Diapositive 1

1
AZF HAS THE PRESS INFLUENCED PUBLIC OPINION ?
Anne LALO Maître de conférence à lUniversité de
Nice Sophia Antipolis Photos Afp, Gwenaël
COURTET
Photo AFP
2

• Recherche financée par le Ministère de
  lEcologie et du Développement Durable.
• Supervisée par la DRIRE Midi-Pyrénées

Photo AFP
3

• Over two years after the disaster that occurred
  in AZF plant on 21 September 2001 in Toulouse
  (that is ten days after the attack toward the
  Word Trade Center) the reasons for the explosion
  are still subject to interpretation, and the
  ongoing legal inquiry has still not provided any
  definitive explanation.
• 30 persons died, 2000 where hurted and 20 000
  have lost their home.

4
Photo AFP

• LOPINION PUBLIQUE
• Enquête SINISTRES
• 1000 personnes
• Enquête INSTITUTIONS
• 3723 personnes

• LA PRESSE
• 3800 ARTICLES
• ENREGISTRES DANS UNE
• BASE DE DONNEES

5
Procédure

•  Survey conducted amongst the victims
• 1,111 questionnaires filled in on 30 April 2002,
  face to face in the street by 70 students from
  the Bordeaux polytechnic.
• After adjustments and weighting the sample 1,000
  persons representing the inhabitants of the
  disaster zone.

• Institutional survey
• 7,500 questionnaires sent to the employees of 17
  institutions concerned by the disaster, between
  March and October 2002.
• Sent by the director of the institution with an
  accompanying letter. Questionnaires returned
  anonymously by post.
• 50 return rate 3,723 questionnaires.

6
Survey conducted amongst the victims
- Total des Toulousains 390 301 habitants -
Total des quartiers touchés 133 986 habitants
AGE
Catégories Socio-Prof.
15-29 ans 30-44 ans 45-59 ans 60 ans et
39,9 24,2 17,1 18,5
Agriculteurs Artisans com. Entrep. Cadres Professi
ons int. Employés Ouvriers Retraités Etudiants Aut
res sans activité
0 2,2 8,4 12,4 15,7 11,5 14,8 22,8 12,2
SEXE
Homme Femme Non rép.
49,9 49,11
7
Institutional survey
AGE
SEXE
15-29 ans 30-44 ans 45-59 ans 60 ans et Non rep.
6,8 37,4 46 7,8 1,9
Homme Femme Non rép.
54,8 42,72,4
8
Institutional surveyGroups formed using J.
Habernas' "theory of crisis" model.
PRIVATE PROPERTY
PARTIES
INVOLVED
S Y S T E M S
Economic crisis Risk generators
Social crisis Victims
PUBLIC PROPERTY
Political crisis Opposition forces and vectors
of opinion
Administrative crisis Risk managers
9
Risk generators N 343

• AZF-GRANDE PAROISSE
• SNPE
• employees of AZF
• and the SNPE

Photo G. COURTET
10
Risk managers N 1083

• DRIRE
• PREFECTURE
• SDIS
• SAMU
• VILLE DE TOULOUSE
• the Toulouse city council
• AXA insurance company

Photo G. COURTET
11
Victims N 1402

• Les particuliers
• ASSOCIATION DES SINISTRES DU 21 SEPTEMBRE
  Association of the Victims of 21 September
• COLLECTIF PLUS JAMAIS CA

Photo G. COURTET
12
Victims (suite)

• Les ERT
• SNCF French railways employees
• CCI company directors
• Education Nationale estate school teachers

