Title: The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
1The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
- Texas Labor-Management Conference
- San Antonio, Texas
- May 28, 2003
- Richard Froeschle, Director
- Career Development Resources(CDR)
- rich_at_cdr.state.tx.us
- (512) 491-4941
2Economic forecasting is a field that gives
Astrology a good name!
3(No Transcript)
4Short Term Trends and the Economy
- Overall job growth not occurring. Services are
not making up for lost manufacturing jobs/wages.
Watch personnel supply services! - Manufacturing jobs hardest hit, esp. telecom.
Globalization increases price competition,
challenges to market share. Commoditization
Outsourcing - Capacity utilization at 20 year lows. No need for
new investment in plant and equipment - Terrorist threats continue to dampen growth. War
terrorism affect some industries more
airlines, travel/lodging, retail (going to the
mall) - High energy prices increase production costs,
limit consumers. Lower prices help
consumers/business
5(No Transcript)
6Short Term Trends and the Economy (part 2)
- Low interest rates good for some sectors,
housing, financial services, autos - Low stock prices smaller profits lead to
corporate cost containment. Bad stock market
returns affect insurance industry, consumer
wealth effect, tempers business expansion plans - Government, health services, education leading
job growth engines - Overall consumer uncertainty and confidence
levels fall and rise with war threats, gas
prices, layoffs, corporate corruption, stock
job market malaise
7Harry Truman is purported to have said,
- All my economists say, on the one, or on the
other handwhat I really need is a one-handed
economist.
8What do labor economists agree on?
- There will be no shortage of opportunities in the
knowledge sector for those with the education and
intelligence to perform in it - All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require
higher levels of basic education, math,
communication and technology skillsfor survival
and growth - 3. Those without some specialized knowledge or
skill are likely to suffer declining real wages
9What do labor economists agree on? (II)
- 4. The Digital Divide exists and those on the
wrong side will have limited hiring and
advancement opportunities - 5. Jobs requiring human touch will continue to
be in demand e.g. health services and nursing,
constructionno robot plumbers! - 6. Workplace settings and business practices and
knowledges will change rapidly, making lifelong
learning essential e.g. life after paving the
cow path
10A Changing Texas Labor Market
- 1. If its not a recession, its still not fun!
Downturn affects output, employment, tax
revenues, employment in all sectors - 2. Economists still very divided on duration,
turning point signals, and level of job growth in
recovery
11A Changing Texas Labor Market (2)
- 3. Continued transition to services, not products
for value-added and employment opportunities - Increase in high tech and high touch jobs
- What comes after the Knowledge economy? The
Creativity Economy? The Celebrity Economy?
12Fewer Jobs in Goods Producing Sectors
13Airlines, Oil Gas, Computer and Accounting
Services Shedding Jobs
14Education, Health Govt. Buoy Economy
15U.S. Industries Adding Most Jobs 2000-2010
- 1. Computer and Data Processing 1.80 mil
- 2. Retail Trade 1.60 mil
- 3. Eating Drinking Places 1.48 mil
- 4. Offices of Health Practitioners 1.24 mil
- 5. State and Local Education 1.07 mil
- 6. Misc. Business Services 1.00 mil
- 7. Construction 824 thou
- 8. State and Local Government 808 thou
- 9. Wholesale Trade 776 thou
- 10. Health Services, NEC 689 thou
- 13. Residential Care 512 thou
- 14. Hospitals 509 thou
- 16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities 394 thou
16More Jobs in Services
- Texas Absolute Job Growth 1999-2002
- Educational Services
- Food Services/Drinking Places
- Ambulatory Health Care Services
- Professional and Technical Services
- Local Government
- Specialty Trade Contractors
- General Merchandise Stores
- Hospitals
- Heavy and Civil Construction
- Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
17Job Declines in Goods Producing Sectors
- Texas Industries Losing Most Jobs 1999-2002
- Agriculture/Forestry Support
- Computer/Electronic Manufacturing
- Apparel Manufacturing
- Transportation Equip Manufacturing
- Fabricated Metal Manufacturing
- Chemical Manufacturing
- Oil Gas Extraction
- Food Beverage Stores
- Administrative Support Services
- Federal Government
-
18Texas Exports 2001
- Computer/Electronics 25.7 billion 27.0
- Chemicals 14.6 billion 15.4
- Machinery, ex. Electrical 12.8 billion 13.5
- Transportation Equipt 11.3 billion 11.8
- Electrical Components 4.8 billion 5.1
- Petroleum Products 3.7 billion 3.9
- Fabricated Metals 3.2 billion 3.4
- Plastic Rubber Prod 2.8 billion 2.9
- Food Kindred 2.6 billion 2.7
- Primary Metal Manuf. 2.1 billion 2.2
- Agricultural Products 1.9 billion 2.0
19A Changing Texas Labor Market (3)
- 4. Technology implementation will enhance
productivity and transform many job sites and
skill sets. What jobs can be replaced by
technology (sheep shearing, textile inspector,
electronic insurance processing, voice
recognition)? What jobs does technology create?
