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Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for 2009-2011 August 6, 2008

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Trends in technology and market opportunity ... down demands and effects on market partners and customers. To minimize market disruption, large ramp-ups should ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for 2009-2011 August 6, 2008


1
Comments for Workshop on EEU Budget for
2009-2011 August 6, 2008
2
Outline of Presentation
  • The Boards Questions to Efficiency Vermont
  • Efficiency Vermonts Approach to the Boards
    Questions
  • Approach to Ramp-up Response
  • Efficiency Vermonts Ramp-up Response
  • Rate of Ramp-up
  • Potential Expansion Strategies
  • Potential Changes in Costs and Savings

3
The Boards Questions to EVT
  • Can EVT ramp up the delivery of energy efficiency
    services as quickly as CLF and VPIRG have
    proposed?
  • If so, what types of services would be increased
    or offered for the first time?

4
Efficiency Vermonts Approach to the Boards
Questions
  • We will seek to meet the Boards objectives for
    the EEU with whatever budget level we are
    provided.
  • Our response is preliminary we have not yet
    adequately considered all aspects of the proposed
    ramp-up, including the time necessary for
  • Planning
  • Development
  • Capacity expansion (both internal and external)

5
Our Approach to Ramp-up Response
  • We conducted rough estimate of potential costs
    and savings for 2011 at the major market level,
    including consideration of
  • Trends in technology and market opportunity
  • Recent history and expected changes in EVT cost
    / MWh
  • Potential to take target area strategies statewide

6
Summary of Efficiency Vermonts Response
  • While challenging, we believe it would be
    possible to increase spending on cost-effective
    energy efficiency by 2011 to a budget level
    commensurate with that proposed by CLF and VPIRG.

7
Ramp-Up
  • To ramp up responsibly to the 2011 budget level
    proposed by CLF and VPIRG, we suggest a ramp-up
    path that would likely rise more slowly at the
    beginning

?
85 M
?
?
30.75 M
8
Other Ramp-up Issues
  • Consider ramp-up and ramp-down demands and
    effects on market partners and customers
  • To minimize market disruption, large ramp-ups
    should be sustained for several years and if
    ramped down, at a gradual pace.
  • What planning assumptions would be made beyond
    2011?
  • Would ramped-up levels be maintained?

9
Potential Expansion Strategies
Markets Key Ramp-Up Strategies
Business Market Opportunities  
Lighting Increase incentives more upstream focus
HVAC and other Business Market opportunity Increase incentives more upstream focus
Business Retrofit More comprehensive in all retrofit markets
Largest Customers (gt 500 MWh, account- managed) Expand target area strategies statewide (Account Management)
Large Commercial (40-500 MWh) Expand target area strategies statewide (Direct Install)
Small Commercial Expand Direct Install to Small Commercial new vendor-driven options
New target / niche markets telecommunications, hospitality, data centers, others tbd
New vendor-driven target Initiatives Pay for performance for compressed air, refrigeration, farms, and other technologies and sub-markets tbd
Business New Construction Stratgeies tbd for higher market share
10
Potential Expansion Strategies
Markets Key Growth Strategies
Retail Efficient Products  
CFLs Focus on maintaining success and on specialty products with lower adoption rates
Appliances and other retail products Strategies for higher market share refrigerator turn-ins, higher tier incentives
Advanced lighting (LEDs) Phase in and aggressive promotion
Consumer electronics ENERGY STAR PCs, Smart Strips, upstream promotion
Residential Existing Homes  
Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Expand participation in HPwES
Direct Install lighting / appliances (new) Direct install in targeted communities
New technologies for electric DHW Retrofit or Direct Install
Feedback / Behavioral Tools that provide customer feedback (e.g., Blue Line Positive Energy others tbd)
Solar DHW Incentives and promotion (subject to screening)
Residential New Construction Strategies for higher market share, deeper savings
11
Supplemental and Back-up Strategies
  • Open solicitation for third-party / vendor
    proposals
  • Pay for customer energy reduction (similar to
    California 20/20) possible tie-in to smart
    meters
  • Downsize strategies (e.g., right-sizing
    equipment, smaller appliances, smaller homes)
  • Next generation, deep direct installation for
    residential and / or small business

12
Potential Changes in Costs and Savings
  • With savings from CFLs dropping, an expected
    greater reliance on measures and strategies with
    higher costs, and more aggressive strategies, the
    levelized cost of efficiency will likely
    increase. It would still remain well below
    avoided supply costs.

EVT Levelized Cost / kWh
13
Potential Change in Levelized Cost and TRB / kWh
by Major Market
14
Potential Change in Spending by Major Market
2011
2007
15
Planning for CFL Market Transformation
  • In 2007, retail CFLs accounted for
  • 46 of first-year MWh
  • 42 of Summer Peak MW
  • 26 of lifetime MWh
  • 25 of TRB
  • 14 of costs

16
Planning for CFL Market Transformation
  • EVT is collaborating in the DPS investigation of
    attribution and savings in the context of the
    rapidly changing CFL market to inform 2009-2011
    planning
  • EVTs interim planning for 2009-2011 assumes for
    Retail Efficient Products
  • 25 reduction in savings per CFL in 2009
  • 50 reduction in savings per CFL in 2010
  • 75 reduction in savings per CFL in 2011
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