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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Stephen F. Austin University Nacogdoches, Texas April 10, 2003 Richard Froeschle, Director Career Development Resources(CDR) – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market


1
The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
  • Stephen F. Austin University
  • Nacogdoches, Texas
  • April 10, 2003
  • Richard Froeschle, Director
  • Career Development Resources(CDR)
  • rich_at_cdr.state.tx.us
  • (512) 491-4941

2
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3
Economic forecasting is a field that gives
Astrology a good name!
4
A Changing Texas Labor Market
  • 1. If its not a recession, its still not fun!
    Downturn affects output, employment, tax
    revenues, employment in all sectors
  • 2. Economists still very divided on duration,
    turning point signals, and level of job growth in
    recovery

5
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
  • All my economists say, on the one, or on the
    other handwhat I really need is a one-handed
    economist.

6
Short Term Trends and the Economy
  • Overall job growth not occurring
  • Manufacturing jobs hardest hit, esp. telecom
  • Low interest rates good for some sectors,
    housing, financial services, autos
  • Low stock prices lead to cost containment. Bad
    market returns affect Insurance, wealth effect
  • War uncertainty tempers business expansion plans
  • High energy prices hit production costs,
    consumers
  • War terrorism affect some industries more
    airlines, travel/lodging, retail
  • Government, health services leading growth
    engines
  • Consumer confidence levels fall with war, gas
    prices, layoffs, corporate corruption, market
    malaise

7
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8
What do labor economists agree on?
  • There will be no shortage of opportunities in the
    knowledge sector for those with the education and
    intelligence to perform in it
  • All jobs, even the most low-skilled, will require
    higher levels of basic education, math,
    communication and technology skillsfor survival
    and growth
  • 3. Those without some specialized knowledge or
    skill are likely to suffer declining real wages

9
What do labor economists agree on? (II)
  • 4. The Digital Divide exists and those on the
    wrong side will have limited hiring and
    advancement opportunities
  • 5. Jobs requiring human touch will continue to
    be in demand e.g. health services and nursing,
    constructionno robot plumbers!
  • 6. Workplace settings and business practices and
    knowledges will change rapidly, making lifelong
    learning essential e.g. life after paving the
    cow path

10
A Changing Texas Labor Market (2)
  • 3. Continued transition to services, not products
    for value-added and employment opportunities
  • Increase in high tech and high touch jobs
  • What comes after the Knowledge economy? The
    Creativity Economy? The Celebrity Economy?

11
Fewer Jobs in Goods Producing Sectors
12
Airlines, Oil Gas, Computer and Accounting
Services Shedding Jobs
13
Education, Health Govt. Buoy Economy
14
U.S. Industries Adding Most Jobs 2000-2010
  • 1. Computer and Data Processing 1.80 mil
  • 2. Retail Trade 1.60 mil
  • 3. Eating Drinking Places 1.48 mil
  • 4. Offices of Health Practitioners 1.24 mil
  • 5. State and Local Education 1.07 mil
  • 6. Misc. Business Services 1.00 mil
  • 7. Construction 824 thou
  • 8. State and Local Government 808 thou
  • 9. Wholesale Trade 776 thou
  • 10. Health Services, NEC 689 thou
  • 13. Residential Care 512 thou
  • 14. Hospitals 509 thou
  • 16. Nursing/Personal Care Facilities 394 thou

15
More Jobs in Services
  • Texas Absolute Job Growth 1999-2002
  • Educational Services
  • Food Services/Drinking Places
  • Ambulatory Health Care Services
  • Professional and Technical Services
  • Local Government
  • Specialty Trade Contractors
  • General Merchandise Stores
  • Hospitals
  • Heavy and Civil Construction
  • Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

16
Job Declines in Goods Producing Sectors
  • Texas Industries Losing Most Jobs 1999-2002
  • Agriculture/Forestry Support
  • Computer/Electronic Manufacturing
  • Apparel Manufacturing
  • Transportation Equip Manufacturing
  • Fabricated Metal Manufacturing
  • Chemical Manufacturing
  • Oil Gas Extraction
  • Food Beverage Stores
  • Administrative Support Services
  • Federal Government

17
Texas Exports 2001
  • Computer/Electronics 25.7 billion 27.0
  • Chemicals 14.6 billion 15.4
  • Machinery, ex. Electrical 12.8 billion 13.5
  • Transportation Equipt 11.3 billion 11.8
  • Electrical Components 4.8 billion 5.1
  • Petroleum Products 3.7 billion 3.9
  • Fabricated Metals 3.2 billion 3.4
  • Plastic Rubber Prod 2.8 billion 2.9
  • Food Kindred 2.6 billion 2.7
  • Primary Metal Manuf. 2.1 billion 2.2
  • Agricultural Products 1.9 billion 2.0

