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Climate Control and Ozone Depletion

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Title: Climate Control and Ozone Depletion


1
Climate Control and Ozone Depletion
  • Chapter 19

2
19-1
  • CIVILIZATION HAS EVOLVED DURING A PERIOD OF
    REMARKABLE CLIMATE STABILITY, BUT THIS ERA IS
    DRAWING TO A CLOSE. WE ARE ENTERING A NEW ERA, A
    PERIOD OF RAPID AND OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE CLIMATE
    CHANGE. THE NEW CLIMATE NORM IS CHANGE.
  • LESTER R. BROWN

3
Global Warming and Global Cooling Are Not New
  • Over the past 4.5 billion years the climate has
    been altered by
  • Volcanic emissions
  • Changes in solar input
  • Movement of the continents
  • Impacts by meteors
  • Over the past 900,000 years
  • Global Cooling and Global Warming
  • Glacial and interglacial (between ice ages)
    periods
  • Over the past 10,000 years
  • Interglacial period-- stable climate and avg.
    Global surface temp
  • Allowed agriculture and cities to flourish
  • Over the past 1,000 years
  • Temperature stable until we clear cut forests and
    burn fossil fuels
  • Over the past 100 years
  • Temperature changes

4
Estimated Changes in the Average Global
Temperature of the Atmosphere
5
Our Climate, Lives, and Economies Depend on the
Natural Greenhouse Effect
  • Solar energy and the greenhouse effect warm the
    earths lower atmosphere and surface
  • Without the natural greenhouse effect
  • Cold, uninhabitable earth
  • 1 of lower atmosphere is made of greenhouse
    gases (water vapor, CO2, CH4, and N2O)
  • 1896 Arrhenius first recognized greenhouse effect

Ice Cores Are Extracted by Drilling Deep Holes in
Ancient Glaciers
6
Human Activities Emit Large Quantities of
Greenhouses Gases
  • Since the Industrial Revolution (275 years ago)
  • CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions higher
  • Main sources agriculture, deforestation, and
    burning of fossil fuels
  • Correlation of rising CO2 and CH4 with rising
    global temperatures
  • CO2 has risen from 280 ppm to 384 ppm

7
GREENHOUSE GASES
  • CARBON DIOXIDE
  • METHANE
  • NITROUS OXIDE (N2O)
  • CFCs
  • WATER VAPOR

8
Greenhouse Gases
  • CO2 most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG) Sources
    burning fossil fuels, deforestation
  • Ice cores have shown that CO2 increasing in
    atmosphere 35 higher than pre-Industrial Rev.
  • Natural cycling of CO2 levels
  • Seasonal shift in CO2 production high fall low
    spring
  • Ocean acts as sink, absorbing large amounts.
  • Vegetation acts as a sink (until it dies or is
    cut down)
  • Stays in the atmosphere 50- 200

9
Other Greenhouse Gases
  • Methane (CH4) 21 times more warming effect than
    CO2 and increasing at 8 times the rate.
    Atmospheric lifetime 12 years
  • Methane production is faster than what is being
    broken down
  • Main sources are wetlands, rice fields, fossil
    fuels, livestock

10
Greenhouse Gases
  • Nitrous oxides slow to breakdown
  • Atmospheric lifetime 120 years
  • Provides 310 times more warming than CO2
  • Sources are fossil fuels, fertilizers,
    deforestation
  • CFCs absorb 10,000 X more infrared than CO2
  • Atmospheric lifetime 100
  • Sources are foams, aerosols,
    refrigerants,
    solvents
  • Water vapor Warmed by CO2,
    the atmosphere is
    thus able to
  • absorb more water vapor. And
  • that water vapor, in turn, causes
  • further warmingit amplifies the
  • effects of carbon dioxide.

