Risk-Based%20Management%20of%20Hurricane%20Preparedness%20and%20Recovery%20for%20a%20Highway%20Agency

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Risk-Based Management of Hurricane Preparedness
and Recovery for a Highway Agency

• VDOT Stakeholders Workshop
• Presented by the
  Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems
• Chesapeake, Virginia
• February 28, 2000

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VDOT Steering Committee

• Virginia Department of Transportation
• Travis Bridewell
• Mac Clarke
• Perry Cogburn
• Jon DuFresne
• Stephany Hanshaw
• Steve Mondul
• Murali Rao
• Bob Rasmussen
• J.R. Robinson
• Gerald Venable
• Virginia Transportation Research Council
• Wayne Ferguson

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Workshop Invitees

• Department of Emergency Services
• Department of State Police
• Department of Environmental Quality
• Department of Health
• Department of Aviation
• Department of Rail and Public Transportation
• Virginia Port Authority
• Department of Military Affairs
• Department of Fire Programs
• Virginia National Guard
• Virginia Association of Volunteer Rescue Squads
• Virginia Power Company

Association of Independent Electric Power
Cooperatives Virginia Fire Chiefs
Association Virginia Association of Chiefs of
Police Virginia Emergency Management
Association Natural Gas Providers Oil Pipeline
Operators Military Traffic Management Command,
Ft. Eusice Telephone companies Tidewater area
local law enforcement Tidewater are hospital
representatives Red Cross
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Project Team

• Graduate Students
• Richard D. Moutoux
• Claudia P. Handal
• Undergraduate Students
• Jason W. Eshler
• Ryan M. Finseth
• Clare E. Patterson
• Faculty
• James H. Lambert, Research Assistant Professor of
  Systems Engineering
• Yacov Y. Haimes, Quarles Professor of Systems and
  Civil Engineering
• Garrick E. Louis, Assistant Professor of Systems
  Engineering
• Project web site http//www.virginia.edu/risk/re
  covery/

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Overview of Presentation

• Introduction
• Overview of engineering risk management
• Background and prior efforts
• Overview of project
• Prioritization of recovery
• Integration with the GIS
• Agency-wide HHM

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Motivation

• Restore mobility as quickly as possible
• Save lives and cost
• Justify aid from FEMA and FHWA
• Potential for 30-60 billion in losses for a
  category IV hitting Tidewater, Richmond, or
  Northern Virginia (Source Post Hurricane
  Recovery Workshop, Insurance Institute, 1997)

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Hurricane Floyd

• Hurricane Floyd hit Suffolk District in
  mid-September, causing significant flood damage
• Roads did not receive much wind damage, but
  flooding closed many roads
• Virginia did not take a direct hit from the
  winds, but was close

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Hurricane Floyd Damage
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Overview of the Risk Assessment and Management
Process
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Technological Age
Risk Management ? Optimal Balance
Uncertain Benefits
Uncertain Costs

• Technology Management
• Man/Machine/Software Systems
• Planning
• Design
• Operation

Risk Management
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Risk assessment and management must be an
integral part of the decisionmaking process
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RiskA Measure of the Probability and Severity
of Adverse Effects
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Risk vs. Safety

• Measuring risk is an empirical, quantitative,
  scientific activity (e.g., measuring the
  probability and severity of harm).
• Judging safety is judging the acceptability of
  risks -- a normative, qualitative, political
  activity. (After William W. Lowrance, 1976)

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Risk Assessment and Management

• What can go wrong?
• What is the likelihood that it will go wrong?
• What are the consequences?
• What can be done?
• What options are available and what are their
  associated trade-offs in terms of all costs,
  benefits, and risks?
• What are the impacts of current management
  decisions on future options?

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Background and Prior Efforts
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Suffolk District

• One of nine VDOT districts in the state
• Includes the Hampton Roads area, the Eastern
  Shore, Williamsburg, and west almost to I-95

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Saffir-Simpson Scale
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Hurricane History
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Retrofitting Alternatives

• Studied effects of retrofitting signs, lights,
  and signals to withstand higher winds
• Trade-off analysis compared cost of retrofitting
  with potential risk of destruction
• Four levels of retrofitting (none, 10, 20, and 40
  mph) were considered for each of the five
  hurricane categories

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Upgrading Trade-off Analysis
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Spares and Reserves Alternatives

• Studied the trade-off between holding different
  levels of inventory
• Low levels of inventory reduce present cost, but
  may delay recovery and increase costs during a
  disaster
• High levels of inventory are costly to store, may
  never be used, and may be destroyed in a disaster
  while in storage

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Investment in Spares vs. Time to Recovery (Ground
Signs)
Option3
Option2
Option1
Status Quo
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Overview of Project
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Project Goal

• The goal of the effort is to improve
  hurricane preparedness and recovery of the
  Virginia Department of Transportation through the
  identification of planning and management options
  and the assessment and evaluation of the
  associated costs, benefits, and risks

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Schedule
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Task 1 Review of Literature and Formation of
Advisory Committees

• Review and evaluation of past studies, theory and
  methodology, other agencies' experience, and
  databases
• Two advisory committees (1) Steering Committee,
  consisting primarily of VDOT personnel and (2) a
  Users' Group, made up of localities and other
  government agencies, e.g., emergency services.

