Summary

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Summary Australia, now Oil demand, production,
use (transport) Geography, population 3
different countries remote, rural,
urban High Oil Vulnerability Australia will
be badly affected by oil depletion, unless
substantial changes are made Possible
change options for government
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Australia uses 45,000 megalitres of oil each
year a 360m cube
Sydney Harbour Bridge is 134 m high
80 of Australias oil usage is in transport
If Australias 20 M tpa wheat crop ? ethanol
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Evolution of Forecasts of Australian Oil
Production Geoscience Australia (Australian
Geological Survey) k bbl/day
Actual Forecasts
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Remoteness classification
Major cities Inner regional Outer
regional Remote Very remote
Outer regional
Very remote
Remote
3 separate countries Remote Regional Urban
3 31 66
Inner regional
Major cities
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Remote Australia mining, pastoral, indigenous
Indigenous communities
2.4 of Australians are indigenous

• ROAD ACCESS800 km to Alice Springs. 1110 km to
  Kalgoorlie
• Weekly police patrol visits by vehicle from
  Laverton, 750 km to the West.
• Twice weekly small aircraft from Alice Springs to
  Kalgoorlie,

The largest dots indicate 500 people or more, the
smallest less than 50
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Brockman Iron Formation, near Mt Tom Price, NW
Western Australia
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Rural Australia Sparsely populated
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Urban/Suburban Australia
Institute for Sustainability and Technology
Policy Murdoch University, Perth
City wealth vs car use per capita (1990)
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Urban passenger mode shares Australia
Car
High automobile-dependence Public transport
share is very low
Potterton BTRE 2003
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Non-urban passenger outlook Air grows faster
than other modes
Air passenger
Car
Potterton BTRE 2003
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The impact of oil depletion on Australian
cities. The bushfire analogy
The Canberra fire-storms of January 2003
destroyed over 400 houses on the outer edge of
the outer suburbs
Reliable predictions had been ignored by the
authorities, and there was no effective action
to minimise the risks
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Satellite image of Canberra region showing
fire-damage from the west. January 2003. Red
hues are burnt areas. White lines show suburbs
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UK National Newspaper
The Guardian Tuesday December 2, 2003
Bottom of the barrel The world is running
out of oil - so why do politicians
refuse to talk about it? Every generation has
its taboo ..the resource upon which our lives
have been built is running out. We don't talk
about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a
civilisation in denial. George Monbiot see
www.monbiot.com
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after Swenson, 2000
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Individualised Marketing Travel behaviour change
Equivalent to discovering another Iraq?
Reducing automobile travel can produce
nega-barrels of oil more cheaply than oil
can be found by exploration. (negative oil,
saved by conservation)
Large programs in cities in Germany, Australia
Sweden have shown sustained average reductions of
13 in car-kms travelled. Individualised
Marketing informs interested people of available
travel options. They are empowered to choose
different travel modes and to reduce unnecessary
travel. The strategy (IndiMark) was developed
by Munich firm Socialdata.
www.STCwa.org.au/negabarrels
www.Socialdata.de
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Add in the geopolitical costs of oil and the
case for raising petrol taxes, especially in
America, becomes overwhelming
April 30th- May 6th 2005
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Australian Government Policy and Action Options
1 Talk about it, Talk about it
2. Engage people, Participatory democracy
3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that
subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight
transport.
4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and
disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should
be incrementally raised to European levels to
reduce usage.
5 SmartCard personal fuel allocation system.
A flexible mechanism for short-term oil shocks,
as well for encouraging people to reduce their
fuel usage..
6. Concentrate on the psychological and social
dimensions of automobile dependence, not just
technological fixes
7. Implement nationwide "individualised
marketing" travel demand management.
8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are
better investments than more roads.
9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas
supplies to food production, essential services
and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card
system.
10. Review the oil vulnerability of every
industry and community sector and how each may
reduce their risks.
11 Promote through the United Nations an
Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a
Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the
declining oil among nations. An international
tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is
one hypothetical option.
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Two spare slides follow in case of questions
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Bicycles are powered by biomass, renewable
energy, either breakfast cereal or abdominal
fat No shortage of either
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