Role of IMD in Climate change and persistent droughts: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in rice

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Role of IMDinClimate change and persistent
droughts Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation
in rice growing sub divisions in India

• Dr LS Rathore
• Head, Agri-Met Division Additional Director
  General
• India Meteorological Department
• New Delhi 110 003
• LSRATHORE_at_NCMRWF.GOV.IN

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Study Objectives

• To quantify the regional aspects of droughts
• To evaluate the historical changes of rice
  production in selected (1-2) major rice growing
  sub divisions in India
• To analyze the impacts of future water needs of
  rice crop and water availability due to climate
  changes
• To assess rice agro-ecosystem sensitivity to
  climate change, by using high-resolution regional
  model simulations
• To develop integrated agro techniques to minimize
  the negative impacts of drought
• To analyze the possible loss of livelihoods due
  to climate change
• To disseminate results relevant stakeholders
• Develop a capacity building program on Climate
  change impacts and agro-ecosystem sensitivity
  Vulnerability and Adaptability in the rice
  growing divisions in India.

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Data Model Needs of Project

• Daily precipitation, temperature and solar
  radiation data for the available time period from
  meteorological sub divisions in the region
• Data on ground water availability
• Data on usage of water by agricultural sector and
  percentage water used for rice production
• Area, production and productivity of rice
  District-wise/state-wise
• Hydrological/Water balance models (a user
  friendly model will be chosen)
• Crop weather models (INFOCROP / DSSAT)
• Climate change models

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Role of IMD

• Provide Historical weather data (daily
  precipitation, temperature and radiation /
  sunshine hours.
• Assist in Investigation of the regional aspects
  of persistence of droughts associated with the
  vagaries of Indian monsoon over various
  meteorological subdivisions of India
• Crop weather models (INFOCROP / DSSAT)
• To disseminate results relevant stakeholders
• Develop a capacity building program

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Role of IMD ..Contd

• Short training course for scientific staff and
  students
• Assessing the value of high-resolution regional
  model simulations for describing the future
  impacts of climate change on the frequency and
  intensity of drought over selected subdivisions
• Development of policy plans to meet extreme
  situation such as persistent drought with respect
  to rice production

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IMD-though AMFUs

• Co-ordinate regional aspects contained in the
  proposal through Agro-Met Field Units functioning
  in different agro-climatic zones
• Socio-economic vulnerability assessment

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Possible impacts of the project through
involvements of other AMFUs

• Raise awareness of climate change impacts on
  agriculture in India amongst relevant
  stakeholders
• Enhance national capacity in India to integrate
  climate change considerations into agriculture
  development policies
• Identification and implementation of integrated
  mitigation strategies to sustain rice
  productivity under changing climatic conditions
• Offer transferable frameworks and techniques for
  other rice growing sub-divisions in India
• Develop project outputs to help guide decision
  making and improve the data and information base

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AAS AMFUs

• Agro-Met Observations
• Weather Forecast preparation Dissemination
• Advisory Preparations by Agro-Meteorological
  Field Units at SAUs/ICAR institutions
• Advisory Dissemination
• Feed-back System

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India Meteorological Department

• Milestones 1932, 1945, 1976
• 23 State Agromet Service Centre in collaboration
  with SDA
• Agro-advisory preparation - Monday Thursday
• Composite Agro-advisory preparation- Tuesday
  Friday
• Dissemination- AIR, Doordarshan, Print media,
  Website

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National Centre for Medium Range Forecasting

• 107 AAS units with SAUs ICAR institutes
• 4-days forecast weekly outlook preparation-
  Tuesday Friday
• Agromet Advisory Board Agro-advisory - Tuesday
  Friday
• Composite bulletin preparation Monday
• Crop Weather Models
• Dissemination- AIR, Doordarshan, Print media, Web
• Feedback Farmers, Forecast Verification,
  Economic Impact Assessment Annual Review
  Meetings
• AAS awareness user interaction programmes

