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The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates

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The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates By: Gregory P. Hickman, Ph.D. Mitchell Bartholomew Jennifer Mathwig Randy Heinrich, Ph.D. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Differential Trajectories of High School Dropouts and Graduates


1
The Differential Trajectories of High School
Dropouts and Graduates
By Gregory P. Hickman, Ph.D. Mitchell
Bartholomew Jennifer Mathwig Randy Heinrich,
Ph.D. The Rodel Community Scholars Arizona
State University at the West Campus
2
Research Questions
  • Are there differences in the developmental
    trajectories of high school
  • graduates compared to high school dropouts?
  • If so, where do these differences occur
    developmentally in time and
  • across which variables?
  • If differences do exist developmentally in
    time and across variables
  • which variables exhibit the greatest
    differences between high school
  • graduates and dropouts?
  • Of the variables that exhibit the greatest
    differences between high
  • school graduates and dropouts which of
    these variables accounts for
  • the most variance for dropping out of high
    school?
  • Do high school graduates and dropouts
    academically perform in the
  • classroom with equal rigor parallel to
    standardized testing?

3
Method of Study
  • Obtained familial, disciplinary, and educational
    data
  • All data were from student K-12 files
  • Partnered with County Juvenile Probation Office
    for official data
  • Sampled 4 cohorts (2002-2005)
  • Randomly selected 60 graduates and 60 dropouts
    from 4 cohorts
  • n119 (one student was disqualified from study
    no data)
  • n represents approximately 25 of total
    population of 4 cohorts
  • Examined the longitudinal developmental
    trajectory of both
  • graduates and dropouts across time and all
    variables of study.
  • Independent t-tests examined mean differences
    between groups
  • Regression Analysis examined the predictive
    nature of variables
  • between high school dropouts and graduates

4
Family Demographics
0Married, Female, Born in AZ, and
Caucasian 1Divorced, Male, Not born in AZ, and
all other ethnic backgrounds
5
Family Demographics
6
Vocational Courses
0Yes, 1No
7
Non-Core Courses 1st 2nd Semester 9th Grade
8
Retained K-8?
0Yes, 1No
9
Absenteeism K-8
10
Total Absence Days K-8
11
Qualitative Reading
Grades K-2
0Satisfactory, 1Needs Improvement,
2Unsatisfactory
12
Quantitative Reading Grades 1-8
13
Qualitative Spelling Grades K-2
0Satisfactory, 1Needs Improvement,
2Unsatisfactory
14
Quantitative Spelling Grades 1-5
15
Qualitative English Grades K-2
0Satisfactory, 1Needs Improvement,
2Unsatisfactory
16
Quantitative English Grades 1-8
17
Qualitative Writing Grades K-2
0Satisfactory, 1Needs Improvement,
2Unsatisfactory
18
Quantitative Writing Grades 1-5
19
Qualitative Math Grades K-2
0Satisfactory, 1Needs Improvement,
2Unsatisfactory
20
Quantitative Math Grades 1-8
21
Qualitative Social Studies Grades K-2
Graduates Dropouts all performed at
Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2nd Grade
22
Quantitative Social Studies Grades 2-8
23
Qualitative Science Grades K-2
Graduates Dropouts all performed at
Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2nd Grade
24
Quantitative Science Grades 2-8
25
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Reading Scores
26
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Math Scores
27
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Language Scores
28
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Vocabulary Scores
29
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Read Comp/Critical
Analysis Scores
30
Stanford Grades 5-8 NCE Problem Solving Strategies
31
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Mechanics/Usage of
Language
0Below Average, 1Average, 2Above Average
32
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Interpretation of
Reading/Language
0Below Average, 1Average, 2Above Average
33
Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Reading
Grades 1-6
34
Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Math Grades
2-6
35
Grade Point Average Grades 9-12
36
Grade Level Dropped Out of High School?
High School Dropouts exited school at grade
level 10.43
37
High School English 1-4 Grades
38
Other High School English Data
Grade in Highest English Course Taken
Highest English Course Taken
39
Other High School Math Data
0Pre-Algebra, 1Algebra 1, 2Geometry, 3Algebra
2, 4Trigonometry, 5Calculus
40
Grade in Highest High School Math Course Taken?
41
Personal Data
0No, 1Yes
42
Personal Data
0No, 1Yes
43
Did the Student Have Discipline Issues?
0No, 1Yes
44
Grade First Identified as Discipline Problem?
45
Was Student Placed in Diversion Programs,
Standard Probation, or Intense Probation?
0No, 1Yes
46
First Statistically Significant Differences
Between High School Graduates Dropouts
Absenteeism Kindergarten Reading
Kindergarten Spelling 2nd Grade English 2nd
Grade Writing Kindergarten Math
Kindergarten Social Studies 3rd Grade Science
4th Grade Stanford 6 All strands of test Iowa
Basic Skills Test 3rd Grade Reading Math All
High School variables from 9th grade 1st semester
47
10 Largest Statistical Differences Between
Graduates Dropouts
  • Did they take a foreign language?
  • GPA 9th Grade 1st Semester
  • Did they have discipline issues?
  • 7th Grade Reading grade
  • 8th Grade English grade
  • 8th Grade Absenteeism
  • 7th Grade Math grade
  • Total Non-Core classes taken in 9th Grade
  • Did they participate in extra curricular
    activities?
  • Were they retained?

