Space Weather: Needs and Users

1
Space Weather Needs and Users

• D.A. Biesecker
• NOAA/Space Environment Center

2
Outline

• A quick, general, introduction to space weather
• The 3 space weather scales
• Wheres the biggest interest lately? Aviation
  and human space flight
• Polar routes
• Commercial human space flight
• Moon and Mars
• Some SEC and Space Weather Specifics
• Product growth, tracking customers
• Service Assessment
• Lessons learned
• How other research missions were incorporated
  into the forecast center
• What SEC needs the most
• The Big List
• What we expect from SDO
• Immediate impact longer term utility
• Suggest a name for the GOES-R (and all future)
  SXI (it will be an EUV imager)
• Due by 9am Friday

3
SEC and Space Weather ProductsProducts and
Services
NOAA Space Weather Scales

• Similar to Hurricane and Tornado
• intensity scales (1 thru 5)
• Saffir-Simpson (1969)
• Fujita scale (1971)
• Three Categories
• Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale
• Caused by enhancements in Solar Wind
• Ground-based magnetometer deviations
• Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale
• Caused by Particle Events
• Energetic Proton Flux on GOES
• Radio Blackouts, R-scale
• Caused by Solar Flares
• Solar X-Ray Flux on GOES

4
Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

• Power systems widespread voltage control
  problems protective system problems transformer
  damage grid collapse and blackouts.
• Spacecraft operations surface charging problems
  with orientation uplink/downlink problems
  satellite drag and tracking problems.
• Other systems pipeline currents can reach
  hundreds of amps HF (high frequency) radio
  propagation may be impossible in many areas for
  one to two days satellite navigation may be
  degraded for days low-frequency radio navigation
  can be out for hours aurora.

5
Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale)

• Biological Radiation hazard to astronauts
  (especially during EVA radiation exposure in
  commercial jets (mostly high latitudes)

• Satellite operations satellites may be rendered
  useless memory impacts can cause loss of
  control serious noise in image data
  star-trackers unable to locate sources permanent
  damage to solar panels

• Other systems complete, often prolonged (days)
  of blackout of HF (high frequency) communications
  in polar regions position errors make navigation
  operations extremely difficult

6
Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (R Scale)

• High Frequency Radio mariners and aviators
  communication degraded or blacked out
• Navigation low frequency signals used by
  mariners and aviators degraded or blacked out
  satellite navigation errors

7
SEC and Space Weather ProductsProducts and
Services

• SEC produces 42 Alert products

Watches expected disturbances, events that
are forecast (i.e. The conditions are favorable
for occurrence) Warnings disturbances that are
imminent, likely, expected in the near future
with high probability Alerts observed
conditions meeting or exceeding thresholds Summar
ies report issued as storm thresholds
change/end- of-event
8
Aviation

• Lots of recent activity and focus on aviation
  customers.
• Workshops with FAA, Airline reps, dispatchers,
  and pilot and steward unions
• Polar flights
• Health issues
• SEC visits to airline headquarters
• Resulted in better understanding among all
  parties
• SEC knows airline needs
• Airlines more familiar with space weather
• 1 new product
• Including space tourism and VSE

9
SPACE WEATHER EFFECTSONPOLAR OPERATIONS
Excerpts from a talk given by UAL representatives

• Len Salinas
• Manager QA Dispatch Operations
• Chairman - Dispatch Safety Awareness Program
• Eric Richardson
• Aviation Meteorologist
• February 23, 2004

10
UAL Operations USA to Hong Kong/China

• Polar routes provide time savings and convenience
  to our customers
• Note, other airlines, notably NWA also have
  significant presence in polar operations
• UAL Changes over the last 8 years
• Eight years ago - Fly through 2 cities and take
  all day
• Today - Cooperation with multiple countries and
  agencies this can now be done in 16 hours, flying
  over the North Pole - Russia - China
• Growth in number of flights
• 1999 UAL operated 12 Polar demo flights
• 2000 UAL operated 253 Polar flights
• 2001 UAL operated 466 Polar flights
• 2002 and 2003 UAL operated over 600 Polar flights

11
Aviation

• Aviation interests are significantly impacted
• by solar radiation storms
• Radiation storms create a communications
• problem and a biological threat.

