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Forests Uncertainties, Data, Research Needs in Projecting the Effects of Climate Change and Determining Adaptation Responses

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Title: Forests Uncertainties, Data, Research Needs in Projecting the Effects of Climate Change and Determining Adaptation Responses


1
Forests Uncertainties, Data, Research Needs in
Projecting the Effects of Climate Change and
Determining Adaptation Responses
  • Linda Joyce
  • USDA FS

Credits to the USFS RPA and the USFS Global
Change Research Program and the Wildlife Habitat
Policy Research Program for funding And to many
other scientists working in the area of
adaptation and climate change whose research will
be cited
2
Major Points Forests and Woodlands
  • Effects of climate change on forests
  • Short-term and Long-term Adaptations
  • Moving beyond evaluating average biophysical
    change to a fuller characterization of the risks
    to forests

3
What climate change effects can we characterize
now
Changes in monthly temperature and precipitation
at spatial scales ranging from 0.5 degree to 10
km to 1 km
  • For individual species
  • Distributional ranges of plants and animals
  • For trees and forests
  • Productivity N cycle
  • Biomass
  • Carbon
  • Composition shifts

4
Climate Change Drought, Flooding
  • Extreme climatic events
  • Will reorganize forests and woodlands

Drought
5
Climate-mediated Disturbances Fire
  • Will reorganize forests and woodlands

6
Climate-mediated disturbance Insects
  • Outbreaks will likely increase
  • Predisposing factors differ by insect and area
  • Dieback in pinon-juniper woodlands mortality
    caused by insects
    Left 2002, Right 2004
  • Water Stress and Insects
  • Wet-Dry Cycle
  • Previous to the drought -- several years of
    above-average precipitation, increased growth,
    set the stage for high sensitivity to water stress

Photo credit Craig Allen, USGS
7
Climate-mediated disturbance Insects
  • Outbreaks will likely increase,
  • Predisposing factors differ by insect and area
  • Large-scale dieback in lodgepole pine in Canada
  • Warming winter temperatures -- Range expansion
  • Human influence -- large areas of similar aged
    trees, right age for beetles
  • Warming temperatures speeds up the insects
    lifecycle

Carroll 2006 BC Ministry of Forests
8
Effects of Climate Change elevated CO2
Rising CO2 will very likely increase
photosynthesis for forests, But the increased
photosynthesis will likely only increase wood
production in young fertile soils.
We model the CO2 effect on forest productivity,
biomass, and carbon but do we have it right?
9
Effects of Climate Change Species
Observed changes in phenology for plants and
animals
89 of 100 flowering plants in DC area blooming
4.5 days earlier in 2000 vs. 1970 (Abu-Asab et
al. 2001)
Cherry blossoms studied since 1400 show steady
advancement since 1952. Grape harvests over the
last 500 years correlated with Apr-Aug
temperatures
10
Changes in the Distribution of Sugar Maple (Acer
saccharum)
Modeled Climatic Range (1971-2000)
Slide from Dan McKenney, CFS www.planthardiness.gc
.ca
11
Effects of Climate Change Habitat
Forest-associated wildlife will be affected by
changes in forest habitat as well as changes in
climate
Highest stress associated with major biome
transitions Underlying source of stress varies
by region of the US and by habitat within regions
12
Effects of Climate Change
Ecological Effects many unknowns
  • Regeneration
  • Natural regeneration
  • After extreme events
  • Other extreme events ice, wind
  • Long-term impacts of seasonal variability
  • Interactions with current stressors air
    quality, invasives
  • Asynchrony

13
Adaptation in Human Systems
Timing Options for Resource Management
  • Short-Term
  • Protect resources through increased resistance to
    climate change and increased resilience
  • Address current stressors to increase forest
    health
  • Plan ahead to react after extreme events and
    disturbances

