Title: The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
1The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
- Stephen F. Austin University
- Nacogdoches, Texas
- April 10, 2003
- Richard Froeschle, Director
- Career Development Resources(CDR)
- rich_at_cdr.state.tx.us
- (512) 491-4941
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3Economic forecasting is a field that gives
Astrology a good name!
4A Changing Texas Labor Market
- 1. If its not a recession, its still not fun!
Downturn affects output, employment, tax
revenues, employment in all sectors - 2. Economists still very divided on duration,
turning point signals, and level of job growth in
recovery
5Harry Truman is purported to have said,
- All my economists say, on the one, or on the
other handwhat I really need is a one-handed
economist.
6Short Term Trends and the Economy
- Overall job growth not occurring
- Manufacturing jobs hardest hit, esp. telecom
- Low interest rates good for some sectors,
housing, financial services, autos - Low stock prices lead to cost containment. Bad
market returns affect Insurance, wealth effect - War uncertainty tempers business expansion plans
- High energy prices hit production costs,
consumers - War terrorism affect some industries more
airlines, travel/lodging, retail - Government, health services leading growth
engines - Consumer confidence levels fall with war, gas
prices, layoffs, corporate corruption, market
malaise
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8What do labor economists agree on?
- There will be no shortage of opportunities in the
knowledge sector for those with the education and
intelligence to perform in it - All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require
higher levels of basic education, math,
communication and technology skillsfor survival
and growth - 3. Those without some specialized knowledge or
skill are likely to suffer declining real wages
9What do labor economists agree on? (II)
- 4. The Digital Divide exists and those on the
wrong side will have limited hiring and
advancement opportunities - 5. Jobs requiring human touch will continue to
be in demand e.g. health services and nursing,
constructionno robot plumbers! - 6. Workplace settings and business practices and
knowledges will change rapidly, making lifelong
learning essential e.g. life after paving the
cow path
10A Changing Texas Labor Market (2)
- 3. Continued transition to services, not products
for value-added and employment opportunities - Increase in high tech and high touch jobs
- What comes after the Knowledge economy? The
Creativity Economy? The Celebrity Economy?
11Fewer Jobs in Goods Producing Sectors
12Airlines, Oil Gas, Computer and Accounting
Services Shedding Jobs
13Education, Health Govt. Buoy Economy
14U.S. Industries Adding Most Jobs 2000-2010
- 1. Computer and Data Processing 1.80 mil
- 2. Retail Trade 1.60 mil
- 3. Eating Drinking Places 1.48 mil
- 4. Offices of Health Practitioners 1.24 mil
- 5. State and Local Education 1.07 mil
- 6. Misc. Business Services 1.00 mil
- 7. Construction 824 thou
- 8. State and Local Government 808 thou
- 9. Wholesale Trade 776 thou
- 10. Health Services, NEC 689 thou
- 13. Residential Care 512 thou
- 14. Hospitals 509 thou
- 16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities 394 thou
15More Jobs in Services
- Texas Absolute Job Growth 1999-2002
- Educational Services
- Food Services/Drinking Places
- Ambulatory Health Care Services
- Professional and Technical Services
- Local Government
- Specialty Trade Contractors
- General Merchandise Stores
- Hospitals
- Heavy and Civil Construction
- Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
16Job Declines in Goods Producing Sectors
- Texas Industries Losing Most Jobs 1999-2002
- Agriculture/Forestry Support
- Computer/Electronic Manufacturing
- Apparel Manufacturing
- Transportation Equip Manufacturing
- Fabricated Metal Manufacturing
- Chemical Manufacturing
- Oil Gas Extraction
- Food Beverage Stores
- Administrative Support Services
- Federal Government
-
17Texas Exports 2001
- Computer/Electronics 25.7 billion 27.0
- Chemicals 14.6 billion 15.4
- Machinery, ex. Electrical 12.8 billion 13.5
- Transportation Equipt 11.3 billion 11.8
- Electrical Components 4.8 billion 5.1
- Petroleum Products 3.7 billion 3.9
- Fabricated Metals 3.2 billion 3.4
- Plastic Rubber Prod 2.8 billion 2.9
- Food Kindred 2.6 billion 2.7
- Primary Metal Manuf. 2.1 billion 2.2
- Agricultural Products 1.9 billion 2.0
18A Changing Texas Labor Market (3)
- 4. Technology implementation will enhance
productivity and transform many job sites and
skill sets. What jobs can be replaced by
technology (sheep shearing, textile inspector,
electronic insurance processing, voice
recognition)? What jobs does technology create?