Polar flights departing from North America use
VHF (30-300 MHz) comm with Canadian ATCs. Flights
will continue using VHF with Arctic Radio, but
soon switch to HF (3 30 MHz). SATCOM is
considered a backup during polar flights, but it
is rarely available above 82 degrees north
latitude.
12
Contingency

• If problems detected prior to departure, Russian
  Far East Route selected
• If problem occurs before reaching the polar area,
  the flight is re-routed. This option likely
  results in an unplanned fuel stop typically
  Alaska.
• If the problem occurs after the aircraft has
  entered the area, the flight continues.

13
Polar Operations Support

• Meteorology and Dispatch Joint Effort
• Polar Package
• Space Weather
• Jointly determined that events S3 (gt1000 pfu gt10
  MeV) and greater are cause for concern
• Flight planning begins 8 hours out
• select 3 routes depending on weather, other
  constraints

14
Space Weather Aviation Webpage
NOAA Scales Maximum in
Currently
past 24-hours Geomagnetic Storms
minor none Solar
Radiation Storms none
none Radio Blackouts
moderate
moderate
24 Hour Forecast Space weather for the next 24
hours is expected to be extreme. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G5 level are expected. Solar
radiation storms reaching the S3 level are
expected. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level
are expected.
T O D A Y S S P A C E W E A T H E R
Watches, Warnings, Alerts, and Summaries Issue
Time 2004 Feb 24 1713 UTCALERT X-Ray Flux
exceeded M5Threshold Reached 2004 Feb 24 1712
UTC
Radio Blackout Plot
Polar Plot
15
Selected Solar Activity Affected Polar Flights

• Aug 16-17, 2001 New York and Chicago to Hong Kong
• JFK and ORD to HKG flights operated on Polar 4
  (instead of Polar 2 and 3) both days. Average
  penalty of 30 minutes and 15,000 pounds of denied
  payload
• Oct 19, 2003 UAL 801 New York to Tokyo
• Flight time increased 34 minutes and 10,700
  pounds fuel added, with 7500 pounds cargo denied
• Oct 19, 2003 UAL 851 Chicago to Beijing
• Flight time increased 25 minutes and 7,600 pounds
  fuel added
• Oct 24, 2003 UAL 895 Chicago to Hong Kong
• Flight time increased 31 minutes and 8,300
  gallons fuel added and 9100 pounds cargo denied

16
(No Transcript)
17
Cost Impacts

• Airlines tell us typical cost per flight due to
  space weather event is 10k-100k
• March 30-April 21, 2001
• UAL had 25 affected flights
• My estimates of the itemized cost to airlines
• Cargo
• 1000/ton highly variable
• Fuel
• 3.50/gallon highly volatile

18
Back to some general SEC stuff

• Product growth
• Customers?
• Impossible to capture true number of customers
• NWS Service Assessment

19
Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued
during Solar Cycle 23

• The number of products above does not include
  the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time
  solar wind data sets, which account for over 14
  million file transfers per month
• Over 400 event-driven products were issued
  during each of the solar minimum years (1996
  1997)

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https//pss.sec.noaa.gov/
Service Begins
Lockheed Martin Management
NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are
distributed by lead organizations to sister
agencies and subordinate groups
NASDA (Japan) Mission Control
CSA (Canada) Mission Control

• NASA Mission Control
• NASA Management
• Flight Control
• Biomedical Engineers
• Surgeon

ESA (Europe) Mission Control
NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group
RSA (Russia) Mission Control
NOAA/SEC Radiation Alert/Warning
Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems
21

• 46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web
  Site
• 35 updating Plots,
• 8 real-time lists
• 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking,
  and current conditions "dials"

• Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data
• A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded
  from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly
  25,000 unique customers
• SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE
  RTSW data display files every month.

ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top
users Japan U.S. Government .com
(commercial) United Kingdom Education .net
(commercial) Germany Russia Australia
Belgium
22
List of recipients for NOAA SEC Alerts
Warnings (distributed by JSC NASA)
23
http//www.sec.noaa.gov/AboutSEC/SWstorms_assessme
nt.pdf

• 17 X-ray flares
• 2 ICMEs transited in 19 hrs
• ACE capabilities degraded
• Over 270 watches, warnings
• and alerts
• Radio Blackout alerts 17
• Geomag. storm alerts 41
• Radiation storm alerts 31
• Over 300 media contacts

24
SEC Space Weather AdvisoryOfficial Space Weather
Advisory issued by NOAA Space Environment Center,
Boulder, Colorado, USASPACE WEATHER ADVISORY
BULLETIN 03- 2 2003 October 21 at 0611 p.m.
MDT (2003 October 22 0011 UTC)

• INTENSE ACTIVE REGIONS EMERGE ON SUN
• Two very dynamic centers of activity have emerged
  on the sun. NOAA Region 484 developed rapidly
  over the past three days and is now one of the
  largest sunspot clusters to emerge during Solar
  Cycle 23, approximately 10 times larger than
  Earth. This region, which is nearing the center
  of the solar disk, already produced a major flare
  (category R3 Radio Blackout on the NOAA Space
  Weather Scales) on 19 October at 1650 UTC. The
  region continues to grow, and additional
  substantial flare activity is likely.
• A second intense active region is rotating around
  the southeast limb of the sun. Though the sunspot
  group is not yet visible, two powerful eruptions
  occurred on 21 October as seen from the LASCO
  instrument on the SOHO spacecraft. These
  eruptions may herald the arrival of a volatile
  active center with the potential to impact
  various Earth systems.
• Further major eruptions are possible from these
  active regions as they rotate across the face of
  the sun over the next two weeks. Agencies
  impacted by solar flare radio blackouts,
  geomagnetic storms, and solar radiation storms
  may experience disruptions over this two-week
  period. These include satellite and other
  spacecraft operations, power systems, HF
  communications, and navigation systems.

25
One way forecasters respond

• GOES/XRS automated flare detection various
  thresholds audible alarm and text display
• GOES/SXI automated flare location text
  display
• Check of other sources LASCO, Type II
• HALO CME e-mail list or do their own speed
  calculation. Assess event size, direction,
  morphology
• Check Major Events Database what did other
  events like this do
• Issue Watch

26
Major Events Database

• X17 Flare Oct 28
• The extreme magnitude and speed of the event led
  the forecasters to examine the historical record
  to provide some guidance for the likely Sun-Earth
  transit time. It was found that the fastest
  Sun-Earth transit of a CME observed to date for
  the current solar cycle was 28 hours, from the X5
  flare on July 14, 2000. Forecasters expected this
  CME transit to be even faster, and predicted a
  transit time of 24 hours. Geomagnetic storm
  watches were issued predicting the strongest
  geomagnetic storm of Solar Cycle 23.
• X8 Flare Nov 2
• Historical data revealed that the geomagnetic
  response from large CMEs that originated from
  near the west limb varied dramatically. Given the
  intensity of the recent storms, forecasters
  predicted another severe storm with an onset in
  less than 25 hours. Updated LASCO imagery on
  November 03 (Figure 6), revealed that while there
  was an Earth-directed component (full halo CME
  was identified), most of the ejecta were directed
  away from Earth an impact was likely, but the
  storming would be considerably less than
  initially expected. Also significant was the
  deceleration of the CME as it moved away from the
  Sun. The initial prediction for a lt25 hour
  arrival was changed to 40 hours. A short-lived
  geomagnetic storm began early on November 04
  (36.5 hour transit) and briefly reached severe
  levels before quickly subsiding.