48
Which Top 10 Variables Have Most Predictive Power?
  • Foreign Language
  • English 8th Grade
  • Absenteeism 8th Grade
  • Total Non-Core Classes 9th Grade Year
  • Extra Curricular Activities
  • These 5 variables account for 78 of the variance
    of high school
  • dropouts

49
Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing
Subject Dropouts Graduates Iowa 1st Grade
Reading -.27 .09 1st Grade Reading
Grade -.80 .33 Iowa 6th Grade
Reading -.55 .20 6th Grade Reading
Grade -.63 .36
Standardized Values
Dropouts perform significantly lower in the
classroom compared to their standardized testing
ability in 1st grade reading. Whereas, graduates
perform significantly higher in the classroom
compared to their standardized testing ability.
The same holds true for dropouts in 6th grade,
however the margin is not significant. Finally,
while dropouts make slight improvements in their
classroom grades they decrease significantly in
their standardized testing over time.
50
Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing
Subject Dropouts Graduates Stanford 5th Grade
Math -.28 .24 5th Grade Math Grade -.35 .19 Sta
nford 8th Grade Math -.57 .29 8th Grade Math
Grade -.73 .30
Standardized Values
Dropouts perform slightly lower in the classroom
compared to their standardized testing ability in
5th grade math. Whereas, graduates perform
slightly higher in the classroom compared to
their standardized testing ability. As time
progresses graduates achieve with equal rigor on
standardized testing and in the classroom,
whereas dropouts significantly achieve less in
the classroom overtime compared to their
standardized testing ability. Not only do
dropouts decrease in their classroom and
standardized performances over time, but the gap
in classroom performance becomes further behind
their standardized testing ability.
51
Key Findings of Study
  • Academic differences between high school
    dropouts and graduates seem to surface well
    before students enter high school. In fact,
    according to these results, differences between
    the two groups are profound even in Kindergarten.
  • While the two groups appear to start out with
    measurable differences, academic differences seem
    to diverge even more in middle school grades
  • The differences between the two groups seem to
    be most apparent in
  • Attendance and absenteeism in middle school
  • Standardized testing
  • Discipline records (probation and diversion)
  • Aspects of family life such as presence of
    siblings and parents marital status
  • Student characteristics such as ELL and SPED
    status, SES and mobility
  • High school course choices (registering for core
    vs. non core classes)
  • Measurable gaps in GPA across all grades (K-12)

52
Take 5
  • Pre-Kindergarten
  • Middle School
  • Attendance
  • Class choices 9th grade year
  • Student/Family Demographics

53
Conclusion
The analysis of this study provided a better
understanding of the long-term impacts of early
childhood educational progress on high school
retention. By doing so, germane areas of success
and failure throughout a students academic tenure
were identified, informing educators about
appropriate implementation strategies for
education programs and interventions that could
increase the likelihood of high school graduation.
54
Thank You!
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