico 84,699 Manufacturing/Finance
9 Ireland 83,615 Chemicals/Information
20 China 22,228 Manufacturing/Wholesale
48
Texas Exports 2007
  • Chemicals Manufacturing 34.9 bil 20.8
  • Computer/Electronics 33.7 bil 20.0
  • Industrial Machinery 24.8 bil 14.7
  • Transportation Equipment 16.3 bil 9.7
  • Petroleum Products 14.7 bil 8.8
  • Electrical Components 6.7 bil 4.0
  • Primary Metal Manufacturing 5.8 bil 3.5
  • Fabricated Metals 5.4 bil 3.2
  • Agricultural Products 4.6 bil 2.7
  • Food Kindred Prod 3.7 bil 2.2
  • Plastic Rubber Prod 3.4 bil 2.0
  • Misc. Manufactured Commodities 2.8 bil
    1.7
  • Oil Gas Extraction 1.8 bil 1.1
  • 94.5 percent of Texas
    Exports

49
How Does Globalization and Free TradeAffect U.S.
Industry?
  • Global markets expand the scope for
    specialization. We do what we do best and trade
    for the rest. Dallas FRB
  • So, what does the U.S. do best?
  • How does specialization affect job growth,
    business practices and
  • educational preparation?

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What has Education been doing?Educational
Practices and Priorities
54
Employer Expectations and Education 1950
  • Rules and SOP determined who was to do what, and
    how. Most people were not supposed to think for
    themselves except in the most narrow of
    parameters. Original thought could imperil the
    entire plan.
  • Robert Reich Supercapitalism
  • Our schools, in every important respect, are
    very much as we created them at the beginning of
    the 20th century, when the aim was to build a
    mass education system that could provide basic
    literacy for a nation of factory workers,
    shopkeepers, and (low-tech) farming.
  • Tough Choices or Tough Times

55
Employer Expectations in the 21st century
  • Firms that succeed in this global economy
    will constantly be looking for ways to shed their
    routine work, either by automating it or
    outsourcing it. They will be constantly
    preoccupied with the search for competent and
    highly creative people
  • Creativity, innovation, and flexibility will
    not be the special province of an elite. It will
    be demanded of virtually everyone who is making a
    decent living, from graphic artists to assembly
    line workers, from insurance brokers to home
    builders.
  • Tough Choices or Tough Times

56
To an Educator a demand program is one that
has high enrollmentsTo an Employer a demand
occupation is one where there is a shortage of
workers
57
Show Workplace Basics
58
Texas Educational Equilibrium
  • TX Associates Degree Graduates 2006
  • Annual AVG Openings for Jobs Requiring an
    Associates Degree or Postsecondary Award
  • TX 2006 University Grads 2006 by Degree
  • Annual AVG Openings for Jobs Requiring a
    Bachelors Degree or More

57,251 Total Graduates Less 18,955
General Studies
131,007 Bachelors 28,312 Graduate
Degree 159,319 All Grads
38,296 Market Ready
98,431
40,894
59
Texas Occupational Imbalances
  • More Openings than Grads
  • 1. Registered Nurses
  • 2. Elementary Teachers
  • 3. Computer Systems Analysts
  • 4. Software Engineers
  • 5. Clergy
  • 6. Health Services Mgrs.
  • 7. Pharmacists
  • 8. Medical Lab Technician
  • 9. Training Development
  • More Grads than Openings
  • Historians Archivists
  • Accountants/Auditors
  • Graphic Designers
  • Clinical Psychologists
  • Journalists
  • Art Directors
  • Advertising Executives
  • Film Video Editors
  • Archeologists

