Sustainable Urban Planning based on Integrated LandUse and Transportation Models

1
Sustainable Urban Planning based on Integrated
Land-Use and Transportation Models
at Asian Development Bank 4 September 2006

• Kazuaki MIYAMOTO
• Professor
• Musashi Institute of Technology
• (MI-Tech)

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What is a problem and the fundamental cause?
3
What is the best policy and the measure to
relieve the problem?
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Interaction between Land Use and Transportation

• Land Use Travel Demand
• Location Condition Transportation Condition

Land Use
Transportation
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Land Use, Transport, Environment and the
Interactions
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Examples of Implementation Measure Elements of
Land-Use, Transport and Environmental Policies

• Regulations
• Bus priority / exclusive lanes
• Unleaded gasoline
• Land-Use Zoning
• Building control

• Housing Development
• Land development / Readjustment

• Operation)
• Mass transit operation
• Area traffic control
• Flexible working hours
• Open hours of shops

• Taxation / Pricing
• Vehicle import / purchase taxes
• Fuel taxes
• Land-Use taxes
• Development charges

• Education / Information
• Car pooling
• Safe driving
• Environmental campaign
• Hazard map

• Investment
• Development of road network
• Provision of Mass Rapid Transit

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Basic FrameworkThe Case of Japan
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Basic FrameworkThe Case of a Metropolise in Asia
Indicators
Time
Urban Form
Population Scenario
Congestion
Emissions
Financial
2000
2010
OM
Capital
2020
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What are the issues?

• Institutional Problems
• Sectionalism
• Old fashioned idea
• Technical Problems
• Tools

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Urban Models

• Transportation Model
• Land Use Model
• Integrated Land Use Transportation Model

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Policy Measures

Time Lead / Lag


t
t
( t )





Land-Use
Transportation

Condition
Condition



t

( t
-
1 )


From Previous Term
Framework
( t
-
1 )




Transport

Land-Use Model
( Economy Population )


Model




( t1 )

N

N

( t1 )

Land-Use


Transport

Y

( t
-
1 )

Y

Converge?

Converge?

(V

)


(N
)

c

is
To Next Term
( t )

t

( t1 )




Environment Conditions
Environment Model




(E
)

Environment
s
The Structure of An Integrated Land-Use,
Transport and Environment Model modified from
Miyamoto and Udomsri (1995)
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Twenty Urban Models by Michael Wegener

• BOYCE the combined models of location and travel
  choice developed by Boyce
• CUFM the California Urban Futures Model developed
  at the University of California at Berkeley
• DELTA the land-use/economic modelling package
  DELTA by Davids Simmonds Consultancy
• HUDS the Harvard Urban Development Simulation
  developed by Kain and Apgar
• ILUTE the Integrated Land Use, Transportation,
  Environment modelling system under development at
  a number of Canadian universities
• IMREL the Integrated Model of Residential and
  Employment Location developed by Anderstig and
  Mattsson
• IRPUD the model of the Dortmund region by Wegener
  
• ITLUP the Integrated Transportation and Land Use
  Package by Putman
• KIM the non-linear urban equilibrium model by Kim
  
• LILT the Leeds Integrated Land-Use/Transport
  model by Mackett
• MEPLAN the integrated modelling package developed
  by Marcial Echenique Partners
• METROSIM the microeconomic land use and transport
  model developed by Anas
• MUSSA the '5-Stage Land-Use Transport Model'
  developed for Santiago de Chile by Martinez
• POLIS the Projective Optimization Land Use
  Information System developed by Prastacos for the
  Association of Bay Area Governments
• RURBAN the Random-Utility URBAN model developed
  by Miyamoto
• STASA the master-equation based itransport and
  urban/regional model developed by Haag
• TLUMIP the land-use transport model of the U.S.
  State of Oregon developed in the Oregon Transport
  and Land Use Model Integration Program
• TRANUS the transport and land use model developed
  by de la Barra
• TRESIS the Transportation and Environment
  Strategy Impact Simulator by Hensher and Ton

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US MANDATES in 1990s

• Federal
• Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA)
• Transportation Efficiency Act (TEA 21)
• ISTEA (Intermodal Surface Transport Efficiency
  Act)
• Oregon State
• Oregon Transportation Planning Rule (TPR)
• Oregon Growth Management and Quality Communities
  Policies

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Land Use Models in USA
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RURBAN/Sapporo