see. - Burlington/Nano-Tex, Texasinabox.com
19Technology Meets Apparel Manufacturing
20Technology Meets Barbeque
21More OutputNot More WorkersU.S. Projections
2000-2010 (annual)
- Industry Sector Output Employment
- Computers Related 7.0 1.6
- Chemicals 3.3 .4
- Industrial Machinery 6.1 .5
- Transportation Equipment 3.7 1.1
- Motor Vehicles 4.4 0.8
- Electrical Equipment 5.3 0.6
- Fabricated Metal Products 3.6 0.8
- Plastics and Rubber 4.0 1.4
- Telephone Communications 6.5 1.2
- Computer Data Processing 8.0 6.4
22A Changing Texas Labor Market (4)
- 5. More jobs in small firms, greater use of
leased and independent contract labor means fewer
and shorter career ladders - 6. Higher overall workforce education levels
encourage fewer internal career ladders, fewer
growth options for unskilled when they get a job
e.g. hire outside folks who dont need training
23Texas Employment Distribution by Firm Size First
Quarter 2001
Firm Of Firms Statewide Of Workers
Statewide Size No. Percent No.
Percent 0-4 243,788 55.3 462,175
5.0 5-9 77,816 17.7 520,016 5.6 10-19
52,239 11.9 723,532 7.7 20-49 38,203
8.7 1,203,531 12.9 50-99
14,554 3.3 1,040,977
11.1 100-249 8,820 2.0
1,396,492 15.0 250-499 2,826 0.6
992,058 10.6 500-999 1,242 0.3
891,835 9.6 1,000 plus 843 0.2
2,106,265 22.6 Total 440,331
100.0 9,336,881 100.0
24Pattern of Change 1989-2001 Texas Employment
Percentages by Firm Size
Firm Pct of Workers
Trend Size 1989 1992 1996
2001 0-4 4.92 5.78 5.16
5.0 SMALL INCREASE 5-9 5.68 7.02
5.97 5.6 SLIGHT DECLINE 10-19
6.92 9.12 8.01 7.7 INCREASE 20-49
10.26 14.52 13.11 12.9 INCREASE 50-99
8.34 11.62 10.91 11.1 BIG
INCREASE 100-249 11.52 14.64 14.56 15.0
BIG INCREASE 250-499 9.24 9.04 9.77
10.6 INCREASE 500-999 9.02 7.87 9.53
9.6 SMALL INCREASE 1000 34.10 20.48
22.98 22.6 MAJOR DECLINE
25A Changing Texas Labor Market (5)
- 7. For those working within companies,
organizational structure moving from pyramid to
flatter pyramid to hour glass, so fewer ports of
entry for low skill workers - 8. Workplace earnings are increasingly correlated
with education and earnings inequality is
increasing based on education and the Digital
Divide
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27Changing Nature of WorkNew Paradigm for Career
Ladders
- Increased employment growth in service industries
with higher percentages of workers in the
secondary labor market - 2. More jobs being created in smaller firms with
shorter or less well-defined promotional ladders - 3. Increased role for contingent workers,
outsourcing, independent contractors - with few formal promotional ladders
28 29Lifetime Earnings by Education Level in Texas
Education Level Estimated Estimated Texas
2000 Lifetime
Hourly Work Life Hours Earnings
Earnings Short-term training 83,200
8.26 687,232 Moderate-term training 83,200 11
.32 941,824 Long-term OJT 83,200 12.12
1,008,384 Work Experience 83,200 15.85
1,318,720 Post-sec Vocational
Award 83,200 13.30 1,106,560 Associate
s Degree 83,200 17.72
1,474,304 Bachelors Degree 83,200 19.74
1,642,368 Bachelors Experience 83,200 24
.82 2,065,024 Masters
Degree 83,200 18.51
1,540,032 Doctoral Degree 83,200 19.53
1,624,896 First Professional Degree
83,200 35.61 2,962,752
30A Changing Texas Labor Market (6)
- 9. Globalization is changing economic theory,
business practices and labor supply options - 10. Changing demography affects everything from
education needs, working with diversity, consumer
tastes, tax structure, retirement
31Population Pyramids for Anglo and Hispanic
Ethnic Groups in Texas, 2000
Anglo
Hispanic
Male Female
Male Female
32Educational Attainment Concerns
- Hispanics are much less likely to complete HS
(62.8) than Blacks (86.8) or Whites (94) - Hispanic drop out rates (28.6) are twice as high
as Blacks and four time higher than Whites - Hispanic and Black 15-17 year olds are more
likely to be below modal grade - Hispanics HS grads are less likely to be enrolled
in college than Blacks or Whites and much less
likely to have received a Bachelors degree.
