Title: Freight Trends/Issues, Multimodal System Flows and Forecasts, and Policy Implications
1Freight Trends/Issues, Multimodal System Flows
and Forecasts, and Policy Implications
EU/US Forum April 2001 Gary Maring, USDOT
2Objectives
- Highlight emerging freight and logistics
trends/issues - Present first approximation of current US
domestic and international freight flows - Discuss preliminary trade forecasts to 2020
(including US/European trade) and analysis of
potential constraints in the intermodal system - Identify some of the emerging policy issues
toward transportation reauthorization in 2002-2003
3Freight Trends and Issues
- Markets/Logistics (demand)
- From national markets to global markets
- From a manufacturing to a service economy
- Carriers/Transportation Systems (supply)
- From modal fragmentation to cross-modal
coordination - From system construction to system optimization
- Public Policy
- From economic deregulation to safety regulation
- From modal to multi-modal surface transportation
policy - Increased environmental accountability
4Implications of Changing Demand for
Transportation Services
- Increasing demand for reliable, flexible,
cost-effective, timely, and visible door-to-door
freight services - Lower inventory levels and less slack production
capacity, creates greater dependence on
transportation services - Simultaneous increase in robustness and fragility
of logistics and transportation systems - Increasing freight traffic and congestion along
trade corridors, metropolitan areas particularly
in/around terminals, and border crossings.
5National Highway System Intermodal Connectors -
Infrastructure Constraints
- NHS Connectors
- Poor physical condition
- Poor geometrics
- orphan status
- inadequate coordination of investment strategies
6Public Policy Implications for Freight
- Diminishing productivity returns from
deregulation - Pressure for improved safety
- More complex planning and investment environment
evolving public/private partnerships - Use of highway trust funds for non-highway
freight projects - Increased local community and environmental
concerns - New multi-juristictional institutional
arrangements may be needed - Greater reliance upon technology for monitoring
cargo/fleets and for system management
7Freight Transportation PerspectivesState and MPO
focus is regional and local private sector focus
is increasingly national and global
Private Sector(Shippers, Carriers)
Global
National
Regional
Local
Public Sector(States, MPOs)
8 Multimodal Freight Data and Policy Analysis
Framework
- Approximation of current national flows by mode,
including domestic leg of international moves - Economic trade forecasts to 2020 (domestic and
international) and estimated modal components - Assessment of capacity and investment
implications - Policy development tool for future legislation
9First Approximation of U.S. Freight Flows
- 1998 Annual Volumes
- County-level flows
- International and domestic flows
- STCC commodity groupings
- Modal components (truck, rail, air, water)
- Sources (Bureau of Transportation Statistics,
Rail Waybill, PIERS, Reebie Transearch Database,
Army Corps of Engr., other private data sources)
10Total Domestic Freight Tons and ValueFreight
traffic moving into, out of, and within the U.S.
totaled 9.8 billion tons and 9.1 trillion in
1998- 1st approximation
11Truck Freight Flows, All CommoditiesAll truck
types highway freight density in tons
12Truck Freight Flows, High-Service
CommoditiesHigh-value and time-sensitive
products, highway freight density in tons
13Rail Freight Flows, All CommoditiesRail freight
density in tons
14Rail Intermodal Flows, All CommoditiesRail
freight density in tons
15Inland Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities
Waterway freight density in tons
16Air-Freight Origins and DestinationsAll
commodities, domestic airport-to-airport traffic,
in tons
Origins
Destinations
17Top Gateways for International Freight Exports
and imports in tons
18Port Example- Charleston
19Highway Flows of International Freight Moving
into and From the Port of Charleston
20Railway Flows of International Freight Moving
into and From the Port of Charleston
21Analyze Economic Trade Forecasts and System
Implications
- WEFA provided economic forecasts of
International, National, and Regional Activity - Assigned 2010 and 2020 modal freight flows
- Conduct systems analysis (e.g. capacity,
