Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D. ISP

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
FutureMUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP MTA
FellowBelfer Center for Science and
International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of
GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY

• BCSIA Library
• December 2, 2004

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future

• The Past 500 years of historical relations
  (1492 1992)
• The Present Strategic relations since 1992
  (win-win)
• The Future Crossroads ahead? (win-win or
  loose-loose)

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future

• ...Ottomans embraced the persecuted Jews of
  Spain in 1492
• ...Jews have been loyal to the Ottoman Sultan
• ...Jews occupied high ranks in the Ottoman
  administration
• ...Jews supported Turkeys War of Liberation in
  1919-1922
• ...200 000 Jews had minority status in Turkey
  after Lausanne
• ...Most Jews gone to Israel but some 25 000
  remain in Turkey

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future

• ...Turkey recognized the State of Israel in 1949
  
• ...Ben Gurion sought close relations with Adnan
  Menderes
• ...Turkish domestic politics and religion
  obstructed relations
• ...NATO membership limited Turkeys interest in
  M. East
• ...Yom Kippur War and OPEC crisis deteriorated
  relations
• ...Coup in Turkey Jerusalem Law Intifada
  worsened

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future

• ...Gulf crisis demise of USSR made Turkey turn
  to M. East
• ...Peace Processes lifted Arabs tacit embargo
  on Turkey
• ...Redefinition of the relations as alliance
  axis entente
• ...Common concerns rogue states military
  capabilities
• ...Military cooperation agreement (1996) odd
  men out
• ...Turkey becomes virtual strategic depth of
  Israel

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future

• ...Potentially clashing interests over northern
  Iraq
• ...Turks concerns with an independent Kurdish
  state in Iraq
• ...Israelis concerns with Islamic Turkish
  government(s)
• ...Turks misperceptions about Jewish influence
  in US politics
• ...Bitter political statements by Turkish
  statesmen
• ...Israelis may prefer relying on Kurds rather
  than Turks

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future

• ...win-win if confidence and trust can be
  restored
• ...loose-loose if misperceptions
  miscalculation persist
• ...War against terror cannot be won with nukes
  or shields
• ...Intelligence information gathering is
  essential
• ...Turkeys commonalities with M. East C. Asia
  are crucial
• ...Strategic wisdom must prevail on both sides
  or both loose

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Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
FutureMUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP MTA
FellowBelfer Center for Science and
International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of
GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY

• BCSIA Library
• December 2, 2004