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Energy%20for%20Sustainable%20Development

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Title: Energy%20for%20Sustainable%20Development


1
Energy forSustainable Development
  • AIESEC-EBBF Seminar, Acuto
  • Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
  • European Bahá'í Business Forum (EBBF)?
  • http//www.ebbf.org
  • and
  • International Environment Forum (IEF)?
  • http//www.bcca.org/ief
  • February 2008

2
Overview of the challenge
  • Our industrial economy was built on cheap energy
  • Transportation, communications, trade,
    agriculture, heating/cooling, consumer lifestyle
    all depend on energy
  • Energy demand is rising rapidly and the supply is
    shrinking
  • Adaptation will be extremely expensive
  • Western material civilization is unsustainable

3
Energy demand 2005-2030
  • Energy needs will grow 50 by 2030
  • 45 of this in India and China
  • Coal demand will increase 73, mostly in India
    and China
  • CO2 emissions will rise 57 (2/3 from US, China,
    India, Russia)?
  • IEA/OECD World Energy Outlook 2007

4
Developing countries
  • Two thirds of future growth in energy demand is
    expected to come from developing countries where
    at least 1.6 billion people are without access to
    electricity in their homes.
  • Over half of people in developing countries still
    rely on biofuel, including wood, dung and
    agricultural wastes, for cooking and heating,
    most of which is burnt indoors.
  • Between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the fuel
    used in households on biomass stoves is not fully
    burnt, triggering a wide range of harmful
    air-borne pollutants.
  • Globally, indoor air pollution of fine particles
    from fuels like charcoal is ranked in the top ten
    causes of mortality, causing up to 2.4 million
    premature deaths a year from respiratory problems
    and heart attacks.
  • In homes burning biomass, particle levels can be
    between 300 to 3,000 microgrammes per cubic metre
    ( EU guideline 40 µg/m3).
  • GEO Year Book 2006 http//www.unep.org/geo/yearboo
    k

5
The Science of Energy
  • Second Law of Thermodynamics entropy
  • All resources are limited on a finite planet
  • Human civilization has reached planetary limits
  • Growth cannot continue indefinitely
  • The human population is expected (barring
    surprises war, famine, pestilence) to reach 9
    billion in mid-century and then decline
  • Planetary carrying capacity depends on numbers
    and standard of living

6
The end of the fossil fuel era
  • Consumption continues to grow at 1.1/yr
  • At present consumption rates, conventional
    reserves of oil will last 40 years, gas 60 years
    and coal 165-285 years
  • Published reserves can increase through new
    discoveries (declining) and new extraction
    technologies, but costs tripled 1999-2006
  • Other constraints are investment cost,
    environmental impact and insecurity in supply
  • Massive investment in present infrastructure
    creates great resistance to change

7
Growth in oil use
  • World 1.1/year
  • OECD 1.3
  • World less economies in transition 2.1
  • Latin America 2.8
  • India 5.4
  • China 7.5 energy demand will double by 2020
  • From 2001-2020, world oil consumption will rise
    56, with OPEC production doubling
  • Non-OPEC production has already peaked
  • Oil provides 40 of world's primary energy

8
How much oil?
  • (reserve estimates are highly controversial)?
  • Ultimate recoverable reserve 2000 Bb
  • Cumulative production 980 Bb
  • Reserves 827 Bb, yet to find 153 Bb
  • Production peaks and starts to decline at half of
    recoverable resource, ca. 2008-2012
  • Post-peak production will fall at about 2.7 per
    year, dropping 75 in 30 years
  • Athabaska tar sands (300Bb) and Orinoco heavy oil
    (300Bb) are environmentally damaging to extract
    (and equal only 22 years current consumption)?

9
The demand-production gap
  • Present output 85m b/d, demand growing 1.1m b/d,
    spare OPEC capacity 3.5m b/d
  • There are access and technical limits to
    increasing production above 100m b/d
  • Oil production is declining in 33 of 48 largest
    oil producing countries
  • Forecasts of 116-118m b/d by 2030 seem
    unrealistic to industry insiders
  • Prices will rise to cut demand to fit available
    production
  • (Ed Crooks and javier Blas, Financial Times, 9
    November 2007)?

10
Alternative fossil fuels
  • Coal larger reserves but high mining impact,
    less energy density, high pollution and CO2
    emissions
  • Gas less polluting, but reserves also limited
  • Methane hydrates in ocean sediments extraction
    difficulties, potent greenhouse gas

11
How much Coal?
  • Official reserves 847 billion tonnes, but hard
    coal reserves down 25 since 1990 some countries
    have not adjusted reserves for decades
  • Production (2007) 6 bt, should rise 70 by 2030
  • Reserves to production ratio 277 yrs in 2000,
    155 yrs in 2005, 144 yrs in 2006
  • Global consumption up 35 2000-2006, but price
    rise has not increased reserves
  • Coal output could peak as early as 2025

12
Our dependence on fossil fuels
  • Road transport, shipping, aviation
  • Chemical feedstocks, plastics, synthetics
  • Energy/raw materials for industrial production
  • Agricultural fertilizers
  • Mechanized agriculture
  • Electricity generation
  • Heating and cooling, lighting
  • Town planning, suburban lifestyle
  • Global trade, food distribution

13
Energy and Population
  • 80 of global energy comes from fossil fuels,
    which we must stop burning
  • to reduce global warming
  • The world population has expanded sixfold,
    exactly in parallel with oil production
  • Can the world maintain such a population without
    the cheap energy from fossil fuels?
  • What will happen if it cannot?