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Current Status For Preparation of Location
Specific Weather Forecast At IMD/NCMRWF
DIRECT MODEL
OUTPUT FORECAST
STATISTICAL
SYNOPTIC
INTERPRETATION
INTERPRETATION
OF MODEL FORECAST
OF MODEL FORECAST
FORECASTERS
PANEL
FINAL FORECAST (ACZ Scale)
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AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ADVISORY SERVICE OF NCMRWF
NCMRWF


PREPARATION OF LOCATION SPECIFIC FORECAST
FEEDBACK FROM FARMERS/ AAS UNIT
INTERNET FAX/PHONE
AAS UNITS (SAUs / ICAR institutes)
PREPARATION OF AGROMET ADVISORY BULLETIN


FARMERS FEEDBACK
AIR
PERSONAL
T.V.
PRINT
CONTACT
FARMERS
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Proposed District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service
System
IMD/NCMRWF
PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE
WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE
Agro-climate level agro-met data
130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS
PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC
AGRO-ADVISORIES FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC
District-wise Agro-met data
DISTRICT AGRICULTURE OFFICES OF STATE
GOVERNMENTS
DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES
Feedback analysis
FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA, EXTENSION SERVICES,
PERSONAL CONTACT)
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NCMRWF FORECAST PRODUCTS DISSEMINATED TO AAS
UNITS     ? 24 HR PRECIPITATION (MM) ? AVERAGE
CLOUDINESS (OKTA) ? AVERAGE WIND SPEED (KMPH) AT
10 FT HEIGHT ? PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION
(DEG.) AT 10 FT HEIGHT ? MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
TREND (DEG. C) AT 4.5 FT HEIGHT ? MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE TREND (DEG. C) AT 4.5 FT HEIGHT    
Frequency of Forecast Twice-a-week
Dissemination On Tuesday and Friday Period
covered 4 days/Outlook for week  
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Indian Council of Agricultural Research

• 25 Centers of AICRP on Agro Meteorology
• Located at SAUs with AAS of NCMRWF
• RD in Agromet
• Agromet data bank Website

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Salient Features of Agromet Advisory Service (AAS)

• AgroMet Field Units (AMFU) in all classified
  agro-climatic zones.
• Units are opened in State Agricultural
  Universities and ICAR
• Institutes.
• Strong Linkage with AICRP-AgMet of ICAR
• Weather Forecast in quantitative terms for 4 days
  with outlook for a week
• AMFUs translate Wx forecasts into Advisories
• Improved Advisory Dissemination Farmers
  Feedback Mechanism
• Units run Crop Weather Models and include output
  in the day today advisories.

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Gaps in Earlier AAS System

• Though IMD/NCMRWF services were useful but demand
  of the farming community could not be fully met
  due to following gaps
• Non-availability of District specific weather
  forecast
• Non-availability of Extended Range Weather
  Forecast
• Non-availability of real-time crop information.
• Lack of objectivity in Advisories
• Lack of strong outreach/extension mechanism.

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AAS- Future It revolves on some critical
questions

• Assessment of information needed by diverse
  groups of end-users
• Generation of seamless weather forecast
• Development of tools to integrate agro-
• meteorological data into useful information
• Generate farm level advisories
• Effective communication of agro-meteorological
  information
• Training needs of end-users

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• During XIth Five Year Plan, Ministry Of Earth
  Sciences (MoES) Plans to Improve Weather Based
  Advisory Service for Farming Community by
  Reorganizing the Existing Agro-Meteorological
  Advisory Services (AAS). It will be Implemented
  in Close Collaboration With Ministry of
  Agriculture Ag. Universities

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Reorganization Plan for IAAS

• Is Aimed to Improve in
• Weather Forecast Advisory Content
• Use of Modern Technology in AAS
• Advisory Dissemination Mechanism
• Feedback Mechanism
• linkages with Administrative Authorities
• Monitoring System
• Mechanism for Continuous Up-gradation
• Mutual Collaboration by Related Agencies

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Launching of Integrated Agromet Advisory Services

• AAS of IMD and NCMRWF has been converged and the
  services are being provided under single window
  system.
• All the AMFUs of NCMRWF has been transferred to
  IMD since 01-04-2007.

