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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Texas Labor-Management Conference San Antonio, Texas May 28, 2003 Richard Froeschle, Director Career Development Resources ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market


1
The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
  • Texas Labor-Management Conference
  • San Antonio, Texas
  • May 28, 2003
  • Richard Froeschle, Director
  • Career Development Resources(CDR)
  • rich_at_cdr.state.tx.us
  • (512) 491-4941

2
Economic forecasting is a field that gives
Astrology a good name!
3
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4
Short Term Trends and the Economy
  • Overall job growth not occurring. Services are
    not making up for lost manufacturing jobs/wages.
    Watch personnel supply services!
  • Manufacturing jobs hardest hit, esp. telecom.
    Globalization increases price competition,
    challenges to market share. Commoditization
    Outsourcing
  • Capacity utilization at 20 year lows. No need for
    new investment in plant and equipment
  • Terrorist threats continue to dampen growth. War
    terrorism affect some industries more
    airlines, travel/lodging, retail (going to the
    mall)
  • High energy prices increase production costs,
    limit consumers. Lower prices help
    consumers/business

5
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6
Short Term Trends and the Economy (part 2)
  • Low interest rates good for some sectors,
    housing, financial services, autos
  • Low stock prices smaller profits lead to
    corporate cost containment. Bad stock market
    returns affect insurance industry, consumer
    wealth effect, tempers business expansion plans
  • Government, health services, education leading
    job growth engines
  • Overall consumer uncertainty and confidence
    levels fall and rise with war threats, gas
    prices, layoffs, corporate corruption, stock
    job market malaise

7
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
  • All my economists say, on the one, or on the
    other handwhat I really need is a one-handed
    economist.

8
What do labor economists agree on?
  • There will be no shortage of opportunities in the
    knowledge sector for those with the education and
    intelligence to perform in it
  • All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require
    higher levels of basic education, math,
    communication and technology skillsfor survival
    and growth
  • 3. Those without some specialized knowledge or
    skill are likely to suffer declining real wages

9
What do labor economists agree on? (II)
  • 4. The Digital Divide exists and those on the
    wrong side will have limited hiring and
    advancement opportunities
  • 5. Jobs requiring human touch will continue to
    be in demand e.g. health services and nursing,
    constructionno robot plumbers!
  • 6. Workplace settings and business practices and
    knowledges will change rapidly, making lifelong
    learning essential e.g. life after paving the
    cow path

10
A Changing Texas Labor Market
  • 1. If its not a recession, its still not fun!
    Downturn affects output, employment, tax
    revenues, employment in all sectors
  • 2. Economists still very divided on duration,
    turning point signals, and level of job growth in
    recovery

11
A Changing Texas Labor Market (2)
  • 3. Continued transition to services, not products
    for value-added and employment opportunities
  • Increase in high tech and high touch jobs
  • What comes after the Knowledge economy? The
    Creativity Economy? The Celebrity Economy?

12
Fewer Jobs in Goods Producing Sectors
13
Airlines, Oil Gas, Computer and Accounting
Services Shedding Jobs
14
Education, Health Govt. Buoy Economy
15
U.S. Industries Adding Most Jobs 2000-2010
  • 1. Computer and Data Processing 1.80 mil
  • 2. Retail Trade 1.60 mil
  • 3. Eating Drinking Places 1.48 mil
  • 4. Offices of Health Practitioners 1.24 mil
  • 5. State and Local Education 1.07 mil
  • 6. Misc. Business Services 1.00 mil
  • 7. Construction 824 thou
  • 8. State and Local Government 808 thou
  • 9. Wholesale Trade 776 thou
  • 10. Health Services, NEC 689 thou
  • 13. Residential Care 512 thou
  • 14. Hospitals 509 thou
  • 16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities 394 thou

16
More Jobs in Services
  • Texas Absolute Job Growth 1999-2002
  • Educational Services
  • Food Services/Drinking Places
  • Ambulatory Health Care Services
  • Professional and Technical Services
  • Local Government
  • Specialty Trade Contractors
  • General Merchandise Stores
  • Hospitals
  • Heavy and Civil Construction
  • Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

17
Job Declines in Goods Producing Sectors
  • Texas Industries Losing Most Jobs 1999-2002
  • Agriculture/Forestry Support
  • Computer/Electronic Manufacturing
  • Apparel Manufacturing
  • Transportation Equip Manufacturing
  • Fabricated Metal Manufacturing
  • Chemical Manufacturing
  • Oil Gas Extraction
  • Food Beverage Stores
  • Administrative Support Services
  • Federal Government

18
Texas Exports 2001
  • Computer/Electronics 25.7 billion 27.0
  • Chemicals 14.6 billion 15.4
  • Machinery, ex. Electrical 12.8 billion 13.5
  • Transportation Equipt 11.3 billion 11.8
  • Electrical Components 4.8 billion 5.1
  • Petroleum Products 3.7 billion 3.9
  • Fabricated Metals 3.2 billion 3.4
  • Plastic Rubber Prod 2.8 billion 2.9
  • Food Kindred 2.6 billion 2.7
  • Primary Metal Manuf. 2.1 billion 2.2
  • Agricultural Products 1.9 billion 2.0

19
A Changing Texas Labor Market (3)
  • 4. Technology implementation will enhance
    productivity and transform many job sites and
    skill sets. What jobs can be replaced by
    technology (sheep shearing, textile inspector,
    electronic insurance processing, voice
    recognition)? What jobs does technology create?
    see.
  • Burlington/Nano-Tex, Texasinabox.com

