Jerry Velasquez, Ph.D. Senior Regional Coordinator International Strategy for Disaster Reduction United Nations Secretariat in Asia Pacific (UNISDR)

1
Jerry Velasquez, Ph.D.Senior Regional
CoordinatorInternational Strategy for Disaster
ReductionUnited Nations Secretariat in Asia
Pacific (UNISDR)
Avoiding the Unmanageable, Managing the
Unavoidable - Building Climate Resilience in
ASEAN
www.unisdr.org
ISDR-ESCAP Consultation Meeting on Coastal and
Climate Hazards, Priorities for the Indian Ocean
and Southeast Asia
2
(No Transcript)
3
The FutureClimate Threats and Building
Resilience in ASEAN
4
Key messages for ASEAN

• Average temp increased 0.10.3C/decade and sea
  level rose 13 mm/yr over the last 50 years.
  Downward trend in precipitation during 19602000.
• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme
  weather events is evidence that climate change is
  already affecting the region.
• Climate change is likely to intensify in the
  decades to come. The region is projected to warm
  further, become drier still in many parts,
  particularly in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet
  Nam and experience further rises in sea level.
• Likely to suffer more from climate change than
  the global average. The region therefore has a
  high stake in taking action.

5
How will the hazards change and by how much?from
April 09 ADB Study on the Economics of Climate
Change
6
(No Transcript)
7
Observed Temperature Changes in Southeast Asia
and Projected Changes in the Future
8
Observed Precipitation in Southeast Asia and
Projected Changes in the Future
9
Observed Changes in Extreme Events and Severe
Climate Anomalies in Southeast Asia
10
Projected Changes in Extreme Events and Severe
Climate Anomalies in Southeast Asia

• IPCC (2007) projects the following
• An increase in intense precipitation events and
  an increase in the inter-annual variability of
  daily precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon.
• An increase of 1020 in tropical cyclone
  intensity.
• Amplification in storm-surge heights, resulting
  in an enhanced risk of coastal disasters.

11
Observed Sea Level Rise in Southeast Asia
12
Projected Sea Level Rise in Southeast Asia
13
DRR and Climate Sensitive Sectors
14
Example of extreme event projection into the
future and impacts on sectors
15
Viet Nam Ho Chi Min City

• HCMC extreme flood (1 in 30 year) in 2050
• A2 scenario 26 cm SLR rainfall, storm surge
• without adaptation

16
Viet Nam Ho Chi Min City
HCMC extreme flood in 2050 with adaptation
(dyke system)
17
Viet Nam Ho Chi Min City
Sector Implications Transport Master Plan Ring
Road Plan (Scenario A2, 1 in 10 year flood, no
additional dykes)
18
Epidemic Malaria in Botswana
The disease is highly seasonal and follows the
rainy season with a lag of about 2 months
19
The Cost and Benefit of Adaptation from April
09 ADB Study on the Economics of Climate Change
20
Cost and Benefit Analysis - Estimating the future
economy-wide impact of climate change
21
Mean Total Loss ( of GDP) under Different
Scenarios in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand,
and Viet Nam
22
The Cost and Benefit of Adaptation
23
Benefits of investing in DRR

• China spent US 3.15 billion on flood control
  between 1960 and 2000, which is estimated to have
  averted losses of about US 12 billion.
• A mangrove-planting project in Vietnam aimed at
  protecting coastal populations from typhoons and
  storms yielded an estimated benefit/cost ratio of
  52 over the period 1994 to 2001.

24
Benefits of investing in DRR

• Bangladesh
• In 2007 Cyclone Sidr killed 3,400, leaving 1,000
  people missing and millions without livelihoods.
• In 1991 a similar cyclone killed 138,000 people
• In 1970 a similar cyclone killed 300,000 people
• Analysis shows that this result is directly due
  to the efforts of the Government disaster risk
  reduction, including response preparedness,
  supported by international partners.

