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Beyond Kyoto: Concerns for Africa

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20-21 October, 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Energy & Development Research Centre ... Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive sectors ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Beyond Kyoto: Concerns for Africa


1
Beyond Kyoto Concerns for Africa
Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON Director African CDM
Training workshop and preparatory meeting for
UNFCCC COP 9 20-21 October, 2003, Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia
Energy Development Research Centre University
of Cape Town
2
Global Trends in Climate Change Debate
  • Different developmental status strongly linked
    to cumulative/future GHG emissions, but CO2 is
    still the problem
  • Sharing of climate change burden
  • Who should pay and amount?
  • Who should receive the payment?
  • Assessments of costs Annex 1 and non Annex 1
    differs
  • Mitigation
  • Adaptation
  • In-action
  • Multiple dividends
  • Penalties

3
North South Perspectives
  • North Issues
  • Emissions reduction
  • Cost Effectiveness
  • Cost of Mitigation
  • RD Technology Diffusion
  • North Strategies
  • Emissions Trading/JI/CDM/
  • Carbon Tax
  • Corporate Sector participation
  • Technology Cooperation
  • South Issues
  • Development is Priority
  • Precautionary Principle
  • Equity concerns
  • South Strategies
  • Development-Climate change links
  • Capacity building
  • Technology transfer
  • Vulnerability Adaptation

4
Specific African Issues with link to CC
  • Poverty reduction
  • Worsening environmental problems
  • Lowest user of modern energy services
  • Extremely weak negotiating capacities
  • Low GHG emitter
  • Poor and weak integration among institutions
  • Links between analytical and decision making
    improving but needs attention

5
Comparing AI and NAI emissions
ANNUAL EMISSIONS, 1998
CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS 1900- 1999
Non-Annex I 19
Non-Annex I 43
Annex I 81
Annex I 57
Data source CDIAC, analysis by EDRC students
6
Total CO2 emission from fuel combustion, 2000
African total
DR Congo
Ghana
South Africa
Brazil
India
China
UK
Russia
Germany
USA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
MtCO2
Source IEA 2002
7
Outlook for the future
Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010
linear growth estimation)
40
35
30
global
25
20
developed countries
15
10
developing countries
5
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Data source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
8
Outlook for the future
Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010
linear growth estimation)
6000.0
5000.0
global
4000.0
3000.0
developed countries
2000.0
1000.0
developing countries
0.0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Data source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
9
Key Elements in Designing Future Commitments
  • Environmental Integrity
  • Overall emissions cap share of emissions by
    regions
  • Equity
  • Burden sharing (linked to emissions per
    region-country capita
  • Developmental status
  • Economic /Technological Feasibility and
    Efficiency
  • Technological development
  • Linkage to the economic development
  • Emissions trading for efficiency

10
A variety of different approaches
  • Some approaches are top-down, focus on long-term
    vision and global by design
  • Per capita
  • Brazilian proposal
  • Full extension of Kyoto
  • Others are bottom-up, focus on short-term steps
  • Emission intensity (starts from GDP) could be
    global?
  • Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive
    sectors
  • used for EU and research on global extension
  • Multi-stage approaches
  • Sectoral CDM / SD-PAMs
  • The challenge can we find a logical, top-down
    and long-term resolution that is expected to be
    practised in a bottom up regime

11
Per capita allocations
  • Instead of grandfathering emissions and sharing
    burden, start from entitlement of each person
  • Equal right of each person to use the atmosphere
    (global commons)
  • Contraction Convergence one example
  • Contract to limit global GHG emissions
  • Converge on equal per capita emissions
  • Linked to IET could give many DCs large
    allowances
  • National circumstances
  • resource endowment

12
Brazilian proposal
  • NEED MORE FROM THE OFFICAL PROPOSAL
  • Share emission reductions based on relative
    responsibility for global temperature increase
    (?T)
  • Complex calculations back to concentrations and
    emissions
  • Originally applied only to Annex I
  • But since considered extension
  • Only approach officially proposed to UNFCCC
    Parties
  • Only energy CO2, no deforestation, other gases?

13
Emissions intensity
  • Major part of GHG emissions is closely related to
    GDP
  • Fixed emission targets generate risk
  • Hot air, in the case of lower-than-expected
    economic growth, harms environmental
    effectiveness
  • Severe economic constraints, in the case of
    higher-than-expected economic growth, could
    result in non-compliance
  • Emissions intensity target Reduction of ratio of
    GHG per unit GDP (CO2-eq / )
  • Not the same emissions intensity for all DCs
  • But perhaps a uniform percentage decrease from
    each countrys own emissions intensity ?
  • Not inherently softer or harder than a
    top-down allocation
  • Depends on stringency of both

14
Extending Kyoto (fixed targets)
  • Form of target in Kyoto average 5 reduction
    below 1990 levels
  • Grandfathers emissions by country
  • Sets absolute number of tons of GHG emissions
  • Possibility to join Annex I by
  • Notification by the Party (voluntary commitment)
  • Decision by the COP to amend Annex I
  • Advantage known QUELROs and framework of KP
  • Building on existing instruments
  • Flexible mechanisms
  • Reporting and monitoring system
  • But is it conceivable to extend this to 150
    countries?