27
An All Clear Forecast

• X28 Nov 4, 2003
• Airline dispatchers assumed that S3 level would
  be exceeded
• From source location, West Limb, forecasters
  advised airlines that S3 threshold would not be
  reached
• Thus, airlines could fly their optimal polar
  routes.
• Maximum storm size - S2

28
Service Assessment Findings

• Finding (1 out of 9) Significant shortfalls
  exist in warning and forecast capability due to
  inadequate models and tools to derive forecast
  products. There is currently limited capability
  to warn for solar flare radio blackouts, high
  energy radiation storms, and many other aspects
  of space weather.
• The recent activity highlighted the need for the
  following models (2 of 6)
• Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation - CME
  characterization (mass, speed, direction, and
  magnetic structure) for predicting time of CME
  arrival and onset and intensity of geomagnetic
  storming.
• Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) - SEP spectra for
  airlines, satellite anomaly, and manned space
  flight hazard prediction. Airline companies and
  satellite operators requested more detailed SEP
  onset time and duration predictions.

29
Lessons Learned

• How and why some missions are useful
• Or why forecasters use their data
• ACE we planned for this one
• SOHO produced some surprises

30
Lessons Learned - ACE

• Keys to forecast center use
• Reliability 24/7
• Latency commensurate with timescale of
  alert/warning/forecast
• First data in 1997
• Worked before launch to ensure continuous receipt
  of data directly to the forecast center
• Global ground station network meets this need
• Magnetometer and solar wind data were expected to
  be used
• Bz, VSW
• Proof of concept for operations
• ACE follow-on mission being studied (BAA)

31
ACE unexpected uses

• ACE/EPAM proton data
• Energetic Ion Enhancement (EIE)
• signature of approaching magnetic cloud
• Forecasters need to do forecast specific studies
• Forecasters need to understand the
  science/methodology
• Avoid confusion with CIR signature

32
Transient Shocks

• Shock accelerated protons move ahead of the
  source, seen at L1 hours before transient arrival
  
• Allows forecaster to monitor approach of shock
• As shock approaches, flux of accelerated
  particles increases
• EIE typically peaks with the shock arrival
• Peak in EIE flux believed to correlate with
  geomagnetic response
• Can we use EIE flux as a predictor of geomagnetic
  activity from transients?
• Define an appropriate EIE threshold to forecast
  major to severe geomagnetic storming

33
Forecast Study

• Reviewed EPAM data (47-65 keV) Apr 98 - Dec 00
• EIE flux of 104 particle flux units (pfu) marked
  onset of event
• Recorded EIE event particulars (peak flux and
  timing) and corresponding Kp/Ap (Potsdam)
• Identified EIE sources and categorized into
  Transient, High Speed Stream (HSS), Unknown, or
  Exclude
• Recorded a total of 113 events
• 83 Transients, 21 HSS, 5 Unknown, 4 Exclude
• Used the Transients and Unknown (88 events) to
  compute statistics
• Correlated peak EIE flux with geomagnetic
  response
• 5 ? 105 pfu best threshold to predict
  major-severe storms

34

Study Results
EIE Max ? 5 ? 105
35
Timing

• Time from EIE event onset (104 pfu) to shock
  ranged from 0 - 36 hours
• Highly dependent on peak EIE flux
• EIE peak typically coincident with shock arrival
  at L1
• Largest Kp values occurred up to 22 hours after
  EIE peak
• Maximum running Ap typically observed in first 24
  hours following EIE peak, but up to 42 hours
  after peak

36
Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models
Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data
37
Lessons Learned - SOHO

• Reliability and Latency issues are key
• Reliability mostly good
• Latency - good
• SOHO team sold the utility of the data to SEC
• Jan 1997 event a prime example

