North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability

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Title: North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal Variability


1
North Atlantic Ocean Multi-Decadal
Variability Phil Klotzbach Department of
Atmospheric Science Colorado State
University Climate Diagnostics and Prediction
Workshop October 23, 2007
2
Outline
  • Potential driver Atlantic thermohaline
    circulation
  • Effects on Atlantic basin hurricanes
  • Effects on United States hurricane landfalls
  • Conclusions

3
160oW
20oE
4
SURFACE
500 METERS
5
(No Transcript)
6
Salt Water Density
Fresh Water Density
7
(No Transcript)
8
Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)
9
NADW
Tropics
THC - Strong
THC - Strong
20 Sr
20 Sr
Negative buoyancy
Positive buoyancy
NADW
THC - Weak
THC - Weak
10 Sr
10 Sr
Positive buoyancy
Negative buoyancy
10
STRONG THC
WARM
11
SSTA
SSTA -




SLPA
SLPA
gyre -
gyre


STRONG THC
WEAK THC
12
THC Index (SST SLP)
13
Top 20 THC Years Bottom 20 THC Years
(1878-2006) - SST
14
Top 20 THC Years Bottom 20 THC Years
(1878-2006) - SLP
15
FAST
FAST
SLOW
SLOW
Thermohaline Circulation
Rate of Salt Buildup from (E-P) - River 0
Salt Anomaly (S1)
(S1)
(S1)
YEARS
30
60
90
120
16
(No Transcript)
17
Top 20 Bottom 20 THC Ratios
18
THC STRONG
CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS
THC WEAK
CAT 3-4-5 TRACKS
19
1950-1964 1997-2006 25 YEARS
13 Major Hurricanes
1970-1994 25 YEARS 3
Major Hurricanes
54
55
THC STRONG
THC WEAK
85
54
55
54
60
89
59
04
50
92
05
04
50
60
20
(No Transcript)
21
FLORIDA LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANES
1
3
11
22
Conclusions
  • Multi-decadal variability in Atlantic basin sea
    surface temperatures and sea level pressures
    exists and is likely driven by changes in
    strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation
  • Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity (and
    especially major hurricane activity) is much more
    frequent during strong THC years
  • Florida peninsula and East Coast landfalls are
    dramatically altered by THC phase changes
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