Interagency Portfolio

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Interagency Portfolio Systems Analysis Division
NAS-WIDE Simulation Workshop December 10, 2008
Yuri Gawdiak
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JPDO External Requirements Drivers from OMB

1. Improving NextGen cost and benefit estimation
   ability, including the ability to quantify the
   benefits and performance of various levels of
   investment. The JPDO should work with the
   NextGen agencies to develop a more systematic,
   independently-verified methodology for validating
   the cost of NextGen investments.
2. Developing an analysis of alternatives for the
   NextGen Exh. 300 that captures benefit-cost
   ratios and returns on investment, to be submitted
   in time for agencies FY 2010 budget request to
   OMB in September 2008. The NextGen Exh. 300 also
   needs to have a designated, qualified project
   manager.

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Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Matrix
Goals Global leadership Capacity Safety Environment / Noise Environment /Fuel Consumption Defense Security
Top-level metricssummary descriptors Percent of JPDO milestones on track Total ATS-related costs per flight Percent on-time arrivals with traffic volume to meet predicted demand Curb-to-curb travel time Percent of improvements evaluated for safety Number of people exposed to gt65 dB DNL Fleet fuel consumed per distance flown Reduction in flight time arising from flexible use of SUA Time passengers spend dedicated to security
Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Stakeholder Benefit Metrics Stakeholder Benefit Metrics
Air Traffic Service Provider Cost per unit of service On-time performance Reduced accident risk Reduced SUA-related delays for DoD and civil users
Airspace Users Equipage costs Global inter-operability (metric TBD) Number of flights On-time performance Reduced accident risk Reduced fuel costs Reduction in flight time and delay from flexible use of airspace
Airports Number of passengers Throughout capacity Reduced accident risk Environmental remediation costs Time passengers spend in security
Fliers Shippers Cost of delay On-time performance Passenger total trip time Reduced accident risk Reduced fuel costs Time passengers spend in security
DoD Global interoperability (metric TBD) Reduced accident risk Reduced costs related to use of SUA
Communities Near Airports Number of flights Number of passengers Reduced accident risk Population exposed to gt65 dB DNL Reduced local pollutant levels
Stakeholders
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Internal NextGen Requirements Capabilities
Cost/Benefit Mapping
Infrastructure Standards, Communication
Capabilities, Cross Cutting Services
Provide Effective Information Sharing Environment
The ability to improve information required by
aviation regulation, situational awareness and
enhance decision making by managing, integrating,
and flexibly delivering, relevant and reliable
data and information (e.g., advisories, signals,
and alerts) on demand in a format that is
accessible, secure, and available to authorized
users in a unified and coordinated environment.
Tactical, National ,Virtual Real-Time
Collaboration Planning
Provide Collaborative Flow Contingency Management
Strategic Global Collaboration Planning
The ability to provide optimal, synchronized, and
safe strategic flow initiatives and minimized
operational impacts in collaboration with
enterprise stakeholders, through real or near
real time resolutions informed by probabilistic
decision making that address large
demand/capacity imbalances within capacity
management plans.
Provide Collaborative Capacity Management
Real-time Robotic automation Safety Assurance
The ability to dynamically balance forecasted
airspace and airport demand and utilization in
collaboration with enterprise stakeholders
through proactive strategic planning and
automation (e.g. decision support systems), using
airspace and airport design requirements,
standards and configuration conditions, and with
consideration of other air transportation system
resources.
Provide Flexible Separation Management
Provide Efficient Trajectory Management
The ability to establish and maintain safe
separation minima from other aircraft, vehicles,
protected airspace, terrain, weather, etc.,
predict conflicts, and identify resolutions
(e.g., course, speed, altitude, etc.) in real
time to accommodate increasing capacity demands
and traffic levels using automation (e.g.
decision support systems) while applying reduced
separation standards.
The ability to provide trajectories that minimize
the frequency and complexity of aircraft
conflicts within the flow through trajectory
negotiation and adjusting individual aircraft
trajectory and/or sequence when resource
contention requires.
Provide Flexible Airport Facility Surface
Operations
The ability to reallocate or reconfigure the
airport facility and surface assets to maintain
an acceptable level of service that will
accommodate increasing passenger and cargo demand
levels, or changes in operational requirements,
through infrastructure development, predictive
analyses, automation (e.g. decision support
systems), and improvements to technology and
procedures.
Infrastructure Standards, Safety Risk
Management Capabilities, Cross Cutting Services
Provide Integrated Regulatory Risk Management
The ability to provide appropriate, effective and
scalable solutions to mitigate environmental
impacts, and safety and security risks in the air
transportation system based on proactive risk
identification and analysis through improved
automation, policies, procedures, and processes
using established standards, requirements, and
responsibilities.
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System Modeling Challenges
Complex Terminal Surface Operations
Safety/Security Risk Exposure
Productivity/Inefficiencies
Policy Dynamics
System-wide Technology Effects (Situational
Awareness/Data Quality)
Collaboration Behaviors Market/Fleet Strategies
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Future Scenario Challenges
Billions of Runs
Millions of Runs
Thousands of Runs
Hundreds of Runs
JPDO Full Lifecycle Evaluations out to 2040
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Summary

1. Ability to isolate benefits of individual
   capabilities include system-wide infrastructure
   type benefits
2. Identify to current system opportunity costs -
   missed or short falls in collaborations in the
   NAS
3. Identification of current productivity levels
   across all components in the system
4. Ability to incorporate and measure safety and
   security benefits and constraints
5. Ability to incorporate surface, terminal, and
   metroplex operations into the NAS-wide
   simulations
6. Ability to incorporate AOC and Airport business
   objectives at both the strategic and tactical
   levels
7. Assess policy and strategic decision risks of the
   community to fund, develop, and implement the
   NextGen RD and programs
8. Ability to run sufficient number of simulations
   to evaluate a portfolio of investment options