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Weather Forecast
Capacity Building
Key Issues in development of Agromet Advisory
Service
Data Observation
Telecom Outreach
Research Development
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PHILOSOPHY OF INTEGRATED AAS

• AAS has to be essentially a multi-institutional
  program.
• As the basic core is weather and climate, IMD has
  to play pivotal role. Integrate AAS at IMD in a
  collaborative manner.
• Around meteorological nucleus, one needs to
  synthesize the orbits of agro-meteorological data
  base along with decision support system to
  translate weather forecast into advisory-SAUs,
  ICAR Institutions others
• The final orbit comprises of Information
  dissemination agencies. These include KVK, DAO,
  ATMA, NGOs etc
• Mass media dissemination agencies such as Radio,
  television, print media etc. And Village level
  knowledge dissemination agencies (DIT) needs to
  play an active role.

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Collaborating Agencies

• Ministry Of Earth Sciences
• India Meteorological Department
• National Centre For Medium Range Weather
  Forecasting
• Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
• Indian Council For Agricultural Research
• Department Of Agriculture Cooperation
• State Departments Of Agriculture
• State Agricultural Universities And Other
  Universities
• Ministry of Information Technology
• Ministry of Science Technology
• Ministry of Information Broadcasting (AIR TV)
• Print Media
• Department Of Space
• Min. of Rural Development
• MSSR Foundation Other NGOs PP

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Plan For Integrated AAS
Drivers of Integration- Need for Crop specific
District Level Advisory and Village Level
Outreach.
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Multimodel Super Ensemble Technique
Generation of Multi-model Forecasts
Step-2
NCMRWF T-254
NCEP GFS
UK Met
JMA
Forecast wiFi d
d Value-addition
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FORECAST SYSTEM
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Advisory Service System
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AGROMET ADVISORY

• WEATHER/CLIMATE INFORMATION
• - summary of preceding week,
• - Climatic normal for the week, Weather
• - Medium Range Weather forecast
• CROP INFORMATION
• - Type, state and phenological stages of the
  crops
• - Information on pest and disease and
• - Information on crop stresses
• ADVISORY FOR WEATHER WISE FARM MANAGEMENT
• - Crop-wise farm management information tailored
  to weather sensitive agricultural practices
  like sowing, irrigation scheduling, p d control
  operation, fertilizer use etc.
• - Spraying condition for insect, weed and their
  products
• - Livestock management information for housing,
  health and nutrition etc.

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Integrated Approach to Prepare Advisory
Simulation
Remote Sensing
GIS
Agro met Products
Agro met Advisory
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Dissemination of Advisories

• Mass Mode of Dissemination
• All India radio/Television/Print Media
• Outreach at Village level
• Web Pages/Internet
• DIT/NIC
• TCS/TCL/MSSRF/ Kisan Call Centers NGOs
• Interactive Dissemination
• KVK (ICAR) Training interaction
• DAO (SDA) Coordinate Farm inputs
• NGOs other intermediary groups
• Awareness Program (Kisan Mela, Exhibition etc)

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Dissemination Criticality

• Time Frequency of Dissemination
• Mode of Dissemination
• Language of Bulletins
• Frequent Interaction Constant Feedback

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Establishment of Common Service Centres (CSC) by
DIT

• DIT is developing ICT facilities for the benefit
  of the citizens, especially those in rural
  remote areas.
• 1,00,000 CSC will be set up in rural areas by the
  year 2007 to provide all possible services.
• Among others, Agro Met services would be provided
  through the CSCs.
• State governments are putting up appropriate
  institution mechanism for such support.

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Feedback Issues Mechanism

• Quality of Forecast
• Quality relevance of Advisories
• Farmer should contact Whom How?
• Problem solving through interactive mode
• Answering questions of common interest through
  bulletins
• Accessibility to information via ICT
• Accessibility to Experts video Conferencing

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Salient feature of Integrated AAS

• Involve all concerned organizations
• Improved observing system
• District specific weather forecast
• District Specific Advisories using advanced tools
• Operational mechanism with extension and
  information disseminating agencies
• Efficient outreach system
• Monitoring and Feedback Mechanism

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Proposed District-Level Medium Range Forecast
602 Stations
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Thanks