18
A Changing Texas Labor Market (3)
  • 4. Technology implementation will enhance
    productivity and transform many job sites and
    skill sets. What jobs can be replaced by
    technology (sheep shearing, textile inspector,
    electronic insurance processing, voice
    recognition)? What jobs does technology create?
    see.
  • Burlington/Nano-Tex, Texasinabox.com

19
Technology Meets Apparel Manufacturing
20
Technology Meets Barbeque
21
More OutputNot More Workers U.S. Projections
2000-2010 (annual)
  • Industry Sector Output Employment
  • Computers Related 7.0 1.6
  • Chemicals 3.3 .4
  • Industrial Machinery 6.1 .5
  • Transportation Equipment 3.7 1.1
  • Motor Vehicles 4.4 0.8
  • Electrical Equipment 5.3 0.6
  • Fabricated Metal Products 3.6 0.8
  • Plastics and Rubber 4.0 1.4
  • Telephone Communications 6.5 1.2
  • Computer Data Processing 8.0 6.4

22
A Changing Texas Labor Market (4)
  • 5. More jobs in small firms, greater use of
    leased and independent contract labor means fewer
    and shorter career ladders
  • 6. Higher overall workforce education levels
    encourage fewer internal career ladders, fewer
    growth options for unskilled when they get a job
    e.g. hire outside folks who dont need training

23
Texas Employment Distribution by Firm Size First
Quarter 2001
Firm Of Firms Statewide Of Workers
Statewide Size No. Percent No.
Percent 0-4 243,788 55.3 462,175
5.0 5-9 77,816 17.7 520,016 5.6 10-19
52,239 11.9 723,532 7.7 20-49 38,203
8.7 1,203,531 12.9 50-99
14,554 3.3 1,040,977
11.1 100-249 8,820 2.0
1,396,492 15.0 250-499 2,826 0.6
992,058 10.6 500-999 1,242 0.3
891,835 9.6 1,000 plus 843 0.2
2,106,265 22.6 Total 440,331
100.0 9,336,881 100.0
24
Pattern of Change 1989-2001 Texas Employment
Percentages by Firm Size
Firm Pct of Workers
Trend Size 1989 1992 1996
2001 0-4 4.92 5.78 5.16
5.0 SMALL INCREASE 5-9 5.68 7.02
5.97 5.6 SLIGHT DECLINE 10-19
6.92 9.12 8.01 7.7 INCREASE 20-49
10.26 14.52 13.11 12.9 INCREASE 50-99
8.34 11.62 10.91 11.1 BIG
INCREASE 100-249 11.52 14.64 14.56 15.0
BIG INCREASE 250-499 9.24 9.04 9.77
10.6 INCREASE 500-999 9.02 7.87 9.53
9.6 SMALL INCREASE 1000 34.10 20.48
22.98 22.6 MAJOR DECLINE
25
A Changing Texas Labor Market (5)
  • 7. For those working within companies,
    organizational structure moving from pyramid to
    flatter pyramid to hour glass, so fewer ports of
    entry for low skill workers
  • 8. Workplace earnings are increasingly correlated
    with education and earnings inequality is
    increasing based on education and the Digital
    Divide

26
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27
Changing Nature of Work New Paradigm for Career
Ladders
  • Increased employment growth in service industries
    with higher percentages of workers in the
    secondary labor market
  • 2. More jobs being created in smaller firms with
    shorter or less well-defined promotional ladders
  • 3. Increased role for contingent workers,
    outsourcing, independent contractors
  • with few formal promotional ladders

28
 
29
Lifetime Earnings by Education Level in Texas
Education Level Estimated Estimated Texas
2000 Lifetime
Hourly Work Life Hours Earnings
Earnings Short-term training 83,200
8.26 687,232 Moderate-term training 83,200 11
.32 941,824 Long-term OJT 83,200 12.12
1,008,384 Work Experience 83,200 15.85
1,318,720 Post-sec Vocational
Award 83,200 13.30 1,106,560 Associate
s Degree 83,200 17.72
1,474,304 Bachelors Degree 83,200 19.74
1,642,368 Bachelors Experience 83,200 24
.82 2,065,024 Masters
Degree 83,200 18.51
1,540,032 Doctoral Degree 83,200 19.53
1,624,896 First Professional Degree
83,200 35.61 2,962,752
30
A Changing Texas Labor Market (6)
  • 9. Globalization is changing economic theory,
    business practices and labor supply options
  • 10. Changing demography affects everything from
    education needs, working with diversity, consumer
    tastes, tax structure, retirement

31
Population Pyramids for Anglo and Hispanic
Ethnic Groups in Texas, 2000
Anglo
Hispanic
Male Female
Male Female
32
Educational Attainment Concerns
  • Hispanics are much less likely to complete HS
    (62.8) than Blacks (86.8) or Whites (94)
  • Hispanic drop out rates (28.6) are twice as high
    as Blacks and four time higher than Whites
  • Hispanic and Black 15-17 year olds are more
    likely to be below modal grade
  • Hispanics HS grads are less likely to be enrolled
    in college than Blacks or Whites and much less
    likely to have received a Bachelors degree.