14
3. Plan ahead to react after extreme events and
disturbances
SHORT-TERM OPTIONS
Perhaps, the best time to adjust resource
management may be after a disturbance.
Hurricanes restoration of longleaf pine
ecosystem
Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPP)
of Communities at Risk 64,846
covered by CWPP 7.1
15
Adaptation in Human Systems
Timing Options for Resource Management
16
LONG-TERM OPTIONS
1. Respond to Climate Influences
Develop Mix of Options for Management
Expand Genetic Diversity Guidelines seed zones,
mixes
Establish Neo-native Plantations Experiment
with Refugia Use Redundancy (multiple habitats
and ecosystems) Promote Connected Landscapes
Capitalize on New Opportunities
17
Adaptation and Mitigation
  • Different spatial scales
  • Adaptation sensitive to the local
  • Mitigation often established or standardized at
    larger political scales
  • Can impact the success of the other
  • Adaptation can increase the carbon footprint
  • Mitigation can have negative impacts on ecosystem
    services, such as water.
  • Both are needed and need to be complimentary

18
Analyzing Forest Policy/Management with Climate
Change Effects
  • Climate-Ecological-Economic Models

Sources of Variability Emission Scenarios GDP,
Population Assumptions World Peace, etc Climate
Models Physics but implementation
varies Downscaling
19
Variability in Climate Projections
20
Analyze more than 1 scenario
IPCC Scenario and Response to CO2 Climate Model Climate Model Climate Model
IPCC Scenario and Response to CO2 CSIRO CGCM HADLEY
A2 Low
B2 Low
A2 High
B2 High
Joyce and Flather, in prep
21
Analyzing Forest Policy/Management with Climate
Change Effects
  • Climate-Ecological-Economic Pathway

Sources of Variability Which modeling approach
Biogeochemical Individual species distribution
Biogeography Dynamic global vegetation
model Environmental Factors Soils, air quality,
topography
What disturbances Fire, Insects Spatial scale
grid, watershed, US Land Use and Management
22
Climate-mediated Disturbances Fire
  • Will reorganize forests and woodlands

Forest Management and Sector models Fire has been
modeled within a forest sector model Based on
runs from an ecological model (MC1) where fire
was modeled Imposed as a loss of live tree
biomass to dead wood within a forest type and
area within a single time step Change in the
stock in addition to climate change effects on
the flow -- Sohngen
23
Modeling the Climate Envelope of Species
Recent past
Future
(precipitation)
Environmental Variable 2
Environmental Variable 1
(temperature)
Adapted from Williams et al. PNAS 2007
24
Data for Climate envelop models historical
ranges and current climate data
Mean Annual Temperature (1971-2000)
Historical range of a tree species- Littles maps
  • 30-year averages for 1971 to 2000
  • 6 variables used in analysis
  • 1) Annual mean temp
  • 2) Min Temp coldest month
  • 3) Max temp hottest month
  • 4) Annual precipitation
  • 5) Precip during coldest month
  • 6) Precip during warmest month

Regional, National and International Climate
Modeling
http//www.glfc.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/landscape/climate_
models_e.html
25
Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum)
Climatic Range (1971-2000)
Entire analysis involved 3 climate models and 2
SRES scenarios
www.planthardiness.gc.ca
26
Species Migration and Climate Change - the
great unknown -
Extent to which plants will be able to shift
with climate is unknown Methods have been
developed to model migratory patterns McKenney
and others have defined two extreme scenarios
to bound the problem 1) full dispersal 2) no
dispersal
Full Dispersal
No Dispersal
27
Species showing greatest declines in Climate
Habitat size
Loblolly Bay (2071-2100)
Loblolly Bay (current)
28
Discussion Points - Climate Envelop Models
  • Fundamental versus realized niche.fundamental
    niche larger and unknown, modeling actual and
    even potential distributions VERY difficult
  • Choice of climate variables -- effects of
    extreme weather/climatological events and other
    errors in variables?
  • Other biotic and abiotic interactions.lots of
    complexity!
  • Ethics and risk preferences Assisted migration
    or not? (McLachlan et al 2007)

