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COAL-TO-LIQUIDS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS IMPORTANCE TO THE AIR FORCE AND CIVILIAN AVIATION

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Title: COAL-TO-LIQUIDS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS IMPORTANCE TO THE AIR FORCE AND CIVILIAN AVIATION


1
COAL-TO-LIQUIDS TECHNOLOGY AND ITS IMPORTANCE TO
THE AIR FORCE AND CIVILIAN AVIATION
  • Presented at the Western Business
  • Roundtable Briefing on Coal-to-Liquids
  • Technology and Legislation
  • S-115, U.S. Capitol
  • February 27, 2007
  • Roger H. Bezdek. Ph.D., President
  • Management Information Services, Inc.
  • www.misi-net.com

2
THIS PRESENTATION
  • Summarize U.S. energy dependence
  • Assess implications of increasing energy imports
  • Discuss key role of coal in enhancing U.S. energy
    security
  • Describe coal-to-liquids (CTL) technology
  • Identify CTL advantages over alternate fuels
  • Estimate U.S. CTL potential
  • Discuss DOD and USAF interest in CTL fuels
  • Discuss U.S. commercial airlines interest in CTL
    fuels

3
U.S. ENERGY IMPORTS ARE INCREASING
  • EIA forecasts that by 2030 U.S. will be importing
    2/3 of its oil and nearly 25 of its natural gas
  • Source EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007,
    December 2006

4
SECURITY CONCERNS U.S. IMPORTS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE
5
SERIOUS RISKS TO U.S. OFINCREASING ENERGY IMPORTS
  • Excessive dependence on imported oil from OPEC
    and others
  • Potential of excessive dependence on imported
    natural gas
  • World oil production may soon peak and begin to
    decline
  • Record trade deficit (764 billion in 2006)
    driven by energy prices
  • Increased global competition from China, India,
    and others
  • Supply disruptions by natural disasters or
    terrorism
  • National security concerns

6
PRESIDENT BUSH REDUCE OIL IMPORT
DEPENDENCEFirst Thing to do Stop Digging!
  • Just to keep oil imports at current level will
    require an additional 5 MMbpd U.S. production of
    liquid fuels by 2025

7
COAL IS KEY TO U.S. ENERGY SECURITY AND
INDEPENDENCE
  • Eliminating U.S. oil imports by 2030 Southern
    States Energy Board, 2006

8

COAL IS AMERICAS MOSTABUNDANT FUEL
U.S. Fuel Resources
Electricity Fuel Sources
51.3
Oil 5
Gas 10
Coal 85
Percent of Electricity Generation
20.1
17.4
6.7
3.0
1.5
Oil
Gas
Coal
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Ultimately recoverable demonstrated reserves on
Btu basis. Source USGS, National Assessment of
United States Oil and Gas Resources, U.S. Coal
Reserves Energy Information Administration
Monthly Energy Review, August 2006 Table 7.2b,
2005 data.
9
LIQUID FUELS FROM COAL
U.S. Could Be the New Middle East1.55 Trillion
Barrels of Coal Synfuel
Old Middle East
U.S. Domestic Coal (oil equivalent)
Saudi Arabia 261.8 Billion Barrels Iraq 112.5
Billion Barrels UAE 97.8 Billion
Barrels Kuwait 96.5 Billion Barrels Iran 89.7
Billion Barrels Qatar 15.2 Billion
Barrels Oman 5.5 Billion Barrels Yemen 4.0
Billion Barrels Syria 2.5 Billion Barrels
Recoverable reserves 0.55 B Bbls Demonstrated
reserve base 1.0 T Bbls
TOTAL 686 Billion Barrels
TOTAL 1.55 T Bbls Equivalent
10
COAL-TO-LIQUIDS TECHNOLOGYA Proven Technology
Currently in Use World-Wide
10
11
FISCHER-TROPSCH TECHNOLOGY
Natural Gas Coal Pet Coke Biomass Wastes
Tail Gas
CO H2
FT Liquid Synthesis
Product Recovery
Synthesis Gas Production
Power Generation
O2
Hydrogen Recovery
Liquid Fuels
Wax
Oxygen Plant
Air
H2
An Option
Wax Hydrocracking
Hydrogen Separation
Liquid Fuels
Transportation Fuels
Hydrogen
12
ESTIMATES OF U.S. CTL POTENTIAL
  • SSEB Study (July 2006) 5.6 MMBPD by 2030
  • USDOE/National Energy Technology Laboratory Study
    (July 2006) 5.1 MMBPD by 2027
  • U.S. National Coal Council Study (March 2006)
    2.6 MMBPD by 2025
  • USDOE Unconventional Fuels Task Force (November
    2006) 2.5 MMBPD by 2035
  • Bottom Line All studies indicate huge potential
    for CTL in the USA