33A Changing Texas Labor Market (7)
- 11. A changing industry mix is resulting in
changing occupational demand and skill sets, with
an emphasis on lifelong learning.
34Projected Fastest Growing OccupationsBLS
National 2000-2010
- Fastest Growing
- Computer Software Engineers Applications
- Computer Support Specialists
- Computer Software Engineers Systems
- Network Administrators
- Systems Communication Analyst
- Desktop Publishers
- Database Administrators
- Personal Home Care Aides
- Computer Systems Analysts
- Medical Assistants
- Adding Most Jobs
- Fast food Prep Wrkers
- Customer Service Reps
- Registered Nurses
- Retail Sales Workers
- Computer Support Specialists
- Cashiers, ex. Gaming
- General Office Clerks
- Security Guards
- Software Applications Engineers
- Waiter/Waitress
35Occupational Growth in Texas Fastest Growing
2000-2010
- 8. Database Administrators
- 9. Medical Records Technician
- 10. Social Services Assistants
- 11. Special Education Teachers
- 12. Computer Systems Analysts
- 13. Medical Assistants
- 14. Physician Assistants
- 15. Information Systems Mgrs.
- 1. Computer Support Specialists
- 2. Computer Software Engineers, Apps
- 3. Network Systems Administrators
- 4. Desktop Publishers
- 5. Computer Software Engineers, Systems
- 6. Network Data Communications Analysts
- 7. Computer Specialist, NEC
36Occupational Growth in Texas Most Jobs Created
2000-2010
- 1. Customer Service Representatives
- 2. Food Prep and Serving Workers, Fast Food
- 3. Child Care Workers
- 4. Retail Salespersons
- 5. Registered Nurses
- 6. Cashiers
- 7. Computer Support Specialists
- 8. Office Clerks, General
- 9. Waiters Waitresses
- 10. General and Operations
Managers - 11. Elementary School Teacher
- 12. Teacher Assistants
- 13. Secondary School Teacher
- 14. Janitors and Cleaners
- 15. Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor
Trailer
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38CDR Products and Services
39Texas CARES 2002
40Texas CARES
Career Alternatives Resource Evaluation
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41Texas Job Hunters Guide
Career Development Resources
42Succeed at Work
Workforce Magazine
Maintaining a Proper Attitude
Managing Your Career
Career Development Resources
Living a Balanced Life
Starting a New Job
Work Ethics
43Licensed Occupations and Apprenticeship Program
Contacts in Texas
Career Development Resources
44Starting the Conversation Parents Guide to
Student Career Development
Career Development Resources
45Emerging and Evolving Occupations in Texas
Career Development Resources
46 Labor Specialists
NEW!
Essays on Labor Market Topics for
Workforce Planners or Case Workers
Technology Workers In The New Texas Economy
Career Development Resources
Student Follow-up
Biotechnology Impact On Emerging and Evolving
Occupations in Texas
47Sources for LMI Data
- 1. SOCRATES Website
- http//socrates.cdr.state.tx.us
- 2. TRACER
- www.twc.state.tx.us/lmi/tracer/tracerhome.htm
- 3. iOSCAR skills transferability system
- www.iOSCAR.org
- 4. Career Development Resources (CDR) Website
- www.cdr.state.tx.us
- 5. Career Development Resources (CDR) Hotline
- 1-800-822-PLAN