Photo G. COURTET
13
Opposition forces and vectors of opinion N 895

• FRANCE 3
• SYNDICAT CFDT
• LES AMIS DE LA TERRE
• LE S3PI

Photo G. COURTET
14
CAUSES Analysis
Accident versus terrorist attack
15
BELIEVE semiotic model
the TRUE
appear
to be
the UNTRUTHFUL
the SECRET
the FALSE
non appearance
non being
16
Accident versus terrorist attack
TRUE
accident
to be
UNTRUTHFUL
SECRET
terrorist attack
non being
FALSE
17
Today, the investigators are almost certain that
it was an accident. What is your feeling ?
1,8
Institutions N3723
0,2
5,8
11,1
48,3
56,7
32
44,1
Sinistrés N1000
It probably was an accident.
Since doubt persists, an attack cannot be ruled
out.
No opinion
18
Analyse factorielle de correspondance
NO OPINION
SDIS
ACCIDENT
PJCNINA
DRIRE
SNCF
Amis de la Terre
EN
80,6
SAMU
Ville Toulouse
CCI
S3PI
AXA
CFDT
SNPE
Ass. Sin.
Préfecture
France 3
Grande Paroisse
ATTACK
19,4
19
DIFFERENT ACCIDENT CAUSES
20
Doing semiotic model of what happened The "DO"
DECISION
SANCTION
MANIPULATION
ACTION
PERFORMANCE
COMPETENCE
21
AZF the conditions regarding the EMPLOYEES OF
THE FACILITY
DECISION
Resorting to sub-contractors
Laxness orders
ACTION
Human error
Under qualified
22
Erreur AZF the conditions regarding the FACILITY
DECISION
Lack of technical controls / The State
Investment in security
ACTION
Electric arc
Obsolescence
23
Assuming that it was an accident, what, in your
mind, were the reasons ? (Tick 1, 2 or 3 replies)

• Don't know
• Human error
• Obsolete installations
• An electric arc, the after-effect of an accident
  in another factory.
• Lack of technical controls by the State
• Resorting to sub-contractors rather than hiring
  employees
• Lack of investment in safety
• Under qualified staff
• Too lax when safety orders are not complied with

24
Obsolescence
Victims N1000
Investment in security
Laxness orders
Technical controls
50,1
Human error
37,6
Sub-contractors
36,6
Dont know
Electric arc
25,4
Under qualified
24
16,4
11,6
9,2
4,4
( Le total des réponses dépasse 100 car il y
avait plusieurs réponses possibles )
25
Institutions N 3723
Laxness orders
Obsolescence
Investment in security
Sub-contractors

Technical controls
43,7
Human error
39,1
42,8
Dont know
Electric arc
34,2
Under qualified
29,4
17,6
11,2
10,9
8,2
( Le total des réponses dépasse 100 car il y
avait plusieurs réponses possibles )
26
The human causes
CFDT 47,2
AXA 16,5
SNPE AZF
CCI
Sub-contractors
SNCF 12,4
PREF 2,7
Under qualified
PJC
CCI 27,9
AZF 5,7
Human error
CCI 21
SNPE
PJC 54,8
AZF 0
Laxness orders
AXA CCI // CFDT SNPE AZF
27
The technical causes
PJC 50
AZF 5,7
EN
Investment in security
EN 56,5
AZF 2,9
SDIS FR3
SNPE
Obsolescence
AZF 71,4
SNPE 2,3
Electric arc
AMIS 43,9
DRIRE 17,6
Technical controls
EN SDIS FR3// SNPE AZF
AMIS // DRIRE
28
Arc électrique
Analyse factorielle de correspondance
Grande Paroisse
41,1
Contrôle Etat
Erreur humaine
Sous-traitants
SAMU
S3PI
DRIRE
PJC
SNPE
Préf.
SDIS
Ville
SNCF
33,1
AT
AXA
CCI
CFDT
EN
Fr3
AS
Sous-qualification
Laxisme
Inv.ts sécurité
Vétusté
29
ACTION DECISION
Manipulation
Sanction
Compétence
Performance
62 72,2
49,2 73,3
54,5 52
33,228,5
S I
S I
S I
S I
S Sinistrés I Institutions
( Le total des réponses dépasse 100 car il y
avait plusieurs réponses possibles )
30
The human causes/ The technical causes
Personnel
Personnel
Installation
Installation
Institutions N3723
Sinistrés N 1000