11
Human Activities
  • Countries with the largest CO2 emissions
  • Per capita emissions of CO2
  • Scientific and economic
  • studies
  • 2007 Field and Marland
  • CO2 will rise 3.3 a year
  • Tipping point
  • 2008 Aufhammer and Carson
  • Chinas CO2 emission growth may be underestimated
  • Ice core analysis of air pollutants
  • 60 of CH4 emission are a result of humans

12
Atmospheric Levels of CO2 and CH4, Global
Temperatures, and Sea Levels
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Temp.
Sea Level
13
The Atmosphere Is Warming Mostly Because of Human
Activities
  • 1988-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    (IPCC)
  • 9099 likely that lower atmosphere is warming
  • 19062005 Ave. temp increased about 0.74C
    (1.3F)
  • 19702005 Annual greenhouse emissions up 70
  • Past 50 years Arctic temp rising almost twice as
    fast as the rest of the earth
  • Melting of glaciers and floating sea ice
  • Prolonged droughts increasing
  • Last 100 years sea levels rose 1020 cm
  • 2007-Al Gore and the IPCC Nobel Peace Prize
  • the earth has a fever. And the fever is rising
    We are what is wrong, and we must make it right
  • What natural and human-influenced factors could
    have an effect on temperature changes?
  • Amplify (give positive feedback)
  • Dampen (give negative feedback to)

14
Simplified Model of Some Major Processes That
Interact to Determine Climate
15
Melting of Alaskas Muir Glacier between 1948
and 2004
16
Comparison of Measured Temperature from 18602007
and Projected Changes
17
Is a Hotter Sun the Culprit?
  • Energy output from the sun affects the earths
    temperature.
  • Since 1975
  • Lower atmosphere (Troposphere) has warmed
  • Stratosphere has cooled
  • This is not what a hotter sun would do!!
  • Atmosphere is heating from the bottom upthis
    indicates inputs at earths surface (from human
    activities) are the main cause.

18
Can the Oceans Save Us?
  • Solubility of CO2 in ocean water
  • But, solubility of gases decreases as temp. of
    water increase
  • Help moderate temperature-remove 25-30 CO2
  • Warmer oceans
  • CO2 levels increasing acidity
  • Effect on atmospheric levels of CO2
  • Effect on coral reefs - ability of to make
    shells, could dissolve shells
  • Antarcticas Southern Ocean (largest CO2 sink
    and the North Atlantic Ocean
  • Decrease in CO2 uptake
  • Significance on global CO2 levels
  • Temperature, acidity, and the ability to absorb
    CO2 from atmosphere are changing due to humans.
    This can accelerate global warming.

19
Uncertainty about the Effects of Cloud Cover on
Global Warming
  • Warmer temperatures increase evaporation and
    create more clouds
  • Thick, light-colored low altitude clouds
    decrease surface temperature
  • Thin, cirrus clouds at high altitudes increase
    surface temperature
  • Effect of jet contrails on climate temperature
    trails expand and turn into large cirrus clouds
    that release heat into the upper troposphere

20
Outdoor Air Pollution Can Temporarily Slow Global
Warming
  • Aerosols (suspended microscopic droplets of solid
    particles) and soot pollutants
  • Most light-colored sulfate particles produced by
    fossil fuel combustion tend to reflect incoming
    light- also serve as condensation nuclei and form
    clouds (more cooling)
  • BUT black carbon particulate matter emitted by
    diesel exhaust, burning forest and cooking fuels
    warms the atmosphere more than estimated

21
Scientists do not expect aerosols or soot
pollutants to enhance or counteract projected
global warming 1. Fall back to the earth or are
washed out of the lower atmosphere within weeks,
where as CO2 remains in the atmosphere for as
long as 120 years! 2. Reduction especially in
developed countries Hmmm.. The decrease in some
aerosols concentrations increase global warming!
22
Enhanced Global Warming Could Have Severe
Consequences
  • Why worry about it? How much and how fast
  • Tipping point and irreversible climate change
  • Worst-case scenarios
  • Ecosystems collapsing
  • Low-lying cities flooded
  • Wildfires in forests
  • Prolonged droughts grasslands become dust bowls
  • More destructive storms
  • Glaciers shrinking rivers drying up