29
Analyze more than 1 scenario
IPCC Scenario and Response to CO2 Climate Model Climate Model Climate Model
IPCC Scenario and Response to CO2 CSIRO CGCM HADLEY
A2 Low
B2 Low
A2 High
B2 High
Joyce and Flather, in prep
30
Synthesizing the Ecological Response
IPCC Scenario and Response to CO2 Climate Model Climate Model Climate Model
IPCC Scenario and Response to CO2 CSIRO CGCM HADLEY
A2 Low
B2 Low
A2 High
B2 High
Joyce and Flather, in prep
31
Synthesize climate effect on wildlife habitat
Composite of 12 scenarios
Coefficient of Variation
Variation of CSI is generally low in high stress
areas, high in low stress areas.
Joyce and Flather, in prep
32
Analyzing Forest Policy/Management with Climate
Change Effects
  • Climate-Ecological-Economic Pathway

Sources of Variability Type of forest management
model Assumptions in historical data Linked
with which ecological model Biogeochemical,
Individual species, DGVMs Cross-walk to Age
class, site class, Management Intensification
33
Moving beyond .to a fuller characterization of
risks to forests
  • Additional post-analysis of ecological model
    results
  • Characterize variability
  • Responses to climate by forest type over time
  • Variability across environmental factors such as
    soils
  • Analysis of episodic events fire
  • Exploration of new and old management strategies
  • Migration of species across the human-dominated
    landscape, new to area, assisted migration
  • Incorporate successional processes into the
    ecological models regeneration key to invasives

34
Moving beyond .to a fuller characterization of
risks to forests
  • Linking the ecological models to the forest
    management and sector models
  • Analysis of the management/forest sector model
    sensitivity to the different climate and economic
    scenarios

35
2010 USFS RPA Models and Scenario Analysis
Global IPCC Scenarios
Socioeconomic Variables
Bioenergy Forecasts
Climate Forecasts
Global Forest Products Model
US Forest Products Model
Translation / Downscaling
Translation / Downscaling
Timber supply
Forest Dynamics Model
Domestic Macroeconomics and Demographics Forecast
s
Forest area supply
Land Use Model
Forecasted Forest Conditions and Land Use
Forecasted Wood Products and Timber Outputs and
prices
Carbon Accounting
Ecosystem Services Wildlife, Water, Recreation,
Forage
Landscape Structure
36
2010 USFS RPA Models and Scenario Analysis
Global IPCC Scenarios
Socioeconomic Variables
Bioenergy Forecasts
Climate Forecasts
Global Forest Products Model
US Forest Products Model
Translation / Downscaling
Translation / Downscaling
Timber supply
Forest Dynamics Model
Domestic Macroeconomics and Demographics Forecast
s
Forest area supply
Land Use Model
Forecasted Forest Conditions and Land Use
Forecasted Wood Products and Timber Outputs and
prices
Carbon Accounting
Ecosystem Services Wildlife, Water, Recreation,
Forage
Landscape Structure
37
2010 USFS RPA Models and Scenario Analysis
Global IPCC Scenarios
Socioeconomic Variables
Bioenergy Forecasts
Climate Forecasts
Global Forest Products Model
US Forest Products Model
Translation / Downscaling
Translation / Downscaling
Timber supply
Forest Dynamics Model
Domestic Macroeconomics and Demographics Forecast
s
Forest area supply
Land Use Model
Forecasted Forest Conditions and Land Use
Forecasted Wood Products and Timber Outputs and
prices
Carbon Accounting
Ecosystem Services Wildlife, Water, Recreation,
Forage
Landscape Structure
38
2010 USFS RPA Models and Scenario Analysis
Global IPCC Scenarios
Socioeconomic Variables
Bioenergy Forecasts
Climate Forecasts
Global Forest Products Model
US Forest Products Model
Translation / Downscaling
Translation / Downscaling
Timber supply
Forest Dynamics Model
Domestic Macroeconomics and Demographics Forecast
s
Forest area supply
Land Use Model
Forecasted Forest Conditions and Land Use
Forecasted Wood Products and Timber Outputs and
prices
Carbon Accounting
Ecosystem Services Wildlife, Water, Recreation,
Forage
Landscape Structure
39
Moving beyond .to a fuller characterization of
risks to forests
  • The greater potential for change
  • Typically thresholds in the ecological systems
    where a large change occurs are of concern in
    climate change analyses
  • After listening to the mitigation analyses, the
    potential for large change in the human response
    would seem to be an important point in the
    mitigation and adaptation dynamics to understood
    better.
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