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Task 2. Extension of Prioritization Tool to GIS
Platform

• Integrate the mapping of critical facilities with
  VDOT's capabilities for geographic information
  system (GIS)
• Work closely with the Transportation Information
  Management Steering Committee (TIMSC) and current
  managers of VDOT information systems, including
  GIS, to ensure compatibility.

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Task 3. Incorporation of Localities and
Additional Critical Facilities

• Local jurisdictions
• Intermodal connections (ports, airports, rail)
• Number of people served
• Logistic points (e.g., food warehouses, power
  generation facilities, water bottling plants,
  natural gas pipeline heads, collection and
  distribution points).

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Task 4. Use of Hurricane Forecasts for VDOT
Operations

• National Hurricane Center and others
• The effort will demonstrate the efficacy of
  probabilistic hurricane forecasts in support of
  various VDOT planning and management functions.
• Capture the impacts of current decisions to
  future options

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Task 5. Modeling for Agency-Wide Preparedness and
Recovery

• Hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) will be
  used to classify overlapping and connected
  functions, divisions, and performance metrics
• Similar studies for the DoD, FBI, and PCCIP
• Foundation for resource allocation and
  coordination within and outside agency

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Task 6. Resources, Databases, and Software
Task 7. Reports, Presentations, and Workshop
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Risk-based Prioritization of Recovery of Road
Network
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Priority Setting

• Goal to prioritize roads and intersections based
  on critical facilities and condition of road
  network
• Restoring or replacing damaged equipment
• Critical facilities are those necessary for a
  communitys well-being

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Data Collection
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Database Requirements

• Compatible with VDOTs systems
• Capable of supporting network optimization models
• Straightforward to use and to package for VDOT
• Build onto an existing GIS database of VDOT roads

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ArcviewTM Software

• Considered Arcview, MapInfo, and ArcInfo GIS
  software
• Arcview recommended by VDOTs cartographic
  division
• Network AnalystTM available with Arcview for
  optimization

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Electronic Road Map

• Two sources for electronic road maps
• VDOTs Network Level Basemap CD-ROM used for
  establishing road system from which network model
  will be created
• Roads are identified by route number and type
  (interstate, US highway, primary and secondary
  state routes)
• Contains all the roads needed for this study in
  ArcviewTM format

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Electronic Road Map (cont.)

• Census maps obtained from UVA Library for
  geocoding addresses
• Facilities located through address matching
  process
• Maps contain address data including road names,
  house numbers, and zip codes
• Maps are less accurate than VDOTs street maps
  but good enough for geocoding

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Example of Arcview Map
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Locating Critical Facilities

• Critical facilities are mapped in Arcview
• Facilities color-coded in Arcview, according to
  the type of facility
• Facility maps will overlay the road maps
• The facilities will be separated into themes by
  category and subcategory

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Geocoding Facilities

• Arcview will locate many facilities automatically
  with a street address
• Street addresses are easy to obtain for most
  critical facilities, simplifying data collection
• Geocoding works roughly 90 of the time, and
  remaining facilities are located manually

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Facility Information

• In addition to locating facilities on a map,
  Arcview will store facility data
• Address, coordinates, facility category and
  subcategory, street assignment, etc.
• Information will be available for network
  prioritization model

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Classification of Critical Facilities
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Critical Facilities by Locality
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Phases of Preparedness
.
.
.
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Facilities and Road Network
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Future Classification of Facilities

• Critical facility categories will be mapped to a
  list of transportation stakeholders, including
  meeting invitees
• Looking to refine the categories further for the
  most complete highway recovery
• What additional facilities do the stakeholders
  identify as critical

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Optimization of Recovery
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Agency-wide Hierarchical Holographic Modeling
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Hurricane Project HHM

• What is HHM
• Preliminary Structure
• Comments and suggestions

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Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)

• Hierarchical
• Multiple levels of the problem
• Emergency preparedness and response
• Hurricanes, snow, flooding, other natural events
  (earthquake, tornado), man-made events
  (accidental, deliberate)
• Multiple levels of the agencies involved
• State, local, federal, multi-state
• Intra-agency and inter-agency

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Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)

• Holographic
• Portrays interactions across all levels and
  sublevels
• Multi-dimensional vs. 2-dimensional
• A holograph vs. a photograph

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Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)

• Modeling
• A representation of the real world
• The problem
• The agencies
• Permits evaluation and planning
• Can vary in degree of complexity

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Example Type of Emergency
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Agencies Stakeholders
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Agency ResponsibilityVDOT
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Summary and Discussion

• A hurricane or other major disaster can impair
  transportation for months or years
• A method is established to prioritize the
  recovery using an electronic map in Arcview to
  identify facilities and roads
• The GIS map will allow for the location of
  critical facilities across the Suffolk District

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Summary and Discussion (cont.)

• Critical facilities will be categorized and
  weighted to find the most efficient recovery
• The optimization models will address short,
  medium, and long-term recovery
• Agency-wide disaster recovery will be studied
  using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM)