Energy%20for%20Sustainable%20Development

1
Energy forSustainable Development

• AIESEC-EBBF Seminar, Acuto
• Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D.
• European Bahá'í Business Forum (EBBF)?
• http//www.ebbf.org
• and
• International Environment Forum (IEF)?
• http//www.bcca.org/ief
• February 2008

2
Overview of the challenge

• Our industrial economy was built on cheap energy
• Transportation, communications, trade,
  agriculture, heating/cooling, consumer lifestyle
  all depend on energy
• Energy demand is rising rapidly and the supply is
  shrinking
• Adaptation will be extremely expensive
• Western material civilization is unsustainable

3
Energy demand 2005-2030

• Energy needs will grow 50 by 2030
• 45 of this in India and China
• Coal demand will increase 73, mostly in India
  and China
• CO2 emissions will rise 57 (2/3 from US, China,
  India, Russia)?
• IEA/OECD World Energy Outlook 2007

4
Developing countries

• Two thirds of future growth in energy demand is
  expected to come from developing countries where
  at least 1.6 billion people are without access to
  electricity in their homes.
• Over half of people in developing countries still
  rely on biofuel, including wood, dung and
  agricultural wastes, for cooking and heating,
  most of which is burnt indoors.
• Between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the fuel
  used in households on biomass stoves is not fully
  burnt, triggering a wide range of harmful
  air-borne pollutants.
• Globally, indoor air pollution of fine particles
  from fuels like charcoal is ranked in the top ten
  causes of mortality, causing up to 2.4 million
  premature deaths a year from respiratory problems
  and heart attacks.
• In homes burning biomass, particle levels can be
  between 300 to 3,000 microgrammes per cubic metre
  ( EU guideline 40 µg/m3).
• GEO Year Book 2006 http//www.unep.org/geo/yearboo
  k

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The Science of Energy

• Second Law of Thermodynamics entropy
• All resources are limited on a finite planet
• Human civilization has reached planetary limits
• Growth cannot continue indefinitely
• The human population is expected (barring
  surprises war, famine, pestilence) to reach 9
  billion in mid-century and then decline
• Planetary carrying capacity depends on numbers
  and standard of living

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The end of the fossil fuel era

• Consumption continues to grow at 1.1/yr
• At present consumption rates, conventional
  reserves of oil will last 40 years, gas 60 years
  and coal 165-285 years
• Published reserves can increase through new
  discoveries (declining) and new extraction
  technologies, but costs tripled 1999-2006
• Other constraints are investment cost,
  environmental impact and insecurity in supply
• Massive investment in present infrastructure
  creates great resistance to change

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Growth in oil use

• World 1.1/year
• OECD 1.3
• World less economies in transition 2.1
• Latin America 2.8
• India 5.4
• China 7.5 energy demand will double by 2020
• From 2001-2020, world oil consumption will rise
  56, with OPEC production doubling
• Non-OPEC production has already peaked
• Oil provides 40 of world's primary energy

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How much oil?

• (reserve estimates are highly controversial)?
• Ultimate recoverable reserve 2000 Bb
• Cumulative production 980 Bb
• Reserves 827 Bb, yet to find 153 Bb
• Production peaks and starts to decline at half of
  recoverable resource, ca. 2008-2012
• Post-peak production will fall at about 2.7 per
  year, dropping 75 in 30 years
• Athabaska tar sands (300Bb) and Orinoco heavy oil
  (300Bb) are environmentally damaging to extract
  (and equal only 22 years current consumption)?

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The demand-production gap

• Present output 85m b/d, demand growing 1.1m b/d,
  spare OPEC capacity 3.5m b/d
• There are access and technical limits to
  increasing production above 100m b/d
• Oil production is declining in 33 of 48 largest
  oil producing countries
• Forecasts of 116-118m b/d by 2030 seem
  unrealistic to industry insiders
• Prices will rise to cut demand to fit available
  production
• (Ed Crooks and javier Blas, Financial Times, 9
  November 2007)?

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Alternative fossil fuels

• Coal larger reserves but high mining impact,
  less energy density, high pollution and CO2
  emissions
• Gas less polluting, but reserves also limited
• Methane hydrates in ocean sediments extraction
  difficulties, potent greenhouse gas

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How much Coal?

• Official reserves 847 billion tonnes, but hard
  coal reserves down 25 since 1990 some countries
  have not adjusted reserves for decades
• Production (2007) 6 bt, should rise 70 by 2030
• Reserves to production ratio 277 yrs in 2000,
  155 yrs in 2005, 144 yrs in 2006
• Global consumption up 35 2000-2006, but price
  rise has not increased reserves
• Coal output could peak as early as 2025

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Our dependence on fossil fuels

• Road transport, shipping, aviation
• Chemical feedstocks, plastics, synthetics
• Energy/raw materials for industrial production
• Agricultural fertilizers
• Mechanized agriculture
• Electricity generation
• Heating and cooling, lighting
• Town planning, suburban lifestyle
• Global trade, food distribution

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Energy and Population

• 80 of global energy comes from fossil fuels,
  which we must stop burning
• to reduce global warming
• The world population has expanded sixfold,
  exactly in parallel with oil production
• Can the world maintain such a population without
  the cheap energy from fossil fuels?
• What will happen if it cannot?