20
Technology Meets Apparel Manufacturing
21
Technology Meets Barbeque
22
More OutputNot More WorkersU.S. Projections
2000-2010 (annual)
  • Industry Sector Output Employment
  • Computers Related 7.0 1.6
  • Chemicals 3.3 .4
  • Industrial Machinery 6.1 .5
  • Transportation Equipment 3.7 1.1
  • Motor Vehicles 4.4 0.8
  • Electrical Equipment 5.3 0.6
  • Fabricated Metal Products 3.6 0.8
  • Plastics and Rubber 4.0 1.4
  • Telephone Communications 6.5 1.2
  • Computer Data Processing 8.0 6.4

23
A Changing Texas Labor Market (4)
  • 5. More jobs in small firms, greater use of
    leased and independent contract labor means fewer
    and shorter career ladders
  • 6. Higher overall workforce education levels
    encourage fewer internal career ladders, fewer
    growth options for unskilled when they get a job
    e.g. hire outside folks who dont need training

24
Pattern of Change 1989-2001 Texas Employment
Percentages by Firm Size
Firm Pct of Workers
Trend Size 1989 1992 1996
2001 0-4 4.92 5.78 5.16
5.0 SMALL INCREASE 5-9 5.68 7.02
5.97 5.6 SLIGHT DECLINE 10-19
6.92 9.12 8.01 7.7 INCREASE 20-49
10.26 14.52 13.11 12.9 INCREASE 50-99
8.34 11.62 10.91 11.1 BIG
INCREASE 100-249 11.52 14.64 14.56 15.0
BIG INCREASE 250-499 9.24 9.04 9.77
10.6 INCREASE 500-999 9.02 7.87 9.53
9.6 SMALL INCREASE 1000 34.10 20.48
22.98 22.6 MAJOR DECLINE
25
A Changing Texas Labor Market (5)
  • 7. For those working within companies,
    organizational structure moving from pyramid to
    flatter pyramid to hour glass, so fewer ports of
    entry for low skill workers
  • 8. Workplace earnings are increasingly correlated
    with education and earnings inequality is
    increasing based on education and the Digital
    Divide

26
(No Transcript)
27
Changing Nature of WorkNew Paradigm for Career
Ladders
  • Increased employment growth in service industries
    with higher percentages of workers in the
    secondary labor market
  • 2. More jobs being created in smaller firms with
    shorter or less well-defined promotional ladders
  • 3. Increased role for contingent workers,
    outsourcing, independent contractors
  • with few formal promotional ladders

28
 
29
A Changing Texas Labor Market (6)
  • 9. Globalization is changing economic theory,
    business practices and labor supply options
  • 10. Changing demography affects everything from
    education needs, working with diversity, consumer
    tastes, tax structure, retirement

30
How Globalization Impacts the Labor MarketThe
Basics
  • Globalization new digital technology opens
    producer/consumer markets around the world
  • Increased customer access to producers leads to
    global price competition, driving employer need
    for greater productivity, lower prices
  • Increased price competition leads to cost
    containment pressures
  • Cost containments leads employers to new supply
    chain practices, concerns over labor costs,
    alternative labor options

31
Population Pyramids for Anglo and Hispanic
Ethnic Groups in Texas, 2000
Anglo
Hispanic
Male Female
Male Female
32
Educational Attainment Concerns
  • Hispanics are much less likely to complete HS
    (62.8) than Blacks (86.8) or Whites (94)
  • Hispanic drop out rates (28.6) are twice as high
    as Blacks and four time higher than Whites
  • Hispanic and Black 15-17 year olds are more
    likely to be below modal grade
  • Hispanics HS grads are less likely to be enrolled
    in college than Blacks or Whites and much less
    likely to have received a Bachelors degree.

33
A Changing Texas Labor Market (7)
  • 11. A changing industry mix is resulting in
    changing occupational demand and skill sets, with
    an emphasis on lifelong learning.

34
Occupational Growth in Texas Fastest Growing
2000-2010
  • 8. Database Administrators
  • 9. Medical Records Technician
  • 10. Social Services Assistants
  • 11. Special Education Teachers
  • 12. Computer Systems Analysts
  • 13. Medical Assistants
  • 14. Physician Assistants
  • 15. Information Systems Mgrs.
  • 1. Computer Support Specialists
  • 2. Computer Software Engineers, Apps
  • 3. Network Systems Administrators
  • 4. Desktop Publishers
  • 5. Computer Software Engineers, Systems
  • 6. Network Data Communications Analysts
  • 7. Computer Specialist, NEC

35
Occupational Growth in Texas Most Jobs Created
2000-2010
  • 1. Customer Service Representatives
  • 2. Food Prep and Serving Workers, Fast Food
  • 3. Child Care Workers
  • 4. Retail Salespersons
  • 5. Registered Nurses
  • 6. Cashiers
  • 7. Computer Support Specialists
  • 8. Office Clerks, General
  • 9. Waiters Waitresses
  • 10. General and Operations
    Managers
  • 11. Elementary School Teacher
  • 12. Teacher Assistants
  • 13. Secondary School Teacher
  • 14. Janitors and Cleaners
  • 15. Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor
    Trailer

36
The Workplace of the Future...
  • The factory of the future has just one man and
    one dog. The mans job is to feed the dog. The
    dogs job is to keep the man from touching the
    equipment.
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