60
Student Career Interests30,868 Inquiries January
2004-January 2006
  • 1. Doctor, all specialties (2,064)
  • 2. Lawyer (1,816)
  • 3. Teacher K-12 (1,744)
  • 4. Athletes Coaches (1,238)
  • 5. Law enforcement (1,193)
  • 6. Registered Nurses (1,100)
  • 7. Veterinarians (1,093)
  • 8. Singers/Entertainers (827)
  • 9. Cosmetology/Hairdresser(759)
  • 10. Actors Directors (506)
  • 11. Architects
  • 12. Biological scientist
  • 13. Auto mechanics
  • 14. Photographers
  • 15. Designers
  • 16. Computer programmer
  • 17. Fire fighters
  • 18. Computer engineers
  • 19. Artists
  • 20. Psychologists

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Top 15 Fall 2007 Public University Enrollment
College Major Students
Unknown/Undeclared 36,528
Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 32,019
Business Administration, Management and Operations 26,378
Biology, General 23,880
Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities 18,896
Psychology, General 16,961
Nursing 15,519
Business/Commerce, General 13,863
Health and Physical Education/Fitness 13,778
Accounting and Related Services 12,854
Criminal Justice and Corrections 10,660
English Language and Literature, General 8,492
History 8,355
Electrical, Electronics and Communications Engineering 8,087
Educational Administration and Supervision 7,924
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Top 15 Fall 2005-2006 Public University Graduates
College Major Grads Quarterly Earnings
Multi- / Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 8,043 8,665
Psychology, General 4,364 5,989
Business Administration, Management 4,061 9,042
Biology, General 3,745 5,859
Finance and Financial Management Services 3,130 9,552
Nursing 3,013 13,898
Marketing 2,900 8,091
Health and Physical Education/Fitness 2,816 6,930
Accounting and Related Services 2,401 9,107
Criminal Justice and Corrections 2,247 6,851
English Language and Literature 2,210 6,520
Political Science and Government 2,098 6,367
History, General 1,829 6,400
Liberal Arts and Sciences 1,586 8,283
Sociology 1,441 6,395
Fall 2006 graduate seed records were determined
by THECB (8,126 avg. all CIPs)
63
Highest Paying Majors 1 Year Post-GraduationBach
elors Associates Degrees Only
College Major Exit Level Annual Pay
1. Health Professions/Clinical Sciences BA 47,306
2. Engineering BA 45,278
3. Health Professions/Clinical Sciences AAS 44,230
4. Construction Trades AAS 40,120
5. Engineering Technologies/Technicians BA 39,677
6. Science Technologies/ Technicians AAS 37,968
7. Architectural Related Services AAS 36,737
8. Precision Production AAS 34,167
9. Computer Information Sciences BA 33,276
10. Business, Mgmt. Marketing BA 30,851
15. Liberal Arts BA 27,415
Avg. earnings for entire graduating cohort, not for individual graduates Avg. earnings for entire graduating cohort, not for individual graduates Avg. earnings for entire graduating cohort, not for individual graduates
64
Texas Economic Signposts to Monitor
  1. TX economy is better than, but still mirrors the
    U.S. Texas is not immune from the same forces
  2. Ike lives on. Clean-up costs and job loss still
    unknown
  3. TX economy has been buoyed by oil gas
    industries Lower oil prices will slow/reverse job
    growth. Upside is that the consumer benefits by
    lower gas prices
  4. Manufacturing will continue to shed jobs,
    globally, due to declining consumer demand, MA,
    technology
  5. Credit is the lifeblood. TX banks do better but
    credit still a problem affecting home builders,
    auto supply chain, credit institutions,
    commercial construction
  6. Defense spending likely to moderate, stunting
    growth

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Texas Economic Signposts to Monitor
  • 7. TX real estate market better than U.S. but
    still a problem. Likely to cool further, lower
    property values
  • 8. Job loss lags economic declines. Unemployment
    will continue to climb, will stay below U.S.
    averages
  • 9. Higher Urates will strain government services.
    Lower property values and declining sales taxes
    will decrease tax revenues and affect local
    government budgets
  • 10. Ripple effects of slower retail sales, less
    construction and job loss will impact the service
    sector. Health care, education jobs will endure.
  • 11. Stronger dollar slumping global economies
    will slow U.S. exports, bad for larger exporting
    states.

66
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