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The question energy planners never ask

• Even if we could exploit every fossil fuel
  reserve, can we really afford to cause so much
  global warming?

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Fossil fuels and CO2

• Fuel oil produces 2.9 tonnes of CO2 from burning
  1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe)?
• Natural gas produces 2.1 tonnes CO2 per toe
• Coal produces 3.8 tonnes CO2 per toe

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Coal has a significant impact on global warming

• Major coal producing/ consuming countries US,
  Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, China, have
  45 of world population, consume 45 of world
  energy, produce 52 of CO2, with both expected to
  double by 2025
• China plans 560 new coal-fired power plants,
  India 213
• 25 of global CO2 emissions come from coal-fired
  power stations

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Controlling greenhouse gases?

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Rio,
  1992)?
• Kyoto Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gases
  return emissions to 1990 levels by 2012
• CO2 emissions rose 4.5 in 2004 to 27.5 b tonnes,
  26 higher than 1990
• China and India have doubled CO2 production
  since 1990, US 20, Australia 40
• US released 5.8, China 4.5, Europe 3.3, India 1.1
  billion tonnes of CO2 in 2004

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The Nuclear Option?

• Cannot scale up to make a significant difference
• Uranium reserves are expected to be exhausted in
  60-100 years
• Research costs and development highly subsidized,
  including by military uses
• High energy input in construction and fuel
  fabrication, not carbon free
• Risks of accidents uninsurable
• Decommissioning costs not included (UK 140b)?
• UK unable to privatize its nuclear industry
• High waste disposal costs are imposed on future
  generations, with no safe long-term disposal yet
  found
• Fusion still "40 years" off

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New Energy Technologies

• Hydrogen
• Fuel cells
• Metal nano-fuels
• still require a source of energy, fossil or
  renewable

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Investment challenges

• The International Energy Agency estimates needed
  investment in energy infrastructure at 22,000bn
  by 2030 to replace ageing capacity and meet
  growing demand (2 global GDP, 130 per person
  per year)?
• Responding to climate change would add 2,000bn

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Problems of energy economics

• Hidden subsidies are frequent
• Price instabilities produce windfall profits and
  discourage investments
• Reserve estimates are notoriously unreliable
• The market is politically manipulated 75 of
  oil reserves are under government control
• As with any addiction, users will pay anything to
  maintain their habit

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The business community is worried

• Carbon Disclosure Project
• The Carbon Disclosure Project, representing a
  group of 225 investors with 31 trillion of
  assets under management, i.e more than 50 of the
  worlds invested assets, has invited 2,100
  companies worldwide to disclose
  investment-relevant information concerning their
  greenhouse gas emissions.
• See http//www.cdproject.net

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Investment in developing countries

• The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the
  Kyoto Protocol will make available over 3bn of
  carbon funds currently managed by public and
  private bodies for investment in projects that
  cut emissions of greenhouse gases. This new
  source of finance for clean energy projects in
  Africa and other developing countries is putting
  them firmly back on the map for clean energy and
  forestry project finance.
• See Carbon finance for Africa - An Investors'
  Guide
• http//www.africapractice.com/case.html

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The politics of fossil fuels

• Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a few
  regions, accentuating the unjust distribution of
  wealth
• The struggle to control reserves and access is a
  major source of conflict
• Since access to energy is a vital national
  interest, these problems will increase as
  supplies diminish
• Only global management assuring just distribution
  of energy resources can resolve this situation

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How do we go back to life without fossil fuels?

• Or can we go forward toward a new integrated
  approach to energy capture and efficient use?

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HOW DOES NATURE DO IT?Energy management in
thecoral reef ecosystem

• Efficient solar energy capture by generating
  large surface area
• Efficient energy transfers within system,
  symbioses
• Little waste, effective recycling
• High complexity and integration
• Maximizes total productivity, not just most
  productive

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Solar Energy

• The only long-term, large-scale
• energy source

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Plants are highly efficient solar energy devices
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Bio-fuels

• Wood
• Dung, animal wastes
• Ethanol
• Biodiesel
• Coconut, palm, rapeseed oils
• Bagass (sugar cane waste)?
• Biogas
• but their production will compete with food
  production and other land uses