13
DOD ENERGY CONCERNS
  • Lack of secure reliable sources of energy
  • Dependent on foreign oil
  • Becoming dependent on foreign refined fuels
  • Supply chain vulnerability
  • Reliance on mega-refineries
  • Vulnerable to terrorist threats and natural
    disasters
  • Need for cleaner fuels
  • DoD exempt from some EPA regulations
  • Need for Better Fuels
  • Thermal stability, advanced engines, fuel cells
  • Need for Fewer Fuels
  • 9 Fuels presently in use
  • Potential limits on deployments
  • Possible conflict with EU rules

DoD intends to catalyze the commercial industry
to produce clean fuels for the military from
secure domestic resources using environmentally
sensitive processes to enable a bridge to the
future.
Theodore K. Barna, Ph.D. Assistant Deputy Under
Secretary of Defense/ Advanced Systems and
Concepts
14
DOD GOAL SINGLE BATTLESPACE FUELFROM
UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCES
Fischer-Tropsch Fuels
Current and advanced gas turbine aircraft (Jet
A/JP-8 replacement)
low emissions, high stability
2.2X 5X increase in cooling
high stability, endotherm
reduced exhaust pollutants
high cetane, gt74
High thermal stability, high H/C
No poisoning, less coking of reformer catalyst
No sulfur, no aromatics
1200 Btu/lb cooling
Single Fuel for the Navy

Army and Marine Equipment
Hydrocarbon reformers (fuel cell power generation)
ISP362.5
Hydrocarbon Rockets (RP-1 replacement)
Hypersonic Vehicles (JP-7 replacement)
Ships (JP-5/F-76 replacement)
15
USG/DOD/AF FUEL UTILIZATION (USAF USES 57 OF USG
FUEL)
Other Govt 7.5
U.S.
Govt
Govt 1.9
of U.S. government petroleum consumption DOE
DoD 92.5
of 20.5M bbl/day US petroleum consumption (861M
gal/day)DOE
Non Govt 98.1
4.2 Trainers
Marinesother 1
7.1 Bombers
Army 9
AF
4.4 Other
DoD
54.2 Mobility Tankers Transports
AF 57 (2.84B, 2.8B gal)
of AF fuel consumed by aircraft type (FY98-04)
Navy 33
30.1 Fighters
of DESC petroleum purchases FY04 (4.96B).
Includes nat gas missile fuels, but they are
2 of total.
NOTE! FY04 JP-80.91/gal. FY062.14/gal
16
DOD ENERGY USETOTAL SITE-DELIVERED ENERGY (BTU)
Commodity
Nations single largest energy user (1 of total
U.S. energy use 78 of Federal energy use)
Electricity
Jet Fuel
18
71
Application
Fuel Oil
3
Natural
Gas 8
Coal
Diesel
2.3
1.6
10.9B
Auto Gas
Steam
1
0.7
919 Trillion BTU
Other
0.8
17
AIR FORCE ENERGY USE (COST)
AF Energy Bill (Fuel) exceeds 10M per day Every
10/barrel increase drives up AF fuel costs 600M
per year
18
ENERGY THE USAF VIEWAF is, by far,
Governments Largest User of Fuel
  • Energy is an Economic Security Issue
  • 5B/yr 80 supports aviation operations
  • Costs have doubled since 9/11
  • Energy is a National Security Issue
  • Flying hours cuts hurt training and combat
    readiness
  • Assured, domestic sources of supply required
  • Resilient reliable energy distribution
    capability needed
  • Post-Katrina/Rita crude oil prices remain high
  • Worldwide oil market remains jittery
  • Gulf of Mexico shut-in production capacity
    constrained
  • Energy price forecasts to remain elevated through
    2007
  • The Air Forces energy problem is a subset of the
    Nations problem at large the AF can demonstrate
    leadership
  • While energy conservation can help, a more
    comprehensive Air Force energy strategy is
    required
  • Develop enough independence to have assured
    domestic supplies for aviation purposes

