Uses and Abuses of Public Opinion Surveying on Issues of Identity

1
Uses and Abuses of Public Opinion Surveying on
Issues of Identity

• Jack Jedwab
• For Metropolis
• November 20th, 2008

2
Neutral questions on identity

• Is there such a thing as a neutral question in
  a survey when we examine opinion around identity?
  We will look at a variety of issues connected to
  questions on immigration, integration and
  identity

3
Loaded questions, concealed answers and proper
controls

• Challenges around identity include question
  formulation specifically loading of responses or
  put another way suggesting answers to the
  respondent
• Respondent Concealment politically correct
  responses may be offered where respondent risks
  acknowledging discriminatory attitudes
• Putting in the proper and most important controls
  when doing analysis (age is often crucial but
  other demographics important)

4
Risk of Generalizations

• Are categories appropriate
• Racial or Racialized analysis is often broken
  down by Visible minority or Not Visible Minority
  (masks diversity in groups)
• Language English, French and Other Do English
  and other language groups possess strong shared
  identity
• Immigrant and Non-Immigrant Each category
  comprises considerable diversity
• Generational Status Obsession with 2nd
  generation presumes equal start but is that
  really fair

5
Using ambiguous terms or concepts

• Are the terms of questions explained
• Canadians feel that they know the meaning of
  terms however questions about multiculturalism
  are often no more than a euphemism that help us
  know if the word resonates positively or
  negatively
• Few people know what social cohesion means hence
  it is rarely included in a survey question nor is
  the term interculturalism employed

6
Limits on Measuring Public Opinion on issues of
Identity

• Often we presume a degree of knowledge on the
  part of the respondent which is unwarranted
• We rarely inquire into the knowledge of the
  population around a specific issue before forging
  ahead with questions
• Often identity questions require certain built in
  assumptions. On identity questions many analysts
  believe choices must be imposed (youre with or
  against something), youre an ethnic or a
  Canadian first, youre Catholic or Protestant,
  etc.
• Mixed identities make forced choices increasingly
  difficult to impose

7
Voting behavior

• Ethnic diversity survey and many other surveys
  that inquire into voting intentions and ask
  whether one either voted in a previous election
  or intend to vote in a forthcoming election are
  generally 20 points above voter turnout. Hence
  people exaggerate intentions. Gaps between what
  we say we will do and whether we actually do it.

8
Coming to Our Census

• The census tells us how many people self-identify
  with an ethnic group or groups or visible
  minority or religious group. But it does not tell
  us how important these expressions of identity
  are to the population and how they get
  manifested. To determine this StatsCan does
  special or post-censal surveys.
• Ethnic Diversity Survey 2002 (is it a big public
  opinion survey?)
• Many identity are questions soft or spongy
  something which StatsCan is leery about

9
Integration rarely defined

• Typical question from National Polling Firms
• Some people say that immigrants and minority
  ethnic groups should blend into Canadian society
  and not form a separate community. Other people
  say that immigrants and minority ethnic groups
  should be free to maintain their religious and
  cultural practices and traditions. Which one of
  these two points of view is closest to your own?
• Result - Canadians usually split half way

10
Loading the integration distinctions
2008, April 14. The Strategic Counsel for the Globe and Mail and CTV Canada Age Age Age
2008, April 14. The Strategic Counsel for the Globe and Mail and CTV Canada 18-34 35-49 50
2008, April 14. The Strategic Counsel for the Globe and Mail and CTV Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13
n 1000 279 286 420
New Canadians hold on to their customs and traditions for too long when they come to Canada 45 37 42 52
New Canadians integrate into Canadian life at a natural and acceptable pace 47 55 51 40
DK/NA/Ref 8 8 7 8
11
Integration More nuanced

• The relationship between maintaining ones
  customs and traditions and/or joining the
  mainstream is more than nuanced than suggest the
  two propositions generally submitted by
  pollsters. A recent national survey (October
  4-10, 2007) of 1500 Canadians conducted by Leger
  Marketing for the Association for Canadian
  Studies suggests that the traditional
  dichotomy-the either/or option of maintaining
  customs or mixing is not supported by public
  opinion which to a significant extent thinks that
  both are possible.