• Since 1988
• Miyamotos Laboratory and Docon

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RURBAN/Sapporo MS-Dos version 1990 Windows
3.1 Version 1994 Windows 95 Version1996
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Output Example
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TRANUS/Sapporo

• Since 2001
• Miyamotos Laboratory, Docon
• and Modelistica

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Subway Project
With-Without Comparison of Toho Line
Vicinity of Subway
Sapporo Central Station
Area far away from Subway
N
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Vicinity of Subway Project
1417
36
??????
112
??
1416
11
19
99
9
79
???
43
-8
1414
29
24
20
7
1415
16
??
-4
1413
11
w/
Legend
10
6
Real
Real
w/o
1
????
PT
-7
?????
1km
Pop.
HH
25
Area far from Subway Line
1615
76
64
62
1616
24
20
167
5
23
1
12
123
121
-4
59
1617
47
43
43
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w/
Legend
18
Real
Real
w/o
3
PT
Pop
HH
1km
1619
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Sustainable City Analysis
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Sustainability and A Compact City
Development that meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of the future
generation to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987)
Sustainable Urban Form Compact City Development
Consequences and Considerations
t2
t1
t
Population Environment Social Economic
Inter-generational
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TRANUS Quasi-Dynamic Evaluation

• An integrated urban model (comprehensiveness)
• Covers all subsystems in urban system
• Quasi-dynamics spatial allocation model
• Capacity for large variety of case studies and
  applications

Time t1
Time t3
Time t2
Land Use
Land Use
Land Use
Transport
Transport
Transport
Compact Development Policy
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Indicators
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Policy Alternatives Tested
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Combination Policies Effects CL PTP
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Land Use/Transportation Interaction in Bangkok
Impact of Urban Rail Transit and Pilot Model
Development
- TRANUS/Bangkok-

• Varameth Vichiensan, Kasetsart University
• Kazuaki Miyamoto, Musashi Institute of Technology

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Impact of Railway to Land Price
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Transportation Network
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Option Road Pricing
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Option Transit Oriented Development
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Household Density in 2025
Base Case
Road Pricing
TOD
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Nominal Coordination of Land Use and
Transportation
Substantial Integration of Land Use and
Transportation
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of Road Projects
Based on Empirical Data in Japan
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How to grasp risk
Phenomena which are potential causes of impeding
the achievement of a goal. - economic changes -
natural disasters
Factor
Direct causes of impeding the achievement of a
goal - difficulties in land acquisition
negotiations - increased volume of maintenance
work
Event
Impact
results of event - increase of the project cost
- prolongment of the project period
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Correlation Diagramme of Three Elements of Risk
Ic1
Ec1
Fc
F
Factor
Ec2
Ic2
Fd1
E
Event
Id
Ed
I
Impact
Fd2
Fa
Ia
Ea
Fb
Eb
Ib
Time
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Risks by Different Project Stage
Surveying and Designing
Design Consultation
Land Aquisition
Construction Work
Social Administrative
Economical Consensus
Technical Consensus
Social Consensus
Post-Opening
Administrative Consensus
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Difference Between Plan and Actual Construction
Periods
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Quantification of Risks by Simulation
1. Typical project implementation processes. 2.
Establishment of Distributions 3. Monte Carlo
Simulation
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Project Flow
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Probability Distribution of Impacts
Land purchase negotiation
Repeated work due to change of the structure
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Simulation and Critical Path
B
C
A
Q
O
D
G
P
H
J
R
N
K
L
M
The changes of the critical path can be estimated.
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Economic and Financial Impacts ofPrivate-Sector
Participation in Infrastructure Projects and
Value for Money 
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The Structure of VFM Evaluation Model
Conventional Scheme
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The Structure of VFM Evaluation Model PFI
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VFM Evaluation System
Scope of the System
Multiplier Effects
- Economic derivative effects by construction
investment and the related Taxes.
Forward Linkage Effects
- Economic effects caused by the public service
and the related taxes.
All the Financial Flows are included.
Risk

• Insurance only
• Risk management is not well considered yet.

Payment

• Expenditure share among the Public sectors
• is given to the system.
• (following the present situation as a default.)

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Conclusions
Results
(1) To have built a comprehensive evaluation
system of VFM which can be applied to various
purposes. (2) To have demonstrated the
sensitivities of several cases. (1) Some of the
tools in the system are still primitive. (2) To
investigate the applicability of the system to
other countries.
Further Studies