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Problems with biofuels

• Most present biofuel crops require high energy
  inputs to grow, harvest and process, with little
  net CO2 benefit (maize ethanol 0-12, soy
  biodiesel 41)?
• Competition with food production, raising food
  prices
• Pressure to clear tropical forest for oil palm
  and soybeans
• Area not sufficient to meet present fuel needs
  (US only 5)

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Technologies for solar energy capture

• Photovoltaic
• Solar water heaters
• Parabolic reflectors (need steering)?
• Tubular captors with reflectors
• Greenhouse effect
• Passive solar heating in buildings
• but solar energy is diffuse, not concentrated

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Indirect solar power

• Water hydroelectric power is widely used where
  resources permit
• Wind commercially viable as part of a mix of
  energy sources
• Tides selected locations
• Waves engineering challenges
• OTEC ocean thermal energy conversion
• Chimney effect (air thermal gradients)?

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Energy efficiencythe first priority

• Reduce the resources and energy necessary to
  maintain our standard of living
• Factor 4 (von Weizsäcker, Lovins et Lovins, 1997.
  Factor four Doubling wealth halving resource
  use. Earthscan, London)?
• Factor 10
• Targets adopted by OECD
• Examples more efficient appliances, reduce heat
  loss from buildings, public transport

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Where does our electric energy come from? Total
Electricity Generation Worldwide
(TWh)  (source
International Energy Agency 2002)? World
Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE)
http//www.localpower.org
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Centralized versus decentralized

• The Western economic system has encouraged
  centralized energy systems (large generating
  stations, large dams, large refineries, extensive
  power grids)?
• Transmission produces large losses
• Small-scale systems close to users do not
  interest large corporations
• Solar energy and most renewables are inherently
  decentralized
• The economic system biases technology choice

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Some strategies

• Iceland hydrogen economy
• Sweden plan for oil-free economy by 2020
• Sustainable electricity in Geneva 86
• Village in Luxembourg
• Hawaii Energy for Tomorrow (efficiency,
  renewables, biofuels, hydrogen technology,
  consumer incentives)?

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A US strategy to stabilize CO2 emissionsPacala,
Stephen and Robert Socolow (2004), Science 305968

• 15 proven technologies, including
• Carbon sequestration
• Better energy efficiency in buildings
• Doubling fuel efficiency of cars
• Wind turbines
• Clean coal technologies
• 700 gigawatts of nuclear power
• to stabilize CO2 at today's level by 2054

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World Business Council for Sustainable Development

• Key areas for action
• Energy efficiency first priority
• Energy mix promote the use of all non-emitting
  technologies, including nuclear energy
• Carbon capture and storage bridge from fossil
  fuels to new energy systems
• Enabling energy technology research and
  development
• Support to developing countries technology
  transfer to leap-frog to modern energy
  technologies
• http//www.wbcsd.org

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World Business Council for Sustainable Development

• The GHG Protocol A Corporate Accounting and
  Reporting Standard
• Clean Development Mechanism and the new GHG
  Protocol for Project Accounting
• Sector projects
• Electricity Utilities
• Sustainable Forest Products Initiative
• Sustainable Cement Initiative
• Mobility
• Energy Efficiency in Buildings
• http//www.wbcsd.org

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World Business Council for Sustainable Development

• Long term policy framework
• Predictability
• Efficiency-based objectives on climate change,
  energy, economic development and trade
• Wide participation by governments with fairness,
  equity and common but differentiated
  responsibilities
• Use of market-based mechanisms and instruments
  long-term value for carbon
• Engaging the capital markets
• Changing consumer behaviour
• http//www.wbcsd.org

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Barriers to change

• the biggest obstacles to the take up of
  technologies such as renewable
• sources of energy and "clean coal" lie in vested
  interests, cultural barriers to change and simple
  lack of awareness.
• - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, UK
  Meteorological Office -
• from http//www.unepfi.org/ebulletin

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The double challenge

• On current trends, ...humanity will need twice
  as much energy as it uses today within 35
  years.... Produce too little energy, say the
  economists, and there will be price hikes and a
  financial crash unlike any the world has ever
  known, with possible resource wars, depression
  and famine. Produce the wrong sort of energy, say
  the climate scientists, and we will have more
  droughts, floods, rising seas and worldwide
  economic disaster with runaway global warming.
• John Vidal in The Guardian Weekly, 9-15 February
  2007, Energy supplement, p. 3

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Ways forward

• Harness all available sources of energy on the
  surface of the planet
• Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits
• Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock
• Create global governance mechanisms to manage
  this global challenge
• Share the cost, effort and benefits globally with
  equity and justice

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Things you can do

• Walk, bicycle or use public transport
• Make your personal residence energy efficient
  (light bulbs, appliances,no standby,
  heating/cooling, etc.)?
• Choose electricity from renewable sources if
  available
• Consume less, buy local
• Consider the energy implications of everything
  you do

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Building a sustainable energy future is a major
challenge for your generation

• Thank you