12
The nuance of integration

• Both mixing and preservation of customs and
  traditions are supported by two-thirds of the
  population. This finding should not be surprising
  as it reflects the experience of many immigrants
  and their descendents, who very often give up
  some traditions, maintain others and to varying
  degrees mix and interact with the broader
  population.

13
Is it a choice?

• Some 67 of Canadians agree that society should
  encourage mixing various cultures to form a new
  national community.
• Some 64 disagree that society should urge
  immigrants to give up their customs and
  traditions and become more like the majority
• Some 72 disagree that society should discourage
  minorities from forming communities and urge them
  to abandon their cultural practices
• Some 67 agree that society should try harder to
  accept minority groups' customs and traditions

14
Integration Opposing Gender and Multiculturalism

• Question masks gender rights violation
  Obviously few Canadians disagreed
• Some immigrant and minority ethnic
  communities have very traditional practices and
  beliefs when it comes to the role and rights of
  women. Some people say Canada should accept and
  accommodate these traditional beliefs about the
  rights and role of women. Other people say that
  immigrants and ethnic minorities should adapt to
  mainstream Canadian beliefs about the rights and
  role of women. Which one of these two points of
  view is closest to your own?

15
On the hand Canadians are accommodating
Globe and Mail and CTV by the Strategic Council 2008 Canada Region Region Region Region
Globe and Mail and CTV by the Strategic Council 2008 Canada Quebec Rest of Canada Ontario West
Globe and Mail and CTV by the Strategic Council 2008 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13
n 1000 243 757 383 300
Accommodating so many new Canadians of such diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds means we have less in common as Canadians and that this weakens our sense of national identity 30 33 29 32 27
Having all this diversity is actually a defining and enriching part of our Canadian identity and strengthens our sense of national identity 61 61 61 59 63
DK/NA/Ref 9 6 10 9 11
16
On the other hand theyre not?
Do Canadians agree or disagree We make too many accommodations to visible minorities in Canada Total 18-34 35-49 50
Do Canadians agree or disagree We make too many accommodations to visible minorities in Canada Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13
n 1000 279 286 420
TOTAL Agree 61 53 60 68
Strongly agree 28 22 25 33
Somewhat agree 33 30 35 34
Somewhat disagree 22 29 23 15
Strongly disagree 14 17 14 13
TOTAL Disagree 36 46 37 28
17
How a survey makes the Charter unCanadian
18
Charter of Rights Does not reflect Canadian
Values?

• On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the
  Charter of Rights the President of SES research
  Nick Nanos released a survey analysis under the
  heading the Charter values dont equal Canadian
  values. Unfortunately he provides no meaningful
  evidence for this assertion since the survey he
  conducts puts no such question directly. How
  therefore does Nanos arrive at this conclusion?

19
Nanos No Nos

• He does so by asking two questions which permit
  no such causal relationship to be established
  (1) based on what you know, would you say that
  the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in Canada is
  moving our society in the right direction or in
  the wrong direction? Answer nearly six in ten
  Canadians agree that the Charter is moving the
  country in the right direction. (2) top of mind
  question as to why it moves the country in either
  direction inviting over thirty unprompted
  responses as grouped by Nanos. On this basis he
  concludes that the Charter is by no means central
  to Canadian identity as amongst its supporters
  when unprompted only 5.3 percent, one Canadian
  in 20, thought the Charter makes Canada a great
  country.

20
More No Nos

• Among those who said the Charter was moving the
  country in the right direction, only 3.1 percent
  said it because it Reflects our values. Hence
  his conclusion that it doesnt reflect our values
  Following Nanos logic it might be assumed that
  some 97 of Charter supporters dont think that
  it reflects Canadian values. He does not suggest
  that the 29 saying that the Charter of Rights
  protects rights and freedoms (the most common
  response) and the 16 saying it works implies
  that a substantial majority believe it neither
  works nor protects rights? Those who are
  supporters of the Charter neednt worry however
  because only 10 of those saying the Charter goes
  in the wrong direction say people have too many
  rights, 9 say it divides society/undercuts
  Canadian identity and 15 say it doesnt work.
  This is very reassuring news for Charter
  supporters as only small shares of its critics
  when unprompted say people have too many rights,
  the Charter doesnt work and that it divides
  society or undercuts Canadian identity.