38
Lessons Learned - SOHO

• Currently use EIT, LASCO and MDI
• Less use of EIT now that GOES/SXI is operational
• Worked with SOHO teams to ensure rapid access to
  data and for simple analysis tools
• Happened slowly over time
• Auto-ftp gif images directly from SOHO operations
  center
• LASCO team issues Halo CME alerts with relevant
  measurements
• Assumed source location, velocity, PA
• Not always in the time needed, so SEC does its
  own analysis

39
The big list

• A list of the highest priority needs
• As identified by a survey of forecasters
• Latest version completed Feb, 2006
• Not a complete list of needs
• I just got this latest list, so Im not sure of
  the specifics for some of these

40
SEC Highest Priority Operational Needs

• Solar energetic particle event forecasts
• including start time, end time, peak flux, time
  of peak flux, spectra, fluence, and probability
  of occurrence
• Geomagnetic indices (e.g., Ap, Kp, Dst) and
  probability forecasts
• Background solar wind prediction
• Solar wind data from L1
• Solar coronagraph data
• Energetic electron flux prediction for
  International Space Station
• Regional geomagnetic activity nowcasts and
  forecasts
• Ionospheric maps of TEC and scintillation
  (real-time and future)
• Solar particle degradation of polar HF radio
  propagation

41
SEC High Priority Operational Needs

• Improved image analysis capability (e.g., for
  GOES-N SXI, STEREO, SDO)
• Short-term (days) F10.7 forecasts
• Short-term (days) X-ray flare forecasts
• EUV index
• Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days) based
  on CME observations, coronal hole observations,
  solar magnetic observations, and ACE/EPAM
  observations
• Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary
  space (e.g. view from above the ecliptic tracking
  an ICME)
• Geomagnetic storm end-time forecast
• Real-time estimates of geomagnetic indices
• Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of
  all warning/watch/forecast products
• Routine statistical and/or numerical guidance for
  all forecast quantities
• e.g., climatological forecasts of flares,
  geomagnetic indices and probabilities, and
  F10.7similar to NWS Model Output Statistics
• Magnetopause crossing forecasts based on L1 data

42
Proton event prediction

• Lots of new data since the operational model was
  last updated (1998)
• A little activity in this area working on
  validating some of the model outputs (e.g.
  gt100MeV)
• CME speed is a good discriminator (1200 km/s)
• Represents a real, significant need in the
  operational community (viz Oct-Nov effects)
• Airlines want 8 hr lead time
• Okay, not realistic but better ability to predict
  event peak fluxes and event duration would be
  worthwhile
• Maybe we can do 8 hr lead on exceeding a
  threshold for certain events
• The demand for better energetic particle
  prediction can only increase in the future

43
Solar wind structure

• Coronal holes (high speed streams) are the main
  driver of geomagnetic activity during the
  declining phase of the cycle
• Solar sector boundaries are also important
• Wang-Sheeley-Arge model is a good start, but
  needs more development
• Better modeling could significantly improve
  forecasting the onset of activity
• Provides an important context for CMEs
• CME acceleration/deceleration depends on the
  pre-existing ambient solar wind into which it
  flows

44
SDO

• Our ability to use these data depends on
• Utility thats where the science (and you)
  comes in
• Reliability not an issue
• Latency not an issue
• Long lifetime a huge asset
• Although we expect more from STEREO, we consider
  it limited due to the short lifetime.
• Bottom line is, forecasters will use it if it
  helps them

45
Themes of the AIA

• Energy input, storage, and release the 3-D
  dynamic coronal structure
• 3D configuration of the solar corona mapping
  magnetic free energy evolution of the corona
  towards unstable configurations the life-cycle
  of atmospheric field
• Coronal heating and irradiance thermal structure
  and emission
• Contributions to solar (E)UV irradiance by types
  of features physical properties of
  irradiance-modulating features physical models
  of the irradiance-modulating features
  physics-based predictive capability for the
  spectral irradiance
• Transients sources of radiation and energetic
  particles
• Unstable field configurations and initiation of
  transients evolution of transients early
  evolution of CMEs particle acceleration
• Connections to geospace material and magnetic
  field output of the Sun
• Dynamic coupling of the corona and heliosphere
  solar wind energetics propagation of CMEs and
  related phenomena vector field and velocity
• Coronal seismology a new diagnostic to access
  coronal physics
• Evolution, propagation, and decay of transverse
  and longitudinal waves probing coronal physics
  with waves the role of magnetic topology in wave
  phenomena

