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Towards Sustainable Development

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Trend in car ownership : a huge growth potential for China and India. Cars per 1000 persons. 6. Future of Energy Brunei April 21st, 2007 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Towards Sustainable Development


1
The Future of Energy Jean-Michel Gires VP
Sustainable Development and Environment Total
2
Sustainable Development in TOTAL, why ?
  • Because sustainability issues are more and more
    important
  • Limited Resources (energy, raw materials, water,
    land, ecosystems )
  • Damaged Environment (air, water, wastes, soils )
  • Climate Change
  • while Development question is still being asked
    everywhere
  • 6 G inhabitants, maybe 10 G
  • 1 G in developed countries, 5 G in developing
    countries
  • Food, housing but as well comfort, electricity,
    mobility
  • Because Big Companies are to be important Civil
    Society partners
  • Giving priority to their industrial and
    commercial challenges
  • Not always motivated to explain themselves, even
    with their neighbours
  • Lack of understanding with Civil Society as a
    normal consequence

3
Sustainable Development in TOTAL, how ?
  • In front of these civil society challenges, the
    company is putting at risk its licence to
    operate, and its capacity to develop in the
    medium long term we therefore need a change in
    our practices
  • Better control and reduce our impacts
  • Better create value for all involved stakeholders
  • Better prepare the long term future

4
Energy Future very important needs for
developing countries
Energy consumption per capita (toe)
1960-2001 or 1971-2001
US
CANADA
EUROPE
JAPAN
KOREA
HONG KONG
TAIWAN
WORLD
CHINA
INDIA
GDP per capita (k1995 PPP)
Source IEA
At least 1 G extra people on their way to modern
development
5
Trend in car ownership a huge growth potential
for China and India
Cars per 1000 persons
6
Energy different uses at different development
stages
Primary Energy consumption
Mb/j
2
Electricity
2
Transports
1,3
Heating
1,1
Industry
Not the same issues for stationery uses,
electricity and transport
7
Demand will keep growing, and Oil and Gas will
stay essential in the short medium term
Energy Demand
Oil transport importance
Toe Ton Oil Equivalent
Source AIE WEO 2004
8
Proven Oil and Gas Reserves do allow to match
these challenges
Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (G boe)
  • Oil and Gas Reserves
  • Proven gt 2000 G boe
  • Additional gt1000 G boe

Oil proven reserves
Gaz proven reserves
Proven Reserves / production (years)
Gas
Longer reserves for gas, but with a lower
production
Oil
Proven Reserves are increased by Technology and
Investments Investments are critical to
increase production capacities
9
Oil Price keeps high not because of lack of
capacity fears, not real market shortage
Stocks OCDE Demand Days
WTI /b
(inversed scale)
Stocks at 54 demand days at end 2006
Source AIE
10
because China Oil Consumption keeps increasing

Oil Production and Demand in China
Mb/d
0,4
Imports
0,4
0,2
47 of 2006 demand
0,9
Auto-sufficiency
2007 (p)
Production
Demand
Source IEA
11
because production capacity reserve is low
  • OPEC Production Capacity Reserve

Mb/j
Less than 2 Mb/j
Source IEA, Total estimate
12
Oil Gas still have a lot to offer up to
Extra heavy oil Recovery upgrading, Process
integration Energy and C02
Seismic technology Acquisition Imagery (
PSDM.) Lithoseismic, 4D
Gas Solutions Sour gas, CO2 H2S
process, LNG Chemical conversion GTL
Deeply Buried Reservoirs Reservoir
prediction High pressure drilling High temperature
Mature fields EOR Debottlenecking Waater
separation
Tight gas Volume estimates Frac Well pattern
Deep water Subsea insstalations Flow
assurance Qualifications
Reservoir characterization Earthmodel Upscaling Fa
ult description
no peak oil before at least 2025
13
Long term future Non-conventional oils challenges
Billions of barrels oil equivalent 01.01.2006
300?
CIS
300?
Europe
Middle East
North America

100?
Asia Pacific
Africa
Latin America
Atlantic Offshore
New fields 100 G b Deep Offshore
600 G b Extra Heavy Oil Other fields
Arctic oil
Source Oil and Gas Journal, IEA
14
TOTAL to develop Natural Gas by valuing long
distance gas sources

GNL

Trading
Power generation
Major Markets
Group LNG flows

In service or under construction
IC sales
Regional upstream interest
Gas pipeline
LNG Terminal
Under study
15
TOTAL presence in the Coal business
9,2 Mt sold in 2006
Other Atlantic Trading  0.5 Mt
Asia Trading 2.5 Mt
CDF Energie 2.2 Mt
Asia Sales 0.4 Mt
Atlantic Sales 5.0 Mt
Johannesburg
  • Production 4.4 Mt in 2006
  • Arthur Taylor Colliery (50) production 4.1
    502.0 Mt
  • Forzando (100 )
  • production 1,5 Mt
  • Dorstfontein (75)
  • production 0,8 0.75 0.6 Mt

