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TRANS-TOOLS scenarios
Angelo MartinoTRT Trasporti e Territorio
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TRANS-TOOLS Deliverable D1 summarises the main
policy topics of interest. Modal split,
Distribution/Equity, Environmental assessment,
Environmental policies related vehicle type,
Regional analysis, Transport forecasting, Traffic
forecasting, Dynamic analysis, Macro-economic
effects, New transport technology, Life cycle
analysis, Intermodality, Interoperability,
Logistics, Decoupling, Quality indicators, Costs
and tariffs, Safety, Security, Robustness of
transport networks.
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• The ASSESS project, carried out for the mid-term
  assessment of the White Paper, provides a
  reference list of 76 policy measures, which could
  be segmented into three groups
• Measures whose direct impacts can be simulated by
  the TRANS-TOOLS model
• Measures whose impacts can be simulated only
  indirectly by the TRANS-TOOLS model
• Measures whose impact cannot be simulated by the
  TRANS-TOOLS model.

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Groups of measures in the ASSESS project for
instance, infrastructure charging measures have a
direct effect on the transport costs variables,
while transport sector liberalisation measures
cannot be simulated in itself, they can be
simulated in terms of their indirect effect on
transport costs.
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In the ASSESS project, policy measures were
aggregated into 18 modelling packages. For
each package, the total effect of the policy
measures was quantified and four alternative
scenarios were built, assuming different degrees
of implementation of each package. The four
scenarios shared the same variables the
difference across scenarios consisted in the
values assumed by the variables.
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ASSESS 18 modelling packages A - Driving
restrictions, checks and penalties B - Working
conditions of truck drivers C - Improving quality
or rail freight services D - Opening rail freight
market E - Opening rail passenger market F -
Reducing environmental impacts G - Single
European Sky H - Improving social and economic
efficiency of air transport I - Managing airports
capacity J - Liberalisation of port services and
improvement of navigation logistics K - Oil
pollution damage compensation fund L - River
Information System M - Social legislation for
inland waterway transport N - Improving freight
intermodality O - Revising Transport pricing and
taxing P - Taxation of energy products Q -
Improving intermodality for passengers R -
Infrastructures
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TRANS-TOOLS network model Reference scenario
3 policy scenarios The reference scenario is
defined as benchmark for comparisons between the
results of the policy scenarios
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TRANS-TOOLS reference scenario DG TREN
projections (ASSESS, WETO)
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TRANS-TOOLS reference scenario DG TREN
projections (ASSESS, WETO)
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TRANS-TOOLS scenario 1 Social marginal cost
pricing (based on Recordit IASON) for all modes
of transport A fixed levy per EU15 country is
established (similar to the MAUT system in
Germany) This scenario does not implement any
network development
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• TRANS-TOOLS scenario 2
• Slow implementation of the European Transport
  Policy.
• Partial completion of TENs network
• Homogenous infrastructure charging for road
  freight based on an estimation of social marginal
  costs (new charges would replace current
  charges)
• Fostering intermodality both for passenger and
  freight, through the development of logistics
  integrators and passenger intermodal terminals
• Improving rail interoperability and enhancing the
  quality of services.

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TRANS-TOOLS scenario 2 - Slow implementation of
the ETP
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• TRANS-TOOLS scenario 3
• Fast implementation of the European Transport
  Policy.
• Total completion of TENs network
• Realisation of Motorways of sea
• Extension of road charging to the main road
  network and to passenger cars
• Enforcing more tight rules on working conditions
  of truck driver
• Liberalisation of the rail sector
• Liberalisation of airport slots.

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TRANS-TOOLS scenario 3 - Fast implementation of
the ETP
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TRANS-TOOLS scenario 3 - Fast implementation of
the ETP
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TRANS-TOOLS scenarios 2 and 3 TEN projects