23
Projected Effects of Global Warming and the
Resulting Changes in Global Climate
24
19-2 Severe Drought Is Increasing The Browning
of the Earth
  • Droughtevaporation exceeds precipitation
  • Accelerate global warming, lead to more drought
  • Biodiversity will decrease
  • NPP will decrease
  • Dry climate ecosystems will increase
  • Positive feedback-accelerate global warming and
    climate change more drought

25
Ice and Snow Are Melting
  • Why will global warming be worse in the polar
    regions?
  • Light colored ice and snowreflect solar
    energy-cool earth
  • Melting exposed dark landabsorb more solar
    energypolar are heat up
  • Important climate role of floating sea
    ice-precipitation
  • Mountain glaciers affected by
  • Average snowfall
  • Average warm temperatures
  • Europes Alps
  • Glaciers are disappearing
  • South America
  • Glaciers are disappearing
  • Greenland
  • Warmer temperatures

26
Sea Levels Are Rising
  • 2007 IPPC-sea level will rise 18-59 cm this
    century
  • Expansion of warm water
  • Melting of land-based ice
  • What about Greenland? 1-2 meters from 2050-2010
  • Projected irreversible effect
  • Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries,
    wetlands, and coral reefs
  • Disruption of coastal fisheries
  • Flooding of
  • Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areas
  • Agricultural lowlands and deltas
  • Contamination of freshwater aquifers
  • Submergence of low-lying islands in the Pacific
    and Indian Oceans and the Caribbean

27
Areas of Florida to Flood If Average Sea Level
Rises by One Meter
28
Permafrost Is Likely to Melt Another Dangerous
Scenario
  • Carbon present as CH4 in permafrost soils and
    lake bottoms
  • 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
  • 1020 of the permafrost might melt this century
  • Effect on
  • global
  • warming

29
Ocean Currents Are Changing but the Threat Is
Unknown
  • Melting glaciers, particularly in Greenland
  • Increased rain in the North Atlantic
  • Not thought to be an immediate problem on the
    ocean currents

30
Extreme Weather Will Increase in Some Areas
  • Heat waves and droughts in some areas
  • Prolonged rains and flooding in other areas
  • Will storms get worse?
  • More studies needed
  • Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

31
Global Warming Is a Major Threat to Biodiversity
  • Most susceptible ecosystems
  • Coral reefs
  • Polar seas
  • Coastal wetland
  • High-elevation mountaintops
  • Alpine and arctic tundra
  • What about
  • Migratory animals
  • Forests
  • Which organisms could increase with global
    warming? Significance?
  • Insects
  • Fungi
  • Microbes

32
Climate Change Will Shift Areas Where Crops Can
Be Grown
  • Regions of farming may shift
  • Decrease in tropical and subtropical areas
  • Increase in northern latitudes
  • Less productivity soil not as fertile
  • Genetically engineered crops more tolerant to
    drought

33
Climate Change Will Threaten the Health of Many
People
  • Deaths from heat waves will increase
  • Deaths from cold weather will decrease
  • Higher temperatures can cause
  • Increased flooding
  • Increase in some forms of air pollution, more O3
  • More insects, microbes, toxic molds, and fungi

34
19-3 Dealing with Climate Change Is Difficult
  • Global problem
  • Long-lasting effects
  • Long-term political problem
  • Harmful and beneficial impacts of climate change
    unevenly spread
  • Many proposed actions disrupt economies and
    lifestyles

35
What Are Our Options?
  • Two approaches
  • Drastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gas
    emissions
  • Devise strategies to reduce the harmful effects
    of global warming
  • Will we reach a political tipping point before we
    reach irreversible climate change tipping points?

