WBCSD EEB PROJECT Challenges Towards Achieving a Zero Net Energy Building Sector Presentation to GRO

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WBCSD EEB PROJECTChallenges Towards Achieving
a Zero Net Energy Building SectorPresentation
to GROCC 6

• William Sisson
• United Technologies Corporation
• WBCSD EEB Co-chair

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World Business Council for Sustainable Development

• Coalition of 205 Companies

recognized as the voice of business leadership
on sustainable development
GlobeScan 20062 Report
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WBCSD EEB Project Facts/Trends
A world where buildings consume zero net energy
Energy efficiency first From the business
voice Launch and lead sector transformation Contri
bution to sustainable buildings Communicate
openly with markets
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EEBs Facts and Trends
50000 Downloads 10000 Hard copies 1500
Blog visitors/month 75 Conference
attendance Teaching reference in 6
universities Translated into Arabic, Japanese,
Portuguese, Russian Spanish Unique worldwide
perception study on green buildings
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WBCSD EEB Project - Pathways
Stakeholder perceptions Differing scenarios
playing out Submarket decision modeling more
action is needed Is the good news
real? Manifesto for Action to come
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Energy Awareness
Global Final Energy Use (79,000 TWh)
Reference Residential Segment (Cold Climate) 65
Energy Reduction Possible
Buildings (38)
Other (3)
Cooking
Light Appliance
Transport (26)
Water Heating
Building Energy Use, KWh/Bldg
HVAC
Industry (33)
2005 Baseline
2050 Best Adopted
Potential Energy Savings in Buildings is 25 of
Global Energy Usage. Today, Transport Energy
Totals 26 of Global Energy Usage.
Source IEA Worldwide Trends in Energy Use and
Efficiency, (2008)
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Transformation is critical
Relation to IPCC SRES scenario families
Net building energy consumption and CO2
emissions TWh and mtCO2eq.
Too hot 6C
Crisis driven
Little by little
Not enough 4C
Transformation
Just right lt 2C
Time
2010
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Policy and Sector Complexities
Net Negative Cost Abatement Options Will they be
adopted? At what cost? Over what time
horizon? How do they interact? Resulting
impact? How to incentivize?
Source McKinsey, Dec. 2007 Reducing US
Greenhouse Gas Emissions How much and at what
cost?
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Mobilize the Market Dilemma
Todays perception from sector professionals
Source EEB Facts and Trends, August 2007
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An Addressable Market?
Stakeholders Behavior
Diverse Participants
Behavior Commitment and Know-how
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CEO Expectations
The goal is the first quantitative look ever at
what may be accomplished economically to reduce
energy demand and CO2 We expect a persuasive
result.
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EEB Modeling
Leverages existing energy analysis
capabilities 10 person-years of development 1
Million spreadsheet cells 10,000 formula
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Bottoms Up Modeling Method

• Modeling represents 2005 energy and CO2 analysis
  of over 5B square meters of typical building
  space and how it will likely change through 2050
• The model captures stated regional growth rates
  that increase building space to 9.5B sq. meters
• Assesses decision makers of nearly 20M properties
  in 5 geographic regions growing to 30M
• Analysis of over 100 different scenarios and
  policy actions and their impact on decisions
  taken
• Is built upon existing building energy data and
  market data bases

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Need for Integrated Approaches
Homes, US, Warm, High CO2 Grid
Mid-rise Office, Japan, Warm, Modest CO2 Grid
-72
Site Energy (kWhr)
-64
Site Energy (kWhr)
Technical Options
Technical Options
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Impact of Behavior
Site Energy, Total kWh
Site Energy, Total kWh
Near Net-Zero Residence
2005 Typical Residence

• Operational behavior, including maintenance, can
  impact total energy usage by 30 to 50
• Higher efficiency buildings more sensitive to
  operational parameters

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Regulation and Transparency
ECONOMICS 5 Yr NPV First cost
limits INCENTIVES MODELED Heating Systems
-35 Cooling Systems -35 Envelope Systems
-20 PV Systems -65 PV Sell-back 5x
Average per Bldg
Homes, US, Warm, High CO2 Grid
Baseline CO2 Sector CO2
Sector Energy
Heating
Lighting
Cooking
Hot Water
Appliances
Plug Loads
Cooling
Ventilation
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Submarkets Modeled

• Residential
• France single family
• US Southeast single family
• Japan single family
• China Beijing Multifamily
• Swedish Multifamily
• Office
• Japan Kanto Midsized
• US Northeast Large
• Retail
• US Supermarkets
• Brazil Shopping Center

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Developing Recommendations
Recommendations

• Impose stronger standards combined with mandated
  and enforced building energy and CO2 labeling to
  create transparency for all buildings
• Incentivize holistic solutions with passive and
  active measures because they can reduce CO2
  emissions
• Introduce price signals combined with new
  financing mechanisms to offset the high first
  costs for low CO2 technologies
• More to come .

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Project Timeline
Setting Direction 2nd Report
Qualitative Quantitative Assessments
Recommendations to Transform Building Sector
Setting Direction
Facts Trends Report
Formally Announce Project (Beijing)
Manifesto
2009
2006
2007
2008
Assurance Group
Assurance Group
Assurance Group
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