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Some Market Trends, Indicators And Signals

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Some Market Trends, Indicators And Signals FastTrack User Group Meeting Jul 1, 2013 Close Gordon Harms NASDAQ Cycles: Long cycles not coincident with price low 6/24/13. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Some Market Trends, Indicators And Signals


1
Some Market Trends, Indicators And Signals
  • FastTrack User Group Meeting
  • Jul 1, 2013 Close
  • Gordon Harms

2
DJIA Industrials Transports confirm
rise.Recession Dec 2007 to June 2009. Next
Presidential cycle low due 2014.
3
NASDAQ 2 and 4 year cycle lows.Next 4 year low
expected mid 2014.
4
NASDAQ 9 month cycle is now a 7.3 month
cycle.Next low expected Jul, 2014 or 1 month
or so.
5
Gold Vs Dollar Gold down and Dollar up from
9/6/11.
6
Gold Metal Price down from 9/6/11.
7
Gold XAU-I Down from 9/21/12.
8
M2 Money SupplyRate of Change above mid-channel
black line is favorable.
9
Inflation and Deflation Rates of Change 3 Mo.
Sma of Yr/Yr change and the current Yr/Yr
change.
  • CPI, May 1.30, down from 1.50
  • PPI, May 0.30, down from 0.36
  • CPI Yr/Yr May, 1.36 up from 1.06
  • PPI Yr/Yr May, 1.14 up from -0.15
  • Average long term CPI Rate of Change is 2.5
  • Fed Reserve Inflation Rate of Change Goal is
    2.0.

10
Index Performance Returns YR/YR
11
Bond Families Averages Returns YR/YR
  • Last Month
  • This month

12
U. S. Gov. 1 Year Bonds Interest Rates Up from
0.08 low 9/19/11 to 0.15.
13
High Yield Bonds Avg One Yr. Ann 8.44.
14
Short Term Bond Avg One Yr. Ann 2.14.
15
Corporate Bonds Avg One Yr. Ann 1.06.
16
U.S. Government Bonds Avg One Yr. Ann 2.64.
17
Interest Rates U. S. Gov. Bonds From
1988Interest Rates above 12/17/08 recession lows.
18
Interest Rates U. S. Gov. Bonds From 2002
Interest Rates above 12/17/08 recession lows.
19
Interest Rate Spread Increasing from mid 2012.
20
Sector Averages Performance Returns YR/YR
  • Last Month
  • This Month

21
Commodity Research Bureau IndexBack down close
to 6/1/12 low down from 4/21/11 All Time High.
22
Emerging Markets Avg Down 9.49 from 5/8/13 high.
23
Energy Avg One Yr. Ann 11.18.
24
Fidelity Select Funds Percent funds down with
price.
25
SP500 INDEX 5/21/13 price not confirmed by RSI.
26
SP500 BSCOM down in buy area.
27
SP500 Weekly Indicators turned down with price.
28
SP500 VXO-X High volatility at price low
6/24/13.
29
NYSE NHNL Low price indicators pattern 6/24/13.
30
NYSE Breadth Low price indicators pattern
6/24/13.
31
NASDAQ NHNL Low price indicators pattern at
6/24/13.
32
NASDAQ Breadth Low price indicators pattern at
6/24/13 low.
33
NASDAQ Index 5/21/13 price unconfirmed.
34
NASDAQ Cycles Long cycles not coincident with
price low 6/24/13.
35
NASDAQ Weekly Indicators moving with price.
36
NASDAQ Monthly Price 6/3/13 not confirmed.
37
NASDAQ VXN-X High volatility indicating price
low.
38
Russell 2000 5/2/13 price not confirmed.
39
Russell Cycles Long cycles not confirming price
low.
40
RUT-I Weekly Indicators and price
moving together.
41
Russell Monthly 6/3/13 price not confirmed.
42
Bond Fund Averages Trends
  • Long Term Monthly Trend Favorable
  • U S Gov Bonds trending up from 1988 with lowest
    interest rates over the last 23 plus years.
  • Bond fund averages remain in long term up trends.
  • Weekly and Daily Trends Unfavorable
  • Down trends from early May.

43
NASDAQ Indicators
  • Price Motion Indicators - From mid April
  • Price Oscillator Moving with price.
  • RSI Moving with price.
  • MACD Moving with price.
  • OUTLOOK Index down trend from 5/21/13 continues.
  • Breadth Indicators -
  • NHNL Not confirming from early April.
  • AD Moving with price.
  • UDV Moving with price.
  • OUTLOOK Index down trend from 5/21/13 continues.
  • NHNL is New Highs and New Lows AD is Advances
    and Declines UDV is Up and Down Volume

44
Market Index Price Trends
  • Monthly Trend Unfavorable
  • NASDAQ down from 6/3/13 high.
  • Russell 2000 flat from 5/31/13 high.
  • Weekly Trend Unfavorable
  • NASDAQ is down from 5/17/13 high.
  • Russell 2000 is down from 5/17/13 high.
  • Daily Trend Favorable
  • SP500 , NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are up from
    6/24/13 low with coincident indicators.

45
Investing Environment
  • Favorable
  • Interest Rate yield curve is positive.
  • World Wide Business recovering slowly. China and
    Europe slowing.
  • Economic Recovery in U. S. just slowly starting.
  • Commodity Prices trending down from 4/21/11 high.
  • Unfavorable
  • Financial Government legislative policy
    uncertain.
  • Monetary Liquidity, Rate of Change of M2 Money
    Supply.
  • Yearly Seasonality June through Sept.

46
Idealized Economic Cycle
  • Economic recovery has started from recession very
    slowly due to increasing high government debt and
    uncertainty in government financial policies.
  • Stocks(SP500) are at new high from 3/9/09
    recession low.
  • Commodities are up from recession low but are
    down from 4/21/11 all time high.
  • Interest rates on Government Bonds are down from
    12/17/08 recession low.

47
Idealized Economic Cycle Economy is in 3.Stocks
in 3 from 3/9/09. Commodities in 3 from
recession low.Interest rates in 2, 3 below
12/17/08 recession low.
48
Cycle of Market Emotions From Hays
AdvisoryEconomy between Relief and Optimism ???
49
Something to Think About
  • All sciences are now under the obligation
  • to prepare the ground
  • for the future task of the philosopher,
  • which is to solve the problem of value,
  • (that is) to determine
  • the true hierarchy of values.
  • Friedrich Nietzsche
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