All of the themes have Space Weather implications
46
Objectives of the HMI

• Convection-zone dynamics and the solar dynamo
• Evolution of meridional circulation solar cycle
  prediction
• Origin and evolution of sunspots, active regions
  and complexes of activity
• Active region source and evolution sunspot
  lifetime next day probabilities
• Sources and drivers of solar activity and
  disturbances
• Origin and dynamics of magnetic sheared
  structures and d-type sunspots magnetic
  configuration and mechanisms of flares and CMEs
  improved predictions of flares and maybe even
  CMEs
• Links between the internal processes and dynamics
  of the corona and heliosphere
• Coronal magnetic structure and solar wind solar
  wind important as cause of geomagnetic storms and
  the influence on ICMEs
• Precursors of solar disturbances for space
  weather forecasts.
• Far-side imaging and active index determination
  of magnetic cloud Bs events longer lead time
  forecasting, improved geomagnetic storm forecasts

All of the themes have Space Weather implications
47
How well use AIA and HMI

• AIA
• Backup to SXI
• during eclipse season
• Possibility that GOES-12 SXI will die and GOES-N
  will not be made operational immediately
• Flare location? (USAF)
• 10s vs 60s
• CME signatures
• Waves, dimmings
• HMI
• Far-side imaging

48
How wed like to use AIA and HMI

• 10 sec cadence precursors or unique signatures
• Well need automated feature recognition
• Robust, few false alarms, easily validated
• Identifying the magnetic field configurations
  which lead to CMEs, filament eruptions and
  flares
• Emerging flux/ARs actual lead time for flare
  and CME forecasts

49
Event detection needed!

• Automated event detection will be a necessity
• Automatically identify when something significant
  happens i.e. event detection, favorable
  conditions
• There is way too much SDO data for the forecaster
  to be able to watch for everything
• Flares, waves, dimmings, precursors, emerging
  flux
• Otherspretty much anything you can imagine

50
Additional AIA uses

• Show us whether we need to improve
  spatial/temporal resolution of future GOES SXI
• Calibration/tracking of GOES SXI
• New insight into phenomena we are interested in?
• Flare precursors
• CME diagnostics

• Flare location
• Coronal Hole area/location
• Active Region area/complexity
• Returning active regions
• CME diagnostics

51
A brief summary

• SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, SOLAR-B
• Show us what well need for the next generation
  of operational instruments
• Benefit forecasters significantly
• Its often difficult to know how useful theyll
  be
• However, there are certain hurdles which must be
  overcome for the data to even have the potential
  to be useful

52
Current Forecast Capabilities

• 30 day climatology
• 1 day persistence
• skill.
• The average accuracy of the forecasts in the
  sample relative to the accuracy of forecasts
  produced by a reference method. Examples of a
  suitable reference include forecasts of
  recurrence, persistence, sample climatology, or
  the output of a forecast model. Skill can be
  measured by any number of so-called skill scores.
  

53
SDO
54
(No Transcript)
55
NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an absolute
requirement to support worldwide DoD operations
gt80 of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on
NOAA data
NOAA/SEC Data (Primarily Satellite)
STRATCOM
Space Command
USAF Air Force Weather Agency
Army and Navy Operations
Missile Defense Agency
National Reconnaissance Office
U.S. Northern Command and NORAD
Joint Space Ops Center
- Critical loss of radar target
tracking or creates false targets
- Launch trajectory errors payload deployment
problems - Direct radiation hazard
to high altitude aircrews - HF
radio blackouts comm impact to sensitive
operations - SATCOM
interference/downlink problems -
Impede SAR (search rescue) operations
National Security Impacts