see. - Burlington/Nano-Tex, Texasinabox.com
20Technology Meets Apparel Manufacturing
21Technology Meets Barbeque
22More OutputNot More WorkersU.S. Projections
2000-2010 (annual)
- Industry Sector Output Employment
- Computers Related 7.0 1.6
- Chemicals 3.3 .4
- Industrial Machinery 6.1 .5
- Transportation Equipment 3.7 1.1
- Motor Vehicles 4.4 0.8
- Electrical Equipment 5.3 0.6
- Fabricated Metal Products 3.6 0.8
- Plastics and Rubber 4.0 1.4
- Telephone Communications 6.5 1.2
- Computer Data Processing 8.0 6.4
23A Changing Texas Labor Market (4)
- 5. More jobs in small firms, greater use of
leased and independent contract labor means fewer
and shorter career ladders - 6. Higher overall workforce education levels
encourage fewer internal career ladders, fewer
growth options for unskilled when they get a job
e.g. hire outside folks who dont need training
24Pattern of Change 1989-2001 Texas Employment
Percentages by Firm Size
Firm Pct of Workers
Trend Size 1989 1992 1996
2001 0-4 4.92 5.78 5.16
5.0 SMALL INCREASE 5-9 5.68 7.02
5.97 5.6 SLIGHT DECLINE 10-19
6.92 9.12 8.01 7.7 INCREASE 20-49
10.26 14.52 13.11 12.9 INCREASE 50-99
8.34 11.62 10.91 11.1 BIG
INCREASE 100-249 11.52 14.64 14.56 15.0
BIG INCREASE 250-499 9.24 9.04 9.77
10.6 INCREASE 500-999 9.02 7.87 9.53
9.6 SMALL INCREASE 1000 34.10 20.48
22.98 22.6 MAJOR DECLINE
25A Changing Texas Labor Market (5)
- 7. For those working within companies,
organizational structure moving from pyramid to
flatter pyramid to hour glass, so fewer ports of
entry for low skill workers - 8. Workplace earnings are increasingly correlated
with education and earnings inequality is
increasing based on education and the Digital
Divide
26(No Transcript)
27Changing Nature of WorkNew Paradigm for Career
Ladders
- Increased employment growth in service industries
with higher percentages of workers in the
secondary labor market - 2. More jobs being created in smaller firms with
shorter or less well-defined promotional ladders - 3. Increased role for contingent workers,
outsourcing, independent contractors - with few formal promotional ladders
28 29A Changing Texas Labor Market (6)
- 9. Globalization is changing economic theory,
business practices and labor supply options - 10. Changing demography affects everything from
education needs, working with diversity, consumer
tastes, tax structure, retirement
30How Globalization Impacts the Labor MarketThe
Basics
- Globalization new digital technology opens
producer/consumer markets around the world - Increased customer access to producers leads to
global price competition, driving employer need
for greater productivity, lower prices - Increased price competition leads to cost
containment pressures - Cost containments leads employers to new supply
chain practices, concerns over labor costs,
alternative labor options
31Population Pyramids for Anglo and Hispanic
Ethnic Groups in Texas, 2000
Anglo
Hispanic
Male Female
Male Female
32Educational Attainment Concerns
- Hispanics are much less likely to complete HS
(62.8) than Blacks (86.8) or Whites (94) - Hispanic drop out rates (28.6) are twice as high
as Blacks and four time higher than Whites - Hispanic and Black 15-17 year olds are more
likely to be below modal grade - Hispanics HS grads are less likely to be enrolled
in college than Blacks or Whites and much less
likely to have received a Bachelors degree.
33A Changing Texas Labor Market (7)
- 11. A changing industry mix is resulting in
changing occupational demand and skill sets, with
an emphasis on lifelong learning.
34Occupational Growth in Texas Fastest Growing
2000-2010
- 8. Database Administrators
- 9. Medical Records Technician
- 10. Social Services Assistants
- 11. Special Education Teachers
- 12. Computer Systems Analysts
- 13. Medical Assistants
- 14. Physician Assistants
- 15. Information Systems Mgrs.
- 1. Computer Support Specialists
- 2. Computer Software Engineers, Apps
- 3. Network Systems Administrators
- 4. Desktop Publishers
- 5. Computer Software Engineers, Systems
- 6. Network Data Communications Analysts
- 7. Computer Specialist, NEC
35Occupational Growth in Texas Most Jobs Created
2000-2010
- 1. Customer Service Representatives
- 2. Food Prep and Serving Workers, Fast Food
- 3. Child Care Workers
- 4. Retail Salespersons
- 5. Registered Nurses
- 6. Cashiers
- 7. Computer Support Specialists
- 8. Office Clerks, General
- 9. Waiters Waitresses
- 10. General and Operations
Managers - 11. Elementary School Teacher
- 12. Teacher Assistants
- 13. Secondary School Teacher
- 14. Janitors and Cleaners
- 15. Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor
Trailer
36The Workplace of the Future...
- The factory of the future has just one man and
one dog. The mans job is to feed the dog. The
dogs job is to keep the man from touching the
equipment.