Getting It Right

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Getting It Right The Path to a Sustainable
Bioeconomy4th National 25x25 Renewable Energy
SummitOmaha, March 12th, 2008

• Melinda Kimble
• Senior Vice-President

2
UN Foundation Overview

• Public charity, created in 1998 with Ted Turners
  historic 1 billion gift to support UN causes
• Builds and implements public-private partnerships
  to address the worlds most pressing problems
• Strengthens and supports the UN and its causes
  through a blend of advocacy, grant making, and
  partnerships
• Priority areas include environment childrens
  health, technology and women and population.
• Within the environmental area, priority given to
  sustainable development and climate change with a
  focus on RE/EE
• UNF has given particular attention to the
  Caribbean and Central American nations (CA/CAR)
• West African bioenergy assessment now underway

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UN Foundation and Bio-Energy

• UN International Bioenergy Initiative
• UN Energy
• Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP)
• Global Sustainable Energy Islands Initiative
• Biofuels Partnership with the Italian Ministry of
  Environment
• Support to AOSIS member countries on adaptation
  and mitigation, including bio-energy
• Interamerican Development Bank (IDB)
• Organization of American States (OAS)
• Roundtable On Sustainable Biofuels (RSB)
• Harvard University
• Bioenergy wiki
• UNF is also a partner in the in the US-Brazil
  Biofuels Initiative

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World Markets and Export Opportunities
Cereal Imports of Developing Countries
1970-2030
Historical Development
Projections
240
East Asia
190
South Asia
Near East/North Africa
Latin America
140
s.S.Africa
million tonnes
90
40
-10
1970
1980
1990
2000
2015
2030
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Biomass Trade Flows
Source adapted from IEA (2007).
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Trade Scenarios Restricted Trade

• Policies that block or distort trade will change
  where biomass is produced
• Almost all regions of the world will produce
  bioenergy. Main producers Latin America, USA,
  Africa and Europe
• The level of global bioenergy production is lower
  in comparison to unrestricted trade

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Trade Scenarios Unrestricted Trade

• Largest biofuel producers Latin America, Africa
  and US because of low land prices and high
  biomass productivity
• Global demand will be supplied by those regions
  with the lowest cost of production
• Production expands in other regions only when the
  cost of biofuels rises in a low cost region due
  to the rise of land prices
• Bioenergy exports are around 18 EJ/year in 2050
  and around 125 EJ/year in 2100

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Bioenergy and Food - Crop Prices
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Pricing Agriculture through the Energy Markets
P,S, EP-EQ
Maize, US
Subsidies
Energy prices
Sugar, BRA
Lack of market integration
Growing market integration should take
competitive feedstocks to their energy price
equivalent, subsidies can keep them above that
level
T, t
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Biofuels Took-off when World Inventories Were
Declining
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Why Bioenergy?

• Potential for energy access in underserved areas
  urban poor, rural off-grid communities
• Potential to contribute to climate change
  mitigation
• Only current alternative fuel for transport sector

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Bioenergy Development Options
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The Present Market

• Ethanol growing rapidly, from 0.4 EJ in 2000 to
  0.8 EJ in 2005
• Sugar cane ethanol in Brazil corn ethanol in US
  rapeseed biodiesel in Europe
• Biofuel production and use stimulated by
  mandatory targets and subsidies
• In US ethanol is used mostly as fuel additive
• 1 of total road transport fuel in energy terms,
  but impact on food prices and environmental
  consequences
• Limits of present technology

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• Climate and Energy Package for 2020 (EU)
• 20 reduction in GHG emissions (30 with
  international agreement)
• 20 improvement in energy efficiency
• 20 overall share of renewable energy
• 10 share of renewable energy in transport

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EU Setting Guidelines

• Biofuels have to be 35 better than fossil fuels
  from GHG perspective.
• Methodologies must be consistent across the board
• Germany, UK and the Netherlands adopting internal
  methodologies that may differ from EC
• Major public issue is land use, land use change
  and forestry.

