Vulnerability to climate change

1
Climate Change and Douglas-fir Dave
Spittlehouse, Research Branch, BC Min. Forest
and Range, Victoria
2
Outline

• Climate changes for PNW
• Implications for Douglas-fir
• Management vulnerability assessments and
  adaptation

3
(Adapted from IPCC - Climate Change 2007 The
Physical Science Basis)
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
Climate change and Douglas-fir
9
Change in Douglas-fir climates in US
? 4?C warming
(Rehfeldt et al. 2006)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
Environmental factors

• Photosynthesis light, nutrition, soil water,
  temperature, CO2
• Respiration temperature, soil water,
  photosynthesis
• Physiology (e.g., carbon allocation, bud set)
  temperature - chilling, frost
• Genetics
• Disturbance fire, insects, disease,
  harvest/reforestation, weather (wind, frost)

14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17
Water availability and growth

• Precipitation in fall, winter and early spring gtgt
  evaporative demand
• Amount of water in May through July to meet
  evaporative demand
• Summer water availability (May, June July
  Rainfall) 60 of water storage capacity of the
  root zone
• Water storage capacity f(texture, stone
  content, depth)

18
(No Transcript)
19
Influence of climate change

• ?Temperature ?Evaporative ?Summer water C
  demand () balance (mm)
• 1 3 2 7
  
• 3 10 4 15

? ppt -10 -20 -20 -32
-25 -40 -30 -45
-40 -53
(Spittlehouse 2003)
20
Change in growth by 2050 for the CGCM2-A2 scenario

• Evaporation Precipitation 10
  reduction in volume
• Temperature 15 reduction in NPP
• Total 25 reduction over 50 y

21
Reforestation

• Increased risk of failure due to drier summers

22

• Possible offsets?
• CO2 fertilization
• Increased water use efficiency

23
Disturbance

• Fire 4?C temperature - Increase length fire
  season 4 to 20 days - Increase severity
  ratio by 0 to 50 (Flannigan et al.
  2005)
• Insects and disease - ?

24
Vulnerability to climate change

• Timber supply for the next 50 years
• Reforestation and trees for gt50 years
• Forest operations
• Water quality and quantity
• NTFP
• Wildlife habitat
• Conservation

25
Adaptation

• Reduce vulnerability - Minimise negative
  effects - Take advantage of opportunities
• Biological - Adapt the forest to the changing
  climate
• Societal - Adapt to the response of forests to
  the changing climate

26
Challenges

• When will we know enough to respond?
• Which climate scenario?
• Species/provenance climate sensitivity
• Developing interim adaptive actions
• Who manages the risk?
• Scale

27
Summary

• Significant change in the area of climate
  suitable for Douglas-fir
• Provenances and optimum climate
• Reductions in productivity - increase in
  respiration - increase in water restriction to
  photosynthesis
• Increase in fire, reforestation failure
• Vulnerability assessments