33
A Changing Texas Labor Market (7)
  • 11. A changing industry mix is resulting in
    changing occupational demand and skill sets, with
    an emphasis on lifelong learning.

34
Projected Fastest Growing Occupations BLS
National 2000-2010
  • Fastest Growing
  • Computer Software Engineers Applications
  • Computer Support Specialists
  • Computer Software Engineers Systems
  • Network Administrators
  • Systems Communication Analyst
  • Desktop Publishers
  • Database Administrators
  • Personal Home Care Aides
  • Computer Systems Analysts
  • Medical Assistants
  • Adding Most Jobs
  • Fast food Prep Wrkers
  • Customer Service Reps
  • Registered Nurses
  • Retail Sales Workers
  • Computer Support Specialists
  • Cashiers, ex. Gaming
  • General Office Clerks
  • Security Guards
  • Software Applications Engineers
  • Waiter/Waitress

35
Occupational Growth in Texas Fastest Growing
2000-2010
  • 8. Database Administrators
  • 9. Medical Records Technician
  • 10. Social Services Assistants
  • 11. Special Education Teachers
  • 12. Computer Systems Analysts
  • 13. Medical Assistants
  • 14. Physician Assistants
  • 15. Information Systems Mgrs.
  • 1. Computer Support Specialists
  • 2. Computer Software Engineers, Apps
  • 3. Network Systems Administrators
  • 4. Desktop Publishers
  • 5. Computer Software Engineers, Systems
  • 6. Network Data Communications Analysts
  • 7. Computer Specialist, NEC

36
Occupational Growth in Texas Most Jobs Created
2000-2010
  • 1. Customer Service Representatives
  • 2. Food Prep and Serving Workers, Fast Food
  • 3. Child Care Workers
  • 4. Retail Salespersons
  • 5. Registered Nurses
  • 6. Cashiers
  • 7. Computer Support Specialists
  • 8. Office Clerks, General
  • 9. Waiters Waitresses
  • 10. General and Operations
    Managers
  • 11. Elementary School Teacher
  • 12. Teacher Assistants
  • 13. Secondary School Teacher
  • 14. Janitors and Cleaners
  • 15. Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor
    Trailer

37
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38
CDR Products and Services
39
Texas CARES 2002
40
Texas CARES
Career Alternatives Resource Evaluation
System
CD ROM and Internet Portal combine best of both
worlds
Formal Assessment Tools Interest
Profiler and Work Importance Locator
Occupational Information Covering State and
LWDBs, KSA, Educational Requirements and
Expected Job Outlook
Explore Occupations and Programs By Career
Clusters
Texas Employers With Contact Information,
Mapping
ONET 3.0 Databases with K,S,As
Evaluate Different Programs of Study, Career
Pathways, and Training Requirements-Explore
Occupations to Programs Relationships
Occupational, Texas College and Career
Preparation Videos
Compare Up to 4 Colleges or Occupations Side By
Side
41
Texas Job Hunters Guide
Career Development Resources
42
Succeed at Work
Workforce Magazine
Maintaining a Proper Attitude
Managing Your Career
Career Development Resources
Living a Balanced Life
Starting a New Job
Work Ethics
43
Licensed Occupations and Apprenticeship Program
Contacts in Texas
Career Development Resources
44
Starting the Conversation Parents Guide to
Student Career Development
Career Development Resources
45
Emerging and Evolving Occupations in Texas
Career Development Resources
46
Labor Specialists
NEW!
Essays on Labor Market Topics for
Workforce Planners or Case Workers
Technology Workers In The New Texas Economy
Career Development Resources
Student Follow-up
Biotechnology Impact On Emerging and Evolving
Occupations in Texas
47
Sources for LMI Data
  • 1. SOCRATES Website
  • http//socrates.cdr.state.tx.us
  • 2. TRACER
  • www.twc.state.tx.us/lmi/tracer/tracerhome.htm
  • 3. iOSCAR skills transferability system
  • www.iOSCAR.org
  • 4. Career Development Resources (CDR) Website
  • www.cdr.state.tx.us
  • 5. Career Development Resources (CDR) Hotline
  • 1-800-822-PLAN
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