14
The question energy planners never ask
  • Even if we could exploit every fossil fuel
    reserve, can we really afford to cause so much
    global warming?

15
Fossil fuels and CO2
  • Fuel oil produces 2.9 tonnes of CO2 from burning
    1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe)?
  • Natural gas produces 2.1 tonnes CO2 per toe
  • Coal produces 3.8 tonnes CO2 per toe

16
Coal has a significant impact on global warming
  • Major coal producing/ consuming countries US,
    Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, China, have
    45 of world population, consume 45 of world
    energy, produce 52 of CO2, with both expected to
    double by 2025
  • China plans 560 new coal-fired power plants,
    India 213
  • 25 of global CO2 emissions come from coal-fired
    power stations

17
Controlling greenhouse gases?
  • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio,
    1992)?
  • Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gases
    return emissions to 1990 levels by 2012
  • CO2 emissions rose 4.5 in 2004 to 27.5 b tonnes,
    26 higher than 1990
  • China and India have doubled CO2 production
    since 1990, US 20, Australia 40
  • US released 5.8, China 4.5, Europe 3.3, India 1.1
    billion tonnes of CO2 in 2004

18
The Nuclear Option?
  • Cannot scale up to make a significant difference
  • Uranium reserves are expected to be exhausted in
    60-100 years
  • Research costs and development highly subsidized,
    including by military uses
  • High energy input in construction and fuel
    fabrication, not carbon free
  • Risks of accidents uninsurable
  • Decommissioning costs not included (UK 140b)?
  • UK unable to privatize its nuclear industry
  • High waste disposal costs are imposed on future
    generations, with no safe long-term disposal yet
    found
  • Fusion still "40 years" off

19
New Energy Technologies
  • Hydrogen
  • Fuel cells
  • Metal nano-fuels
  • still require a source of energy, fossil or
    renewable

20
Investment challenges
  • The International Energy Agency estimates needed
    investment in energy infrastructure at 22,000bn
    by 2030 to replace ageing capacity and meet
    growing demand (2 global GDP, 130 per person
    per year)?
  • Responding to climate change would add 2,000bn

21
Problems of energy economics
  • Hidden subsidies are frequent
  • Price instabilities produce windfall profits and
    discourage investments
  • Reserve estimates are notoriously unreliable
  • The market is politically manipulated 75 of
    oil reserves are under government control
  • As with any addiction, users will pay anything to
    maintain their habit

22
The business community is worried
  • Carbon Disclosure Project
  • The Carbon Disclosure Project, representing a
    group of 225 investors with 31 trillion of
    assets under management, i.e more than 50 of the
    worlds invested assets, has invited 2,100
    companies worldwide to disclose
    investment-relevant information concerning their
    greenhouse gas emissions.
  • See http//www.cdproject.net

23
Investment in developing countries
  • The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the
    Kyoto Protocol will make available over 3bn of
    carbon funds currently managed by public and
    private bodies for investment in projects that
    cut emissions of greenhouse gases. This new
    source of finance for clean energy projects in
    Africa and other developing countries is putting
    them firmly back on the map for clean energy and
    forestry project finance.
  • See Carbon finance for Africa - An Investors'
    Guide
  • http//www.africapractice.com/case.html

24
The politics of fossil fuels
  • Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a few
    regions, accentuating the unjust distribution of
    wealth
  • The struggle to control reserves and access is a
    major source of conflict
  • Since access to energy is a vital national
    interest, these problems will increase as
    supplies diminish
  • Only global management assuring just distribution
    of energy resources can resolve this situation

25
How do we go back to life without fossil fuels?
  • Or can we go forward toward a new integrated
    approach to energy capture and efficient use?