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Indicative ranges of greenhouse gas abatement
potential from biofuels
Wide ranges are partly due to varying LCA
assumptions and methodologies.
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From Corn to Sugar Cane to Cellulosic Biomass,
Ethanol GHG Emission Reductions Are Increased
GHG Emission Reductions by Ethanol Relative to
Gasoline (per Energy Unit Basis)
Corn Ethanol
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Consideration of land use change
Direct LUC is applied. Conservative presumption
carbon-rich, regional typical land cover (forest,
grassland) is replaced C-balance including
above/below biomass, SOCdifference divided by 20
years (amortization)

Indirect LUC the Federal Government plans to
continue promoting further study of the indirect
effects of land utilization changes vigorously in
order to amend Annex 2 accordingly as soon as
possible, thereby contributing to the discussion
within the EU. (BSO, special notes) Risk
Adder has been a tremendous issue - and again
is!
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System boundary
Land use change
e.g. natural forest to short rotation forest
Co-products? allocation or substitution
Production of biomass (forestry, agriculture)
Starting point if biomass is waste
Transport of biomass

Co-products? allocation or substitution
Conversion process (where required)
Transport of converted / processed biomass
Use phase(which way, which efficiency)
Requirements for replaced reference system
power heat
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German Estimates of GHG Emissions with Indirect
Land Use Change
hydr. Oil
Bioethanol
straight Oil
FAME
200
180
160
140
120
100
Reference systems
kg CO2-e per GJ Biofuel
80
60
30 saving
40
20
0
Wheat (EU)
Corn (N.Am.)
rapeseed (EU)
soybean (N.Am.)
rapeseed (EU)
soybean (N.Am.)
rapeseed (EU)
soybean (N.Am.)
soybean (L.Am.)
Palm oil (SE.As.)
soybean (L.Am.)
Palm oil (SE.As.)
soybean (L.Am.)
Palm oil (SE.As.)
sugarbeet (EU)
sugarcane (L.Am.)
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Production Scenario No Climate Policy

• Strongly growing production of biofuels beginning
  after 2020 driven primarily by high oil price
  (oil price in 2100 over 4.5 times price in 2000)
• In 2050 global biofuels production reaches 30-40
  EJ/year (0.8 EJ/year in 2005). 5 of global
  primary energy use
• In 2100 global biofuels production reaches
  180-260 EJ/year. 15 of global primary energy use
  
• Global land area required for bioenergy
  production in 2100 700 million hectares

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Production ScenarioClimate-Related Constraints

• Carbon policies will result in an increase in
  energy prices and in demand for carbon-free fuels
  
• Limited alternatives to power vehicles
• Bioenergy will be more competitive, but the entry
  depends on the relative price of fossil fuels and
  biofuels
• The potential of bioenergy is limited by land
  availability
• Global land area required for bioenergy in 2100
  1 billion hectares
• Biofuels production of 90-130 EJ/year by 2050
  and 250-370 EJ/year by 2100. 30 of global energy
  needs
• Change in energy-producing countries (from fossil
  fuels to bioenergy) ? potential redistribution of
  wealth, with negative impacts on the Middle East
  and Russia and the most positive impacts on Latin
  America and Africa

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What is the Potential for Biofuels?

• IEA analyses show
• double current 58 billion litres by 2012 but
  less than installed plant capacity due to high
  feedstock costs (Medium Term Oil market report)
• Ninefold increase by 2030, but still only 6 of
  world transport fuels by 2030 (WEO, 2007)
• 13-25 by 2050 (ETP, 2006).
• Biofuels for rail, marine, aviation and heavy
  freight transport perhaps more long term
  potential than for small road vehicles that might
  use electric or hydrogen propulsion.
• Improved energy efficiency of vehicles most
  important whether there is increased demand for
  biofuels or not.

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Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels

• One Steering Board composed of international
  stakeholders from UN Foundation, UNEP, UNCTAD,
  Shell, WWF, BP, Petrobras, Toyota, TERI India,
  Mali Folkecenter, Bunge, and others.
• One secretariat based at Ecole Polytechnique
  Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)
• Four Working Groups (GHG, Environment, Social,
  and Implementation) smaller Expert Advisory
  Groups to make recommendations to the Steering
  Board. 180 participants from international
  organisations, NGOs, private sector and academic
  institutions have signed up for one or more
  Working Groups.
• Global stakeholder feedback at every step (blogs,
  meetings, wiki technology, pilot projects,
  regional outreaches)
• Innovative transparent standard-setting using
  www.BioenergyWiki.net, to share background
  information and share comments with other
  participants.

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RSB Principles

• Seven draft principles for policies
• Legal and transparent
• Contribute to climate stabilization
• Protect human rights and labor standards
• Contribute to social and economic development of
  rural/indigenous communities
• Enhance food security and biodiversity
• IADB accepted principles last week

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THANK YOU! mkimble_at_unfoundation.org