Radical Islamic Terrorists and The US in the 21st Century

1
Radical Islamic Terrorists and The US in the 21st
Century

• PO 483 The Politics of Terrorism

2
History of Radical Islamic Terrorist Attacks on
the USA

• Real Beginning Takeover of US Embassy in Tehran,
  1979 signal of animosity
• Arab Muslim community
• Bombing of US Marine Barracks in Beirut, October
  1983
• Bombing of Berlin Nightclub, April 1986
• Bombing of Pan Am Flight 103, December 1988
• Truck Bombing of WTC, February 1993
• Attack on Khobar Towers, June 1996
• Car Bombing of US Embassies in Africa, August
  1998
• Bombing of USS Cole, October 2000

3
Patterns Before 9/11/01

• Pan-Arab movement (not confined to one state)
• State Sponsorship common at outset, but declines
• All attacks perpetrated on US soldiers/citizens
  abroad
• Casualties often high, but subject to ceiling
  (about 300)
• American ambivalence in response
• Retribution against governments when state
  sponsorship suspected
• Prosecution
• Haphazard responses (Embassy bombings), no
  responses (USS Cole) common
• Nuisance, not direct threat
• Sense of security (Gulf War)

4
Al-Queda

• Association with Salafis
• Abandonment of true path by Muslim governments
• Reincarnation of Muhammads war to rid Islam of
  idolaters
• US as universal enemy
• Prop for illegitimate rulers
• Poisoning of traditional society (cultural
  imperialism)
• Presence in Saudi Arabia during Gulf War
• Unification of various Salafiyya movements
• Organization Complex (both cell structure and
  evidence of strict hierarchy
• Bin Laden Unifier
• Financial Means
• Fatwas

5
Al-Queda (continued)

• OVERALL GOAL Elicit reversion to traditional
  society by targeting sponsor of and influence
  over governments embodying flawed Islam (US).
  They do not aim for military defeat of the US,
  but for one of two outcomes
• Impose enough costs to get US to reconsider
  Middle East policy (withdraw), thereby destroying
  support for Islamic governments
• Force US to engage in war that alienates the
  majority of the umma, who will then engage in
  terrorist activity to impose enough costs on the
  US to get them to stop the war OR rise up and
  overthrow existing governments

6
9/11/01

• Obviously, most spectacular attacks
• Highly coordinated (planning, acquiring necessary
  skills, dry runs, coordination on day of attack)
• Not all terrorists involved knew it was to be a
  suicide mission
• 4 planes hijacked with box cutters and knives
  crashed into WTC and Pentagon
• Symbolism evident, but inflicting destruction and
  loss of life was the primary motivation
• Establishment of symbiotic relationship with
  other groups claiming Islam as secondary
  motivation

7
The US Response

• Fixing the Immediate Problem Airline Security
• Increase in number of people flying led to
  confusion, lax security, flyer-friendly
  accommodation allowed terrorists to make dry
  runs, get aboard
• No major attack on US planes in 13 years
• Security on Ground
• Military in airports (deterrent, rapid response)
• Security checks/rules changes
• More stringent ID, screening, weapons searches
  for employees
• Passenger screening (security risks)
• Security in Air
• Flight Marshals
• Arming Pilots
• Reinforcement of cockpit doors, changes in rules
  allowing opening of doors and acquiescence to
  hijackers
• Transponder/communications automation
• Panic Button

8
Fundamental Shift in Doctrine Homeland Security

• Extensive existing counterterrorist system
  though full prevention impossible, could be
  improved (augment, not abandon danger of
  instituting ad hoc measures)
• 9/11 considered intelligence failure vague
  warnings, obscured by other information, fear of
  false alarm
• Decline of element of surprise, but terrorists
  are strategic actors and can act to circumvent
  measures
• Takes extremely large investments to marginally
  decrease probability of large attacks

9
Homeland Security

• Suggested Measures
• Lower criteria for entry into CT forces
• More people who speak vernacular dialects of
  Arabic
• Individuals to map out novel attack schemes
  (think outside box)
• Better analysis but, more importantly, more
  efficient distribution and action upon that
  analysis
• Facilitation of extensive clandestine
  surveillance (legal)
• Increase security of borders, major
  industrial/infrastructure sites, track cargo
• Issuance of ID cards, stricter INS implementation
  (legal)
• Sense of Urgency
• No Silver Bullet

10
Legislative Measures

• USA PATRIOT
• Give intelligence/combat functions capacity to
  succeed
• Implementation of constraints (Betts not on
  dissent, but on privacy)
• Immigration
• Department of Homeland Security
• Elimination of red tape
• Reorganization of all facets under one
  directorate (overdue after expansion of
  community)
• Brings FBI, CIA, State, etc. assets together
• Addresses bureaucratic infighting (primacy of
  DoD)
• Problems
• Quick fix?
• Prior Experience
• Benefits of Separation

11
The International Dimension

• Counterterrorist infiltration abroad
• Carrot and Stick to gain support
• Sanctions/Withhold Aid
• Withhold Political Support
• Threat of invasion
• Issue linkage Revising Stances
• Use of force abroad Two main strategies
• Punish/Remove governments harboring terrorists
• More traditional IR response
• Vast extension of traditional retaliatory policy
  (implication)
• Afghanistan Signal to others
• Preemptive removal of threats
• WMD Iraq
• Questions New Doctrine? Al-Quedas goal?