Richards Bay
Terminal of Richards Bay 2004 66 Mt achieved
(dont. 2mt BEE) Accès de TOTAL 6 (y.c.BEE) ,
( 9 avec ATC)
Local sales RSA 0.8 Mt
Cape Town
16
Syngas as an intermediary product for Synfuels
Natural gas
Heavy Oil
Biomass
Coal
Acetic acid
SYNGAS
Formaldehyde
(CO H2)
MTBE
Motor fuels Additives
Methanol
FT Synthesis GTL
Hydrogen
Olefins
Fuel cells
Ammonia
Fuel cells
DME
Diesel motor fuel Kerosene Lubricants Alpha
olefins
Urea
Diesel Motor fuel
Substitute LPG
Electricity Generation
17
Renewable energies can increase their
contribution
18
But, as biomass is the only renewable source able
to produce liquids, biofuels are more and more
looked after
Ethanol and ETBE for gasoline
Iso butylene
Sugar cane Sugar beet Cereals
Sugars Preparation Fermentation
and Purification
Synthesis and purification Of ETBE
Blending with gasoline and distribution
  • ETBE

Ethanol
Vegetable oils for diesel
Rape Seed Sunflower Soy,
Trituration Extraction Purification
Esterification and purification Of VOME
Blending with Gasoil and distribution
Methanol / Éthanol
  • VOME

Vegetable Oil
So far a limited contribution (35 Mtoe mainly
Brazil USA) but a fast growing one
19
New Energies Biofuels challenge 900 kt already
blended by Total in Europe
EMHV (gasoil pool) F . Mixed in refineries lt 5
250.000 t/y . Ecodiesel
for captive fleets lt 30 I . Mixed in terminals
lt 5 15.000 t/y D .
Mixed in 2 refineries (PCK, TRM) 130.000
t/y UK, B, NL . Under discussion RSA
. Under study ETBE (gasoline pool) F . 3
production units (RF,RN,FZN) 210.000
t/y ESP(CEPSA) . 2 production units
(Algeciras, Huelva) 100.000 t/y D (PCK) . 1 prod.
unit (Schwedt) 85.000 t/y B . 1 prod. unit
(RA) 235.000 t/y UK . Potential
(MTBE-LOR) 110. 000 t/y
20
Due to resources limitations or conflicts with
food markets, 2nd generation biofuels will be
needed very soon
2010
21
Decreasing Cost of PV Solar Cells
22
PV Solar access to energy in South Africa
23
Spectacular progresses for Windmills
24
Hydrogen Challenge in Germany
Plus BMW partnership in Munich
  • Station  Heerstrasse  in Berlin
  • Inauguration March 2006.
  • Public distribution H2 (PV) Private
    distribution H2 (Buses BVG) (ICE FC).
  • LH2 GH2 Reformer GPL 2 FCs.

25
Climate Change a worrying situation
Global Temperature Change over 1000 years in C,
Zero Reference corresponding to 1961-1990 period
26
Climate Change what can do an Oil Gas Company
as Total ?
  • Better understand the involved phenomena's, and
    bring our industrial competences on possible
    solutions
  • Better dominate our industrial operations
  • Better help our customers to reduce their
    emissions
  • Prepare the Energy System Evolution
  • Imagine and validate efficient and reliable
    solutions to capture and sequestrate CO2

27
Total operated flaring will continue to
decrease despite rising operated production
Totals operated fields
Production Flaring
  • No flaring on new development
  • Flaring Reduction on existing fields
  • Acute Monitoring of flaring
  • Dedicated team
  • Elaboration of Technical Business solution
  • Issues discussed with Partners and Governments
  • GGFR Standard Support quite useful

24
32
-40
-50
Total target -50 2005-2012 Beyond 2012
Efforts are to be maintained and amplified if we
want to keep reducing flaring
28
CO2 Capture and Sequestration Pilot in Lacq
29
Energy Future Challenges
  • Oil Resources will allow to meet the demand
    challenge for the next 20 years
  • But with some probable difficulties to keep
    developing the production capacities at the
    necessary
  • Gas, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewable will all be
    necessary to ease the constraints
  • As well as a growing oil specialization in white
    products, especially motor fuels and
    petrochemicals
  • At the same time, well have to face the Climate
    Change challenge through
  • More efficient industrial processes
  • Energy efficiency for all fossil energy users
  • Development of new options as CO2 capture and
    Sequestration
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