26
HOW DOES NATURE DO IT?Energy management in
thecoral reef ecosystem
  • Efficient solar energy capture by generating
    large surface area
  • Efficient energy transfers within system,
    symbioses
  • Little waste, effective recycling
  • High complexity and integration
  • Maximizes total productivity, not just most
    productive

27
Solar Energy
  • The only long-term, large-scale
  • energy source

28
Plants are highly efficient solar energy devices
29
Bio-fuels
  • Wood
  • Dung, animal wastes
  • Ethanol
  • Biodiesel
  • Coconut, palm, rapeseed oils
  • Bagass (sugar cane waste)?
  • Biogas
  • but their production will compete with food
    production and other land uses

30
Problems with biofuels
  • Most present biofuel crops require high energy
    inputs to grow, harvest and process, with little
    net CO2 benefit (maize ethanol 0-12, soy
    biodiesel 41)?
  • Competition with food production, raising food
    prices
  • Pressure to clear tropical forest for oil palm
    and soybeans
  • Area not sufficient to meet present fuel needs
    (US only 5)

31
Technologies for solar energy capture
  • Photovoltaic
  • Solar water heaters
  • Parabolic reflectors (need steering)?
  • Tubular captors with reflectors
  • Greenhouse effect
  • Passive solar heating in buildings
  • but solar energy is diffuse, not concentrated

32
Indirect solar power
  • Water hydroelectric power is widely used where
    resources permit
  • Wind commercially viable as part of a mix of
    energy sources
  • Tides selected locations
  • Waves engineering challenges
  • OTEC ocean thermal energy conversion
  • Chimney effect (air thermal gradients)?

33
Energy efficiencythe first priority
  • Reduce the resources and energy necessary to
    maintain our standard of living
  • Factor 4 (von Weizsäcker, Lovins et Lovins, 1997.
    Factor four Doubling wealth halving resource
    use. Earthscan, London)?
  • Factor 10
  • Targets adopted by OECD
  • Examples more efficient appliances, reduce heat
    loss from buildings, public transport

34

Where does our electric energy come from? Total
Electricity Generation Worldwide
(TWh)  (source
International Energy Agency 2002)? World
Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE)
http//www.localpower.org
35
Centralized versus decentralized
  • The Western economic system has encouraged
    centralized energy systems (large generating
    stations, large dams, large refineries, extensive
    power grids)?
  • Transmission produces large losses
  • Small-scale systems close to users do not
    interest large corporations
  • Solar energy and most renewables are inherently
    decentralized
  • The economic system biases technology choice

36
Some strategies
  • Iceland hydrogen economy
  • Sweden plan for oil-free economy by 2020
  • Sustainable electricity in Geneva 86
  • Village in Luxembourg
  • Hawaii Energy for Tomorrow (efficiency,
    renewables, biofuels, hydrogen technology,
    consumer incentives)?

37
A US strategy to stabilize CO2 emissionsPacala,
Stephen and Robert Socolow (2004), Science 305968
  • 15 proven technologies, including
  • Carbon sequestration
  • Better energy efficiency in buildings
  • Doubling fuel efficiency of cars
  • Wind turbines
  • Clean coal technologies
  • 700 gigawatts of nuclear power
  • to stabilize CO2 at today's level by 2054

38
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
  • Key areas for action
  • Energy efficiency first priority
  • Energy mix promote the use of all non-emitting
    technologies, including nuclear energy
  • Carbon capture and storage bridge from fossil
    fuels to new energy systems
  • Enabling energy technology research and
    development
  • Support to developing countries technology
    transfer to leap-frog to modern energy
    technologies
  • http//www.wbcsd.org

39
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
  • The GHG Protocol A Corporate Accounting and
    Reporting Standard
  • Clean Development Mechanism and the new GHG
    Protocol for Project Accounting
  • Sector projects
  • Electricity Utilities
  • Sustainable Forest Products Initiative
  • Sustainable Cement Initiative
  • Mobility
  • Energy Efficiency in Buildings
  • http//www.wbcsd.org

40
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
  • Long term policy framework
  • Predictability
  • Efficiency-based objectives on climate change,
    energy, economic development and trade
  • Wide participation by governments with fairness,
    equity and common but differentiated
    responsibilities
  • Use of market-based mechanisms and instruments
    long-term value for carbon
  • Engaging the capital markets
  • Changing consumer behaviour
  • http//www.wbcsd.org

41
Barriers to change
  • the biggest obstacles to the take up of
    technologies such as renewable
  • sources of energy and "clean coal" lie in vested
    interests, cultural barriers to change and simple
    lack of awareness.
  • - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, UK
    Meteorological Office -
  • from http//www.unepfi.org/ebulletin

42
The double challenge
  • On current trends, ...humanity will need twice
    as much energy as it uses today within 35
    years.... Produce too little energy, say the
    economists, and there will be price hikes and a
    financial crash unlike any the world has ever
    known, with possible resource wars, depression
    and famine. Produce the wrong sort of energy, say
    the climate scientists, and we will have more
    droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide
    economic disaster with runaway global warming.
  • John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February
    2007, Energy supplement, p. 3

43
Ways forward
  • Harness all available sources of energy on the
    surface of the planet
  • Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits
  • Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock
  • Create global governance mechanisms to manage
    this global challenge
  • Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with
    equity and justice

44
Things you can do
  • Walk, bicycle or use public transport
  • Make your personal residence energy efficient
    (light bulbs, appliances,no standby,
    heating/cooling, etc.)?
  • Choose electricity from renewable sources if
    available
  • Consume less, buy local
  • Consider the energy implications of everything
    you do

45
Building a sustainable energy future is a major
challenge for your generation
  • Thank you
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