The Darfur Conflict

1
The Darfur Conflict

• History, Development and Causes

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Sudan Facts

• Size 2.500.000 Km²
• Population 38 Mio.
• National Growth 6,8
• Rentier state (oil revenues and foreign
  remittances)
• 65 of national budget for defense sector
• Literacy rate (gt 15) 60
• Primary education 46
• Life expectancy 56 years
• Access to potable water 75
• HIV/AIDS (age 15-49) 2,3

3
Sudan/History

• Independence 1956 (before British-Egyptian
  condominium)
• Civil wars 1955-1972 and 1983-2005
• 1969 Nimeiri Coup
• 1986 Sadiq al-Mahdi
• 1989 Omar al-Bashir (bloodless coup)
• 2005 CPA signed ends 20 years of civil war

4
Sudan/Government

• President Omar al-Bashir (since 1989)
• System authoritarian militarist and islamist
  regime till 2005.
• National interim government (for 6 years), ruling
  party NCP, partial autonomy of the South, interim
  constitution
• Capital Khartum

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The Sudan
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Other conflict areas

• The three areas
• East Sudan
• North-South conflict may erupt again (recent
  pull-out of SPLM from GONU, lacking
  implementation of CPA, possible scenario is
  separation of South/referendum 2011).

7
Film

• http//www.hrw.org/video/2004/sudan/index2.html

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Darfur
9
Darfur some facts

• Roughly the size of France
• Arabic is the lingua franca
• Population predominantly Muslim
• Three governorates
• 6 Million people

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Short historical overview

• Darfur was an independent state till 1916
• Darfurs Arabs arrived in C14th-18th
• January 1917 Darfur part of British empire
• Assimilated almost peacefully into Sudan
• 1984 famine
• Gadhafi used Darfur as a base to conduct attacks
  into Chad

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Development of the Darfur Conflict

• Scarce resources, marginalisation, and closure of
  CPA lead to
• Two rebel factions (SLA and JEM) staging
  rebellion against Khartum in 2003
• Khartum reacts with military and arming of
  militias (Janjaweed/murahileen).
• Attacks on rebels and civilians

13
The effects of the war

• 200-300.000 dead (Sudan says 9 000)
• 3,5 Mio affected by the crisis, depending on aid
• 2 Mio IDPs, 250 000 refugees in Chad
• i.e. almost half of the 6 Mio inhabitants
  killed, dead or displaced.

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Peace Endeavours

• Cease-fire 2004
• Darfur Peace Agreement May 2006
• AU/UN Mediation
• Peace-keeping Mission AMIS

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The Negotiators
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• Signatory from rebels side (Minni Arko Minnawi)

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The Rebels/Non-signatories
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The Conflict Types

• State-failure/disintegration
• Governance problems (local governance fails)
• Centre-periphery issues (wealth/power
  sharing/unequal development)
• Conflict over resources (Water/oil/land)
• Consequence of availability of arms

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International Interests

• Lybia
• Ethiopia/Eritrea
• Chad/CAR
• Egypt
• US (security/economic/voters)
• CHINA
• RUSSIA

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Where we stand today

• Rebels totally disintegrated, no clear vision,
  alliance with and against Khartum and each other,
  no unification before peacetalk in Tripolis
• Criminalisation, banditry and militias, no
  security
• The peace process at the very beginning,
  cease-fires are ignored
• Humanitarian crisis more or less under control
• AMIS not able to support peace

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Regional spill-over

• Chad and Central African Republic
• Refugees (250 000) into Chad and CAR, militias
  and rebels from both sides across the borders,
  Chad supporting rebels in Darfur
• SPLM pulls out of GONU on Oct. 11th
• This might have a major effect on the future of
  peace talks for Darfur

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The Sudanese Context

• Darfur is not unique in Sudan! It epitomises at
  this stage the inability and lack of political
  will of the central government to establish Good
  Governance
• The same kind of counterinsurgency can occur in
  other regions and has done so before (Nuba
  Mountains).

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German Development Cooperation

• BMZ (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation
  and Development)
• GTZ (Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Technische
  Zusammenarbeit)

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German Support to SUDAN

• No bilateral Development Cooperation with the
  North.
• The following conditions must first be
  fullfilled
• Implementation of the CPA
• Peaceful solution of the Darfur conflict
• Human Rights, Democratisation and Development
  Orientation

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Development Cooperation with GOSS

• Two sectors Water and Governance
• Multi Donour Trust Fund