Calculate,%20map%20and%20used%20of%20critical%20loads%20and%20exceedances%20for%20acidity%20and%20nitrogen%20in%20Europe - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Calculate,%20map%20and%20used%20of%20critical%20loads%20and%20exceedances%20for%20acidity%20and%20nitrogen%20in%20Europe

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Calculate, map and used of critical loads and exceedances for acidity and nitrogen in Europe – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Calculate,%20map%20and%20used%20of%20critical%20loads%20and%20exceedances%20for%20acidity%20and%20nitrogen%20in%20Europe


1
Calculate, map and used of critical loads and
exceedances for acidity and nitrogen in Europe
  • Professor Harald Sverdrup
  • Chemical Engineering, Lund University,
  • Sweden

Harald.Sverdrup_at_chemeng.lth.se
2
The European game plan
3
An effect-based methodology
4
Defining the critical load
  • The maximum amount of pollution into an ecosystem
    that does not cause significant damage to system
    resources, survival, structure or function

5
The critical load
Contributions to neutralization in the system
Contributions to acidity in the system
6
Targets to protect
7
Response was measured
Norway spruce BC/Al1.2 Scots pine
BC/Al1.0 Birch BC/Al 0.8 Beech, Oak
BC/Al0.6
8
Many effect parameters are available
9
Models available for critical loads for acidity
and nitrogen
  • Empirical models
  • Skokloster model
  • Empirical nitrogen critical loads
  • Simplified models
  • Simple mass balance (SMB)
  • F-factor models (lakes)
  • Integrated steady state models
  • PROFILE model
  • Integrated dynamic models
  • VSD model (soils)
  • MAGIC model family (lakes)
  • SAFE/ForSAFE-VEG model family (terrestial
    ecosystems)

10
The order of the actions
  • Static approach first
  • - Simple mass balance models
  • - Complex approach PROFILE
  • - Create critical loads maps
  • Apply dynamic models at sites with enough data
  • - Single sites - qualitative assessments
  • - Generate regional approach - representative
  • information capture and transformation

11
PROFILE/ForSAFE
12
Revised critical loads for forests, lakes and
streams
13
Critical Load for acidity and nitrogen in the
grid system
14
Critical loads for ecosystems in Europe, forests,
open land and lakes
15
The best solution is sought for
16
The Swedish example1988 exceedence was far too
much !
17
Exceedance depend on the receptor chosen
Medel 37 mekv/m2/år
18
Exceedance with the Göteborg protocol
19
Sulfur deposition 1980-2010
  • Green 3-6 kg S/ha yr
  • Red gt 25 kg S/ha yr

20
Exceedance of critical loads
  • Blue lt 3 kg S/ha yr
  • Red gt 25 kg S/ha yr

21
Validation is difficult
22
Exceedance and effects are NOT simultaneous in
time
23
Countries now into integrated regional dynamic
modelling
13 NFCs submitted Dynamic Modelling
outputs Austria, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Czech
Republic, Germany, France, Great Britain,
Ireland, Italy, Norway, Luxembourg, Poland,
Sweden.
24
What are the model predictions?
  • Recovery does not reverse the path of
    acidification
  • Fast effect initially, very slow final recovery
  • Recovery is not 100

25
Prediction Lake pH in Scandinavia
26
Dynamic simulationsSoil pH in the long runin
Sweden
27
But BC/Al what we work with
28
Soil base saturation, lost ?
29
Simple messages to policy?
  • Critical load (CL)
  • No significant harmful effects if deposition
    dont exceed CL
  • Target load (TL)
  • Recovery by specified year if deposition dont
    exceed TL

30
Interpretation of target loads
Will not recover by 2030
Will recover by 2030
31
TLmax(S)-2030 5th percentile CLmax(S)
32
20 years with critical loads
  • 1968 Acidification put on the official agenda by
    Prof Svante Oden in Uppsala
  • 1979 Convention on long range transboundary air
    pollution
  • 1985 First Olso protocol on flat rate 30 sulfur
    emission reduction
  • 1990 The second Oslo protocol, effects based but
    settling on 60 sulfur emission reduction
  • 1999 The Göteborg protocol, effects based
    settling for -85 S/-30 NOx
  • 2010 revision of the Göteborg effects based
    protocol

33
Conclusions
  • International efforts to prevent acidification
    have been very successful
  • Critical oads very extremely successful in
    linking environmental goals through science to
    policy
  • Acidification remains as a large and significant
    problem in large areas of Europe

34
Time for questions !!
35
(No Transcript)
36
Discusssion slide
37
Hva skulle ha hendt om vi ikke hade hatt noen
internasjonale avtaler og nedfall som i 1980 for
all fremtid ?Gissa !
Do nothin and keep acid rain for good ?
38
Base saturation melts like butter in the sun
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