36
Avoiding Catastrophe We Can Reduce the Threat of
Climate Change
  • Input or prevention strategies
  • Improve energy efficiency to reduce fossil fuel
    use
  • Stop cutting down tropical forests
  • Output strategy
  • Capture and store CO2
  • Socolow and Pacala
  • Climate stabilization wedges
  • Keep CO2 emissions to 2007 levels by 2057
  • Brown need to do more
  • Cut CO2 emissions by 80 by 2020
  • 2008 book Plan B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save
    Civilization

37
  • Output solutions
  • Massive global tree planting how many?
  • Wangari Maathai
  • Great Wall of Trees China and Africa
  • Plant fast-growing perennials on degraded land
  • Capturing and storing CO2

38
Fifteen Ways to Cut CO2 Emissions
39
Some Output Methods for Removing CO2 from the
Atmosphere and Storing It
40
Should We Use Geo-Engineering Schemes to Help
Slow Climate Change?
  • CCS-Carbon capture and storage
  • Injection of sulfate particles into the
    stratosphere
  • Would it have a cooling effect?
  • Would it accelerate O3 depletion?
  • Remove HCl from seawater
  • Effects on ecology?
  • Pump up nutrient-rich deep ocean water and cause
    algal blooms
  • Re-ice the Arctic
  • If any of these fixes fail, what about a rebound
    effect?

41
How Much Will It Cost to Slow Climate Change?
  • Short-term costs lower
  • Local and global economies may be boosted

42
Governments Can Help Reduce the Threat of Climate
Change
  • Strictly regulate CO2 and CH4 as pollutants
  • Cap-and-trade approach
  • Increase subsidies to encourage use of
    energy-efficient technology
  • Technology transfer

43
We Can Move Beyond the Kyoto Protocol
  • 2004 Stewart and Wiener
  • New treaty needed
  • Should be led by the U.S.
  • Include the developing countries
  • Cap-and-trade emissions program
  • Set up 10 year goals

44
Some Governments Are Leading the Way
  • Costa Rica goal to be carbon neutral by 2030
  • Norway aims to be carbon neutral by 2050
  • China and India must change energy habits
  • U.S. cities and states taking initiatives to
    reduce carbon emissions

45
Some Companies and Schools Are Reducing Their
Carbon Footprints
  • Major global companies reducing greenhouse gas
    emissions
  • Alcoa
  • DuPont
  • IBM
  • Toyota
  • GE
  • Wal-Mart
  • Fluorescent light bulbs
  • Auxiliary power units on truck fleets
  • Colleges and universities reducing greenhouse gas
    emissions
  • Oberlin College, Ohio, U.S.
  • 25 Colleges in Pennsylvania, U.S.
  • Yale University, CT, U.S.
  • What can you do?

46
We Can Prepare for the Harmful Effects of Climate
Change
  • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as
    possible
  • Move people from low-lying coastal areas
  • Limit coastal building
  • Remove hazardous material storage tanks away from
    the coast
  • Genetically engineer crops more tolerant to
    drought
  • Stockpile 15 years of key foods
  • Waste less water
  • Connect wildlife reserves with corridors

47
Our Use of Certain Chemicals Threatens the Ozone
Layer
  • Ozone Thinning
  • Seasonal depletion in the stratosphere
  • Antarctica and Arctic
  • 1930 Midgely
  • Discovered the first CFC
  • 1984 Rowland and Molina
  • CFCs were depleting O3
  • Other ozone-depleting chemicals

Global Average Total Ozone Values in the
Stratosphere from 19792005
48
Why Should We Worry about Ozone Depletion?
  • Damaging UV-A and UV-B radiation
  • Increase eye cataracts and skin cancer
  • Impair or destroy phytoplankton
  • Significance?

49
We Can Reverse Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
  • Stop producing all ozone-depleting chemicals
  • 60100 years of recovery of the O3 layer
  • 1987 Montreal Protocol
  • 1992 Copenhagen Protocol
  • Ozone protocols prevention is the key
  • Substitutes for CFCs are available
  • More are being developed
  • HCFC-22
  • Substitute chemical
  • May still be causing ozone depletion

50
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