15
SD-PAMs
  • Sustainable development policies and measures
  • Commitment to implement a set of PAMs motivated
    primarily by SD, but that also achieve some ERs
  • Outline development objectives and identify more
    sustainable path
  • Quantify both SD benefits and changes in GHG
    emissions
  • Report under National Communications or FCCC
    registry
  • Key issues
  • Funding Build on existing commitments in
    Convention Article 4.1b and Protocol Article 10
  • Establishing national baseline emissions
  • Agreeing on what qualifies as SD-PAM
  • Under FCCC, no new agreement needed
  • Can happen in parallel and may be a useful
    transition process

16
Possible corridors to stabilization
14
13
12
550
11
10
Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions (GtC)
9
8
7
450
6
5
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source of stabilization paths IPCC WGIII chapter
2, post SRES scenarios, CO2 only
17
Multi-stage approaches
  • Current strong division AI / NAI
  • Incentive to join Annex I emissions trading
  • Disincentive G77 solidarity
  • CC requires all DCs to join at once
  • 49 LDCs together add 0.5 of annual global CO2
  • Multiple stages
  • Annex I countries continue with emission
    reduction commitments
  • Non-annex I countries move through steps, e.g.
  • No commitment
  • Reduce emission intensity
  • Stabilise emissions
  • Share in emission reductions (den Elzen 2002)
  • Triggers
  • Particular years
  • Thresholds
  • E.g. GDP / cap
  • E.g. Emissions per capita
  • Source Hoehne presentation, Ecofys

18
Equity as a Principle
  • Fair allocation of costs of preventing further
    climate change (mitigation costs)
  • Fair allocation of costs of adapting to climate
    change (adaptation costs)
  • Fair process of agreeing internationally how to
    determine costs
  • Fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions in
    the long-term and in a transition phase
  • Review of equity in IPCC TAR WG3
  • Context of development, equity and
    sustainability
  • Multi-faceted allocation, outcome, process,
    rights, liability, poverty, and opportunity,
    reflecting the diverse expectations of fairness
    used to judge policy processes and the
    corresponding outcomes
  • Quality of being fair or impartial something
    that is fair or just

19
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20
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21
World Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe)
Source WEO, 2001
22
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23
Comparison of CO2 Emissions in Fossil Fuel Plants
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
Series1
CO2 Emissions kgCO2/MWh
200
100
0
Coal CHP
Gas CHP
turbine
turbine
Clean Coal fired
Coal-fired steam
Gas Combined Cycle
Coalgasification/steam
24
Efficiency and CO2 Emissions and Power Plants
1400
IGCC - Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
PFBC -Pulverised Fuel Combustion
1200
COAL
1000
Steam Turbine
PFBC
IGCC
800
OIL
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Diesel enfine
600
Fuel Cell
CO2 emissions, kg/MWh
NATURAL
GAS
Diesel engine
Gas Turbine
400
Steam Turbine
Fuel Cell
Gas Turbine
Gas engine
Steam Turbine
200
Fuel Cell
0
30
40
50
60
70
Efficiency()
25
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26
New Options
  • Natural gas fired combined cycles are preffered
    because of low costs, high efficiency, low
    environmental impacts
  • Co-generation is cost-effective especially when
    used in the form of gas turbines and combined
    cycles
  • Fuel cells for small power generation
  • Coal gasification can lead to power production
    integrated gasifier combined cycles (IGCC)
  • Use of Renewable Energy Technologies
  • Promotion of energy efficiency

27
Elements of Technology Protocol
  • Technology transfer incentives High quality
    energy technologies
  • Agreement on reducing energy intensity energy
    use per product
  • A converging range
  • Time allowance
  • Sector dependent
  • Agreement on overall efficiency per sector
    (range)
  • Agreement on dematerialization trends (range)
  • Agreement on fuel efficiency

28
Critical Issues for Energy Development in Africa
  • Linking global and local environmental issues
  • Search for win-win solutions
  • Search for trade-offs
  • Substantial increase in energy access
  • Abundant reserves
  • Search for technologies
  • Search for investments
  • Energy security
  • Control outside interests
  • Linking to environmental security

29
Energy Development Research Centre University
of Cape Town,
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