Mosaic International Summer School An overview of key Global Trends

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Mosaic International Summer SchoolAn
overview of key Global Trends

• Will Day
• Clare College, Cambridge
• July 20th 2009

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• Prediction is very difficult,
• especially about the future.
• Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962)

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World overshoot day September 23rd 2008
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UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Scarce resources
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WATER WITHDRAWAL AS - 2001
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Worsening per capita water availability
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• 14 April 2009
• Murray too low to meet basic needs
• The Murray River does not have enough water to
  secure critical human needs for 2009-10, with the
  situation likely to worsen amid forecasts of a
  dry winter.

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• Thursday, April 16, 2009
• Cities are running out of water, says expert
• DEVELOPED CITIES and regions around the world are
  beginning to run out of water in advance of the
  effects of climate change, a seminar in Dublin
  was told yesterday.
• The Institute of International and European
  Affairs was told that increasing drought was no
  longer an image associated with third world
  charity, but now affected cities and regions
  such as San Francisco, Mexico, Raleigh North
  Carolina, and Atlanta, Georgia among others in
  North America, as well as Barcelona in Spain,
  parts of southern Europe, Turkey and Egypt and
  large parts of Australia.
• A second tier of cities including Dublin are
  likely to face severe water demand over the next
  20 years, while international bankers had already
  begun to see a market in water rights in
  relation to ownership of rivers and lakes and
  access to water in the ground.

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How much?

• 1 pound of lettuce 23 gallons
• 1 pound of tomatoes 23 gallons
• 1 pound of potatoes 24 gallons
• 1 pound of wheat 25 gallons
• 1 pound of carrots 33 gallons
• 1 pound of apples 49 gallons
• 1 pound of chicken 815 gallons
• 1 pound of pork 1,630 gallons

University of California
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• One pound of grain-fed beef needs at least 3,000
  gallons of water

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Regional virtual water balances and net
interregional virtual water flows related to the
trade in agricultural products. Period
1997-2001.
Water Footprint Network
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Projected agriculture in 2080 due to climate
change
UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library,
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Keeping up?
Source Meadows, Randers and Meadows LTG 30 year
update 2004
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Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
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Percent Increase in Nitrogen Flows in Rivers
Source Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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The TimesMarch 7, 2008Rush for biofuels
threatens starvation on a global scale
In 2007 1/3 of US corn acreage was earmarked for
bioethanol
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Fisheries peaking
Source Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea
Around Us project
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Keeping fit 'good for the planet' Monday, 20
Apr 2009 A lean population of 1 billion people
would emit 1.0 GT (1,000 million tonnes) less
carbon dioxide equivalents per year compared with
a fat one. International Journal of
Epidemiology
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Diseases of development?

• Obese Americans half as wealthy as thin ones.
• Almost one in five Chinese children under seven
  is
• overweight and more than seven percent are obese
• Globally gtI billion overweight.
• Cardiovascular disease - as many deaths in
• young/middle-aged adults as HIV/AIDS.
• One in two US Hispanics born in 2000 will become
• diabetic.
• India 57 million diabetics by 2025
• Strong link between health and positive and
• negative economic growth

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the greenhouse gas emissions arising every year
from the production and consumption of
cheeseburgers is roughly the amount emitted by
6.5 million to 19.6 million SUVs
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6,772,050,570 at 0950 yesterday
Source United Nations, World Population
Prospects The 2006 Revision (2007).
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Total Fertility Rate by Wealth
Average Number of Children Born to a Woman During
Her Lifetime
Source ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
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Total Fertility Rate by Education
Average Number of Children Born to a Woman During
Her Lifetime
Source ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
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Density
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http//ucatlas.ucsc.edu/
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wikepedia
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WDR 2006
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An urban world
POPULATION IN BILLIONS 2
4 6 8 10

URBAN DEVELOPING
URBAN DEVELOPED
RURAL
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Globally, urban areas contribute about 75 to
greenhouse gas emissions
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The poorer.. the quicker
http//www.bbc.co.uk/gcsebitesize
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Premature deaths due to outdoor Particulate
Matter exposure
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• International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• CO2 levels at their highest for 650,000 years.
• Climate change unequivocally happening, and 90
  certain that its due to man-made emissions.
• 10-15 years to put in place serious measures to
  start reducing emissions of CO2.
• Best guess indicates global temperature will
  rise by 1.8c to 4c by 2100. Worst case up
  to 6.4c.
• Policy responses geared to hold temperature
  increase below 2c.
• Urgent need to agree on global stabilisation
  target. 550 ppm CO2 increasingly seen to be
  inadequate. 450 ppm CO2 emerging as new consensus
  figure.

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Stern Review
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European 2003 Summer Temperatures normal by
2040s, cool by 2060s
2060s
observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2040s
2003
Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) C
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Source Pim Martens (http//www.exploratorium.edu/
climate/global-effects/data3.html)
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Coastal concentration
Source UNEP 2002
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• UK will face peak oil crisis within five years,
  report warns
• Declining availability of oil will hit the UK
  earlier than generally expected, with potentially
  devastating implications for the UK economy,
  report warns.
• Wednesday October 29 2008

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Proved oil reserves
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
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New Zealand 2003
www.bbc.co.uk
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The area of desert that would need to be covered
in CSP plants to provide all the power needs for
Germany, the EU and the world respectively.
Slide 78
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Ecological footprint 1996 and 2050
3
6
9
0
Source WWF Living Planet Report 2004
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The big debate
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• "Low- income countries will need to grow at 3.6
  percent per capita to meet the United Nations'
  MDG of halving poverty by 2015, but this growth
  must be achieved in a manner that preserves our
  future. It would be reckless of us to
  successfully reach the MDGs in 2015, only to be
  confronted by dysfunctional cities, dwindling
  water supplies, more inequality and conflict, and
  even less cropland to sustain us than we have
  now.
• Ian Johnson, VP of the World Bank's
  Environmentally and Socially Sustainable
  Development Network 2003

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Income gaps between economies
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.and within economies
wikepedia
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Quality of life?
Eurobarometer survey
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Making the connections
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High consequence risks facing the UK
UK National Risk Register - Cabinet Office 2008
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Pew Global Attitudes Project Oct 2007
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What does leadership look like?

• 1. What needs to happen?
• What are the priorities?
• 2. What sort of leadership?
• Whos going to do it?
• National? Local? Regional? Global?
• Politics? Business? Faith? Civil society?
• 3. What are the obstacles?