21
Is Canada a singular choice
22
Environics Survey of Muslims 2006

• Would you say you are very, somewhat, not very or
  not at all PROUD to be Canadian?
• 73 Very proud and 21 somewhat proud
• Do you think of yourself first as a Canadian or
  first as a Muslim?
• 56 Muslim, 23 Canadian and 16 both Equally

23
Reitz whats more important self-identification
or belonging to Canada

• Reitz contends that self-identifying as Canadian
  more important than the sense of belonging to
  Canada Presumes that low Canadian identification
  is connected to high ethnic retention. But often
  responses to identity questions are horizontal.
  People who rate themselves as 4 or 5 on a
  five-point scale on identity questions do the
  same for other identity scale based responses

24
Immigration Does it matter if we know the
numbers
25
Immigration How Many is Too Many

• Polls commissioned by the federal government have
  attempted to test awareness about the numbers of
  immigrants coming to Canada annually and then
  proceeded to ask a question about the levels.
  When asked, some 95 of Canadians say they do
  have an idea of the approximate percentage of
  people in their neighborhood that are immigrants.
  Surveys done by Ipsos in October 2005 and
  November 2006 reveal that some one in five
  Canadians (22) believe that Canada allows entry
  of fewer than 150,000 immigrants annually. Two in
  five (39) believe the government allows in
  between 150,000 and 249,000 immigrants annually,
  while one in four (24) say the government allows
  in between 250,000 and 499,000 annually. Fewer
  than one in ten (6) believe Canada allows more
  than 500,000 immigrants to enter Canada annually.
  Those who are most likely to say there are
  between 150,000 and 249,000 immigrants coming to
  Canada annually include those who say that about
  the right number of immigrants are coming to
  Canada (44), compared to those who say there are
  too many (34).

26
Knowing the numbers makes for some opinion
shift

• What happens to public opinion when questions on
  immigration levels are preceded with actual
  numbers? In this regard in January 2006, Ipsos
  indicated that Canada accepted about 225 000
  immigrants annually and when questioned on this
  basis 44 declared the number too high, 34 said
  it was about right, 10 said it was too low and
  12 did not express an opinion. Thus the
  revelation of the number nearly inverts the
  respective percentages regarding immigration as
  too high and about right. In other words,
  there was a shift of opinion with a certain
  percentage changing from about right to too
  high.

27
Too Much Too little Too late
Ipsos Nov 2006 Too many Too few About the right number Total
Less than 150,000 20.5 27.4 21.7 21.8
150,000 to 249,000 33.2 40.0 42.5 38.1
250,000 to 499,000 24.6 20.0 24.9 23.4
500,000 or more 9.2 5.3 4.9 6.3
Don't know/Refused 12.4 7.4 6.0 10.4
28
How Specific should knowledge be?

• Survey-November 3rd to 19th, 2006. Three in ten
  Canadians (29) are aware of the backlog
  (refugees) for people waiting to come to Canada.
  Is that a high figure or low. Much depends on the
  bar that one establishes when it comes to such
  knowledge.

29
Asking the wrong questions
Latest census 5 million Canadian citizens who are members of visible minority groups. Do Canadians view this as a positive or negative? Canada Region Region Region Region
Latest census 5 million Canadian citizens who are members of visible minority groups. Do Canadians view this as a positive or negative? Canada Quebec Rest of Canada Ontario West
Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13 Apr 10-13
n 1000 243 757 383 300
Positive 48 51 46 48 45
Negative 9 6 10 11 9
Not sure 42 43 41 39 43
DK/NA/Ref 2 - 3 2 3
30
Knowledge of Canadas History

• Dominion Institute on Knowledge of History
  regular July 1 surveys reveal that Canadians
  dont sufficiently know-based on the DI bar the
  countrys history. But ACS-Leger Marketing survey
  reveals that when asked to self-evaluate their
  historic knowledge they rank themselves very
  high. In other words Canadians dont think they
  are ignorant.