investment implications) during coming year - Support policy analysis toward reauthorization
- Case Studies with regional coalitions and
industry to improve understanding of transport
system implications
22WEFA Economic Assumptions
- Assumes that level of economic output will
approach potential GDP, the level of output that
could be achieved if resources were fully
utilized - Assumes no exogenous shocks
- The long range outlook relies on supply factors
such as population growth, labor force, captial
stock, productivity growth, fiscal policy,
foreign developments, etc. - A base trend forecast assumption was produced
also a high and low assumption
23Freight Forecast Growth Rates-Trend
- US Domestic
- 1998-2020 2.9 (Cumulative 87)
- 1998-2010 3.4
- 2010-2020 2.4
- US International
- 1998-2020 3.4 (Cumulative 107)
- 1998-2010 4.0
- 2010-2020 2.9
- International Sectors
- US/Canada 1998-2020 3.1
- US/Mexico 1998-2020 3.5
- US/Europe 1998-2020 3.1 (US export 2.7, US
import 3.4) - US/ROW 1998-2020 3.4
24Growth by Region US Inter Intra-Regional
Tonnage by 2020
25Modal Growth Rates to 2010
Higher
Lower
Compound Annual Growth, 1998 to 2010, US Tons
26Modal Share of Growth to 2020US Traffic,
Constant Dollar Value Basis
Distribution of Tonnage by Major Mode
Distribution of Value by Major Mode
27Modal Share of Growth to 2020US Traffic, Ton
Mile Basis
Distribution of Ton Miles by Major Mode (Miles
County to County Highway)
28Commodity Share of Growth to 2020US Tonnage
29Truck Traffic Growth on Highways, 2020 Density of
Incremental US Truck Tons
30(No Transcript)
31Highways 2020 Focus of GrowthRate of US Truck
Growth on Top Tonnage Links
32NAFTA--US/Canada Truck Traffic on US Highway
Network, 2020 (Tons)
33NAFTA--US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway
Network, 2020 (Tons)
34Overseas Inland Trade Growth by Sector and Mode
35Overseas Inland Trade Truck Trafficon U.S.
Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)
36Inland Truck Flows - 2020 US-European
TradeNetwork Freight Density for All
Commodities, in Tons
372020 US-European Trade by CommodityUS Imports
versus Exports, Tonnage Basis
382020 US-European Trade by StateAll Commodities,
Tonnage Basis
Low 3rd
Origins (Export)
Middle 3rd
Destinations (Import)
High 3rd
39Next Steps--Capacity and Investment Analysis
- Assign future freight flows to modal networks
- Conduct highway system capacity analysis to
understand the nature of emerging constraints,
e.g. nodes, corridors, gateways, metropolitan
congestion - Develop illustrative multimodal case studies in
selected regions of the country e.g. Alameda,
Chicago rail and intermodal access, Mid Atlantic
rail, SE States Latin American Trade Study - Conduct what-if analyses e.g. intermodal,
coastal shipping - Assess future investment requirements for
Biennial Report to Congress
40Conduct regional case studies, e.g. Southeastern
States analysis of Latin American trade
implications
41The Policy Challenge
- Both passenger and freight demand upon the
nations infrastructure will increase
significantly - Freight volumes will nearly double to 2020 with
higher growth in some corridors and nodes - Current planning and financing methods do not
adequately address freights unique concerns - Intermodal linkages not seamless inefficient
operational practices - Increased focus on safety and environmental
issues - Economic competiveness issues
42U.S. National Outreach/Policy analysis
- Share freight analysis findings, forecasts, and
system impacts with stakeholders and assess
policy implications - Hold a series of outreach forums on multimodal
freight finance, planning and environment,
operations safety to assess current practice
and formulate future policy options - Develop a Freight Story and conduct national
freight summit Dec. 2001 to lay groundwork for
policy initiatives - Report to Congress on system condition,
performance, and future investment requirements
in 2002 - Develop surface, marine, air transportation
reauthorization legislative strategies in 2002
that fully reflect the needs of freight and
passenger considerations
43Freight National Policy Development and Outreach
Workplan - 2001
44Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization-
Freight elements?
Efficiency
Equity
Effectiveness
1991 - 97
1998 - 03
2004 - ??
45FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations,
USDOT
- www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight
- Gary Maring
- gary.maring_at_fhwa.dot.gov