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The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event

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Title: The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme event


1
The winter storm 2005 as an example of an extreme
event a case study for ASTRA
  • Lasse Peltonen
  • Centre for urban and regional studies
  • Helsinki University of Technology
  • ASTRA Meeting,
  • 17-20 May 2006
  • Klaipeda, Lithuania

2
Contents
  1. The background of the winter storm study
  2. The storm event in January 2005
  3. Impacts sectoral examples
  4. Responses
  5. Lessons

3
Purpose of the winter storm case study
  • To make climate change concrete
  • Look at climate change adaptation from
    present-day climate variability perspective
    (instead of future climate according to models)
  • To engage ASTRA project partners in a shared task
  • Demonstrate both shared and specific challenges
    of CC adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region one
    storm leads to different outcomes in different
    regional contexts
  • Use the case study for learning what lessons can
    we draw from the event?

4
Method
  • A questionnaire to the ASTRA network on country-
    and region-specific impacts of the storm
  • Questionnaire complemened by other existing
    sources (reports, inquiries to experts and
    authorities)
  • Valuable input and in-depth studies by ASTRA
    project partners - Thank you!
  • Web-based demonstration will be developed based
    on the results

5
Gudrun a.k.a. Erwin
  • The winter storm in January 2005 was an extreme
    weather event that affected almost all of the
    participating countries around the Baltic sea.
  • The storm was exceptional (extent, damages) for
    the Baltic Sea Region fiercest event since 1969
  • Still, it was less damaging than the 1999 storms
    Lothar Martin in western Europe

6
Gudrun (Erwin)storm path 8.-11.1.2005
7
Major storms track and land cover 1998-2002
LähdeSaurí ym. 2003
8
Storm risk
  • Storm risk patterns in Europe mapped by the ESPON
    1.3.1 Hazards project
  • Exposure Storm paths
  • Damage potential Population density assets at
    risk

9
Was the winter storm caused by climate change?
  • It would certainly be exaggerating to develop
    horror scenarios for Europe as a result of
    climate change However, there is no doubt
    that in a warmer climate it will be necessary to
    expect much more frequent and more intensive
    windstorm and severe storm events
  • Münich Re Winter Storms in Europe (II) Analysis
    of 1999 losses and loss potentials

10
Changing storm frequency
  • Lithuania has met with ten major storms in the
    last 50 years
  • ? each of these storms have been considered a
    once in a hundred years event
  • Expectation 1/100 yrs return period (1 yearly
    risk)
  • Recent reality 1/5 yrs return period (20 yearly
    risk)
  • (Source Eurosion project 2000)

11
Impacts of the storm
  • 17 people died
  • hundreds of thousands people affected
  • Damages estimated at EUR 2.5 billion
  • Wide range of impacts in the BSR countries
  • Sectors most affected
  • Natural resources (esp. forestry)
  • Energy production and distribution
  • Transport and Communications
  • Spatial development infrastructure

12
Turku, Finland
13
Pärnu, Estonia
14
Forest damages in Sweden
  • Sweden heavily affected
  • 75 Million cubic metres of forest damaged
  • Equal to the normal annual timber harvest
  • Are monoculture forests resilient?

15
Forestry loss categories
  • Additional cost of harvesting the fallen trees
  • Revenues lost as the price for timber falls as
    markets are overloaded
  • Reforestation of totally damaged areas
  • Costs of restoring the infrastructure related to
    forest management
  • Costs of aero surveilance and inventory
  • Source Estonian WSS study (Kont et al. 2006)

16
Energy power cuts
  • Estonia Interruption of electricity supplies to
    5,500 electricity stations which make up 30 of
    the country's network
  • Latvia the storm affected 60 of the countrys
    territory, cutting 40 population from power
    23-day emergency
  • Lithuania network came close to collapse 1,4
    million people affected
  • Sweden some 730 000 people affected. total
    number of power-cut days were counted to add up
    to 2,3 million
  • Finland Loviisa nuclear power plant closure
    threatened
  • Denmark wind power turbines closed down

17
Restoring power (e.g. Latvia)
18
Coastal erosion
  • Shoreline affected throughout the southern coasts
    of the study area
  • Different sensitivities of different locations
    (sediment)
  • Effects most severe in Latvia
  • Increased water level and wave action together
    affected the coastlines of Germany, Poland and
    Lithuania, too.

19
Tulvariskien huomioiminen maankäytön
suunnittelussa jää kauaksi Suurtulvatyöryhmän
esittämästä tasosta.
1
20
The costs
  • Total costs estimated at 2,42 billion euros
  • of which 1,6 billion euros was insured
  • the 40th costliest insurance loss since 1970
  • (Source Swiss Re 2006)
  • Remember not everything is reflected in the
    costs!

21
EUSF assistance
  • European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) is a
    special fund created in 2002 to assist EU Member
    states recover form major disasters
  • EUSF provided ca. 93 M in assistance
  • Sweden received 82 M (total damages at 2 300 M)
  • Latvia received 9,5 M (damages 192 M)
  • Estonias share was 1,3 M (damages 48 M)
  • Lithuania received 400 000 (total damages 15
    M)

22
Responses to the storm
  • Early warning systems improvements
  • Improvements in communication systems initiated
    (e.g. Swedish forestry agency web pages for
    forest owners)
  • Technical preparedness (e.g. power generators for
    important sectors in Latvia)
  • Monitoring activities (e.g. Lithuanian coast)
  • Institutional initiatives (e.g. Espoo flood
    group,, Latvian Ministry of Interior)
  • regulatory initiatives (e.g. Stockholm county
    Electricity supply rules for entreprises)

23
Institutional responseexample from Latvia
  • Latvian Ministry of Interior initiative
  • Improve the coordination between state
    institutions and local municipalities, declare
    responsibilities of each institution
  • Budget planning to reserve funding to be
    available in the case of storms, flooding and
    similar hazards
  • Develop a system of public training and education
    in the area of civil defence
  • Increase applied research to develop the optimal
    system of hazard mitigation have been underlined.
  • Improve work in hazard identification within the
    Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology
    Agency.

24
ConclusionBefore the next storm, lets
  • Engage in planned adaptation increase adaptive
    capacity, not only emergency rescue operations
  • Improve early warning systems and immediate
    response capacity (rescue services)
  • Improve communication channels between officials
    and towards the public
  • Co-operate on sectoral strategies both public
    private sectors
  • Improve documentation of storm effects more
    uniform, publicly available data would enhance
    analysis and learning
  • Initiate institutional measures to address
    resources and responsibilities of institution
    (state vs. municipality vs. private sector)
  • Raise awareness on changing return periods for
    storms
  • Study International EU-level responses in the
    BSR

25
Thank you for your attention!
  • Helsinki University of Technology (TKK)
  • Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (YTK)
  • ASTRA team
  • Lasse Peltonen, Simo Haanpää, Samuli Lehtonen
  • Contact
  • Lasse.Peltonen_at_tkk.fi
  • Simo.Haanpaa_at_tkk.fi
  • Samuli.Lehtonen_at_tkk.fi
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