19
USAF AVIATION FUEL COSTS TRENDS
Aviation Fuel Consumption in Gallons
Fuel Cost (TY) and Gallons Per Flying Hour
Total aviation fuel costs (TY)
  • Aviation fuel consumption-rate increased 6
    during last 10-yrs
  • Fuel CPFH has increased 144
  • Some factors
  • Fuel consumption jumped in support of GWOT
  • Standard price of aviation fuel increased
    dramatically FY04 FY05
  • AF is committed to reducing U.S. dependence on
    Middle Eastern oil by innovative practices and
    pursuit of latest technologies

20
AIR FORCE PROGRAM
  • AF Goals
  • Accelerate development and use of alternative
    fuels
  • Increase use of synfuels to 100 million gallons
    in the next two years
  • 50 of fuel will be synfuels by 2016
  • Secretary of the Air Force request
    Demonstration of F-T fuel in manned Air Force
    aircraft accomplished in a B-52
  • Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) is lead
    organization
  • AFMC to define steps after demo
  • Partner with industry to facilitate development
    of U.S. synfuel industry

21
USAF SYNTHETIC FUEL PROGRAM PLAN
  • Continue to build consensus signal intent to the
    industry
  • Aviation Flight Demonstration
  • Procure 100,000 gals Synfuel distribute to
    TACOM, Pax River, WP-AFB, WR- ALC, OC-ALC
    Edwards AFB
  • Conduct basic materials compatibility testing at
    WPAFB, TACOM-Detroit, Naval Fuels lab _at_ Pax
    River publish results
  • Conduct diesel engine tests at TACOM- Detroit and
    SWRI
  • Conduct Solid Oxide Fuel Cell tests at WR-ALC,
    GA, publish results
  • Static ground engine runs at Tinker AFB, collect
    some science, publish results
  • On wing ground engine runs at Edwards AFB,
    collect some science, publish results
  • B-52 Flight Test, collect some science, publish
    results
  • DESC (DLA) Request for Information (RFI)
  • Seek industry response to a broad area
    questionnaire on the readiness/interest to
    invest in large scale, long term Synfuel
    production capability in support of long- term
    defense contracts
  • Analyze results from RFI and other Studies

22
FISCHER-TROPSCH FUELS BENEFITS
Significantly Reduced Emissions
Relative Total Deposition ECAT (6 Hrs)
Deposition, micrograms/cc
S-8
JP-8
JP-7
SR-71
Superior Low Temperature Properties
S-5
Excellent Thermal Stability at High temperature
23
COMMERCIAL AIRLINES ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT
RISING FUEL PRICES
  • Fuel has overtaken labor as the largest
  • operating expense for most U.S. airlines
  • Fuel now constitutes 25 30 of total airline
  • operating costs twice the historical average
  • When the price per gallon of jet fuel increases
  • by just one cent/gal., it costs the industry an
  • additional 195 million in annual operating
    expenses
  • American Airlines, which uses more oil annually
    than the country of Ireland, in 2005 paid 2.8
    billion more for fuel costs than in 2003.
  • Unlike other modes of transport, aircraft
    currently have no alternative source of energy