25
Benefits of investing in DRR
Bangladesh Cyclone Sidr, November 2007 Myanmar Cyclone Nargis, May 2008
Cyclone Category Category 4 Category 3
Tidal Wave (and storm surge) 5 m (up to 6m) 3.5 m (up to 7m)
Wind speed 240 km/hr 255 km/hr
Population evacuated 3 million None
Deaths 3,406 84,537
Missing 1,001 53,836
Population severely affected 1 million 2.4 million
Cost of damage US1.67 billion US11 billion
Human Development Index (2007) 140 132
GDP (PPP, 2007) US1,400 US1,900
Population below poverty line (2004) 45 33
Table above from AusAID - Data sources Cyclone
Sidr statistics (World Bank 2008) Cyclone Nargis
statistics (USAID, ReliefWeb) Country statistics
(UNDP, website). Please note Cyclone Nargis data
is current as of 15 May 2008.
26
Adaptation-DRR Options from April 09 ADB Study
on the Economics of Climate Change
27
Key Messages for ASEAN

• ASEAN countries have made significant efforts to
  build adaptive capacity. There remains a need
  for enhancing policy and planning coordination
  across ministries and different levels of
  government for climate change adaptation.
• There is also a need for adopting a more holistic
  approach to building the adaptive capacity of
  vulnerable groups and localities and their
  resilience to shocks, including developing their
  capability to diversify local economies,
  livelihoods, and coping strategies.
• ASEAN countries have also made encouraging
  efforts in taking adaptation actions in key
  sectors. But most implemented to date have been
  reactive not proactive, autonomous not well
  planned.

28
Key Messages for ASEAN Climate Sensitive Sectors

• In water resources, priority is scale up good
  practices, and apply integrated water management,
  including flood control and prevention schemes.
• In the agriculture sector, the priority is to
  strengthen local adaptive capacity by providing
  public goods and services, such as better climate
  information, early warning systems and explore
  innovative risk-sharing instruments such as
  index-based insurance schemes.
• In the forestry sector, the priority is to
  enhance early warning systems and
  awareness-raising programs to better prepare for
  potentially more frequent forest fires as a
  result of climate change.

29
Key Messages for ASEAN Climate Sensitive Sectors

• In the coastal and marine resources sector, the
  priority is to implement integrated coastal zone
  management plans, including mangrove conservation
  and plantation.
• In the health sector, the priority is to expand
  or establish early warning systems for disease
  outbreaks, health surveillance, awareness-raising
  campaigns, and infectious disease control
  programs.
• In the infrastructure sector, the priority is to
  introduce climate proofing of transport-related
  investments and infrastructure.

30
How Important are these issues for countries so
far?
31
(No Transcript)
32
Source UNDP Human Development Report 2008
33
Conclusions from April 09 ADB Study on the
Economics of Climate Change
34
Conclusions

• Southeast Asiahighly vulnerable to climate
  changeis already suffering from its effects, and
  the worst is yet to come.
• If no action is taken, the four
  countriesIndonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and
  Viet Namcould suffer a loss equivalent to more
  than 6 of GDP annually by 2100, more than double
  the global average loss.

35
Conclusions

• ASEAN countries should continue efforts to
  enhance climate change resilience by building
  adaptive capacity and taking technical and
  non-technical adaptation measures in
  climate-sensitive sectors.
• Many sectors have adaptation needs but water,
  agriculture, forestry, coastal and marine
  resources, and health require particular
  attention.

36
Conclusions

• International financial and technology transfers
  are essential for the success of adaptation
  efforts in ASEAN.
• Many climate change issues can be better
  addressed through regional cooperation AADMER
  is your vehicle.

37
Conclusions

• Given that climate change is an issue that cuts
  across all parts and levels of the government,
  there is a need for strong inter-governmental
  agency policy coordination. Addressing climate
  change requires leadership at the highest level
  of government.
• More research is required to better understand
  climate change challenges and cost effective
  solutions at the local levels and to fill
  knowledge gaps.

38
Turning the economic crisis into an opportunity
In ASEAN, fiscal stimulus is being used by many
countries, including Thailand, Philippines,
Indonesia, and Singapore, to support domestic
demand through tax cuts, investment in
infrastructure, and increasing spending on social
programs. There may be scope for building into
such stimulus packages resilient investment
programs that combine adaptation measures with
efforts to shore up the economy, create jobs, and
reduce poverty. The present crisis offers an
opportunity to start a transition toward a
climate-resilient economy in ASEAN.
39
Thank you
UNISDR Secretariat Asia Pacific UNESCAP Building
- 4th Floor, Section B Rajdamnern Nok Avenue -
10400 Bangkok - Thailand Phone[phone]
Fax[phone]isdr-bkk_at_un.org