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January 2008

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The World Bank's Regular Economic Reports (May, September, January) examine ... Food and oil prices are a main factor. Changes may not be temporary ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: January 2008


1
World Bank EU82 Regular Economic Report Special Topic on Satisfaction with Life and Public Service Delivery January 2008
January 2008
2
  • The World Banks Regular Economic Reports
    (May, September, January) examine recent economic
    developments and prospects in the NMS. Each
    edition includes a Special Topic of current
    policy relevance in the region. This one focuses
    on the satisfaction with life and public services
    .

3
  • Message 1
  • The economic outlook for the EU82 in 2008 and
    2009 is generally positive, however, as in the
    advanced economies, the baseline scenario is now
    subject to greater downside risk.

4
  • GDP growth rates peaked in many countries in the
    first half of 2007.
  • This deceleration is likely to continue though
    2008 but growth could still average as much as
    5.
  • The slowdown is most pronounced in the Baltics.
  • Growth should gradually resume in Hungary.
  • Romania and Bulgaria may stay at or near current
    rates of growth.
  • The rates of growth were unsustainable in some
    countries.

5
  • Message 2
  • While globalization offers the prospect of higher
    sustained growth, it also carries risks related
    to turbulence in external markets.

6
  • Potential for more severe global contraction
    affecting export markets in EU.
  • Risk of cutoff of financing for current account
    deficits which are large in the Baltics and are
    continuing to grow in Romania and Bulgaria.
  • Significant portion of debt is denominated in, or
    linked to, foreign currency.

7
  • Message 3
  • The disturbances originating in the sub-prime
    mortgage market in the US have widened to affect
    other countries and other markets, and prospects
    for US growth have become less clear, but several
    factors serve to dampen the effect on the EU82.

8
  • EU82 economies are linked more directly to the
    EU than the US.
  • Banks in the region are not as exposed to the sub
    prime market.
  • Domestic private demand (not net external demand)
    has been the main engine of growth.
  • While credit has increased rapidly, private
    borrowers were under-leveraged a the outset.

9
  • Message 4
  • Inflation is on the rise throughout the region

10
  • Food and oil prices are a main factor.
  • Changes may not be temporary
  • Credit expansion slowing but strong.
  • Currency appreciation effects have reversed in
    some countries.
  • Wage growth easing but still strong
  • Unit labor costs continue to rise.
  • Convergence dynamics create strong price
    pressures for non-traded goods.

11
  • Message 5
  • The region faces some important macroeconomic
    challenges.

12
  • It is difficult for fixed exchange rate countries
    to use monetary policy to fight inflation and
    contain CADs.
  • Monetary policy is less effective when a large
    portion of debt is in foreign currency.
  • Authorities must rely more on fiscal policy to
    control demand but have been reluctant to take
    stronger measures despite buoyant revenues which
    may soften next year.

13
Special topicSatisfaction with Life and
Public Service Delivery in EU82 Countries
  • EBRD-World Bank Life in Transition Survey

14
  • Satisfaction with life and surroundings
  • Satisfaction with public service delivery
  • Other findings
  • Priorities for public investments
  • Democracy
  • Economic system
  • Corruption
  • Income redistribution

15
Overall satisfaction with life is high..
16
..even if that with the economy is not
17
Mixed responses about impact of transition on
their lives
18
.. relative to parents ..
19
..with optimism about the future for children
20
2. Satisfaction with Public Service Delivery
  • Public education
  • Request for official documents
  • Public health system
  • Road police
  • Social security benefits
  • Courts
  • Other police
  • Unemployment benefits

21
Generally high satisfaction levels
22
... though some variation by country
23
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24
3. Other Key Findings
  • Priorities for public investment
  • Democracy
  • Economic system
  • Corruption
  • Income redistribution

25
Support for healthcare is a priority
26
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29
Strong public support for democracy
30
Attitudes towards type of economic system
31
Perceptions regarding corruption
32
Strong Support for Redistribution
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