24
JET FUEL PRICES HAVE RISEN EVENMORE RAPIDLY THAN
CRUDE OIL
Jet fuel costs have tripled in 4 years
25
U.S. AIRLINES CONCERNED ABOUTFUTURE FUEL
AVAILABILITY
  • Fuel requirements for civilian aviation are
    increasing rapidly, and by 2030 will account for
    half of total U.S. domestic oil production

26
CTL PROVIDES THE ANSWER
  • Aircraft have highly specialized demands
  • for fuel that exceed the requirements for
  • most other petroleum products
  • Synthetic fuel using CTL technology offers
  • most promise as a alternative aviation fuel
  • It can meet current specifications and
  • no aircraft redesign is required
  • CTL can provide a drop-in replacement for jet
    fuel
  • Bio-fuels are not currently compatible with
  • aircraft requirements
  • Synthetic aviation fuels derived from coal
  • are currently being used in some parts
  • of the world

27
INDIVIDUAL AIRLINES ARE ENCOURAGINGSYNFUEL
DEVELOPMENT
  • Air Transport Association of America individual
    airlines are encouraging synfuel development
  • David Neeleman, JetBlue
  • founder and CEO
  • Fred Smith, Federal Express
  • founder and CEO
  • Richard Branson, Virgin Airlines
  • founder and CEO
  • ATA Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels
    Initiative begun in October 2006 to assess
    alternative aviation fuels address rising fuel
    prices supply instability
  • Coal-based JP900 fuel could be used in
    commercial jetliners. Superior performance
    characteristics could reduce U.S. requirements
    for petroleum-based aviation fuels by 75
  • Richard Branson, Virgin Airlines, advocates
    aviation bio-fuels
  • South African Airways has been utilizing
    coal-derived aviation fuel for the past decade

28
SUMMARY (1)
  • U.S. oil imports are increasing, and may exceed
    2/3 by 2030
  • U.S. energy dependence causing economic, foreign
    policy, and national security problems
  • Coal can and must play a key role in reducing
    U.S. energy imports and enhancing national
    security
  • U.S. coal reserves are twice the oil equivalent
    of the entire Mideast
  • CTL technology is well-proven and currently in
    use in other nations
  • U.S. CTL potential is estimated to be up to 5
    MMbpd within 23 years
  • DOD and USAF have immense liquid fuel needs and
    need to rely on CTL fuel
  • U.S. airlines are concerned about future price
    and availability of jet fuel and are interested
    in CTL fuels
  • U.S. must develop a viable CTL industry

29
SUMMARY (2)
  • U.S. Air Force is serious about using synthetic
    fuel blends (near term goal 50 synfuels by
    2016)
  • B-52 Flight Demo completed
  • Future demonstrations are being investigated
  • Potential 100M gal purchase in 2008/09
  • Establish certification process
  • Ongoing research into the development use of
    fully synthetic fuel (far term)
  • Assess operability/durability impacts
  • Understand role of aromatics and materials
  • Maximizes benefits of synthetic jet fuel
  • Develop ST tech base for Single
  • Battlespace Fuel
  • Work with industry to catalyze development
  • of U.S. synfuel industry

30
SUMMARY (3)
  • Fuel is now largest single cost for
  • U.S. airlines
  • Airlines concerned about future price,
    volatility,
  • and availability of fuel
  • Coal-based synfuels are only viable
  • alternative can meet current specifications
  • Coal-based JP900 fuel could reduce U.S.
  • requirements for petroleum-based aviation
  • fuels by 75
  • Individual airlines are pursuing synfuel
  • initiatives and promoting federal legislation
  • Air Transport Association has begun the
  • Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative

31
THANK YOU!
  • ROGER H. BEZDEK, PH.D.
  • PRESIDENT
  • MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SERVICES, INC.
  • 202-889-1324
  • rbezdek_at_misi-net.com
  • www.misi-net.com

32
LOCAL CONTACT INFORMATION
  • While in Australia through July 6,
  • Dr. Bezdek can be contacted via ASPO Australia
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