Title: U'S' Wheat Associates World and U'S' Wheat Supply and Demand
1U.S. Wheat AssociatesWorld and U.S. Wheat
Supply and Demand
- November 2005
- Source USDA, World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates
2Production Outlook 2005/06
- Worldwide production pegged at 611 MMT, down 2
(15 MMT) from 2004/05 record harvest. Second
highest level on record - Harvested area unchanged from last year
- Projected yields down from 2004/05 bumper crop
- Northern hemisphere harvests finished mixed
- FSU production well above average (92 MMT)
- 6 above 2004/05 and 50 above 2003/04
- 19 MMT above 10 year average
- Major production declines seen in EU 25 (14 MMT)
and Morocco (3 MMT) - Southern hemisphere conditions also mixed
- Australian forecasted production of 22.5 MMT, up
1 MMT from last year - Argentine drought projected to decrease
production by 4 MMT from last year
3Consumption Outlook 2005/06
- World demand continues to grow forecast up 2
(12 MMT) this year after 3 (20 MMT) increase in
2004/05 - Feed use up 7 (7 MMT)
- Increases in Europe and FSU
- Food use up 1 (5 MMT)
- Population growth in South Asia and North Africa,
consumption growth in Nigeria
4Stocks, Trade and Price Outlook 2005/06
- World stocks 18 (32 MMT) below 10-year average
- Major Exporters holding higher carry-in stocks,
46 (18 MMT) increase over last years levels - Increased export competition
- FSU exports forecast up 27 (4 MMT) and the EU
11 (1.5 MMT) - Argentine exports down by nearly 50
- U.S. Farm Gate Prices stable
- 3.25 to 3.55/bushel (119-130/MT) compared
with 3.40 (125/MT) in 2004/05 (Average U.S.
farm gate price, marketing year weighted average) - U.S. Export prices mixed
- HRS and HRW have strengthened
- SRW and soft white are weaker
5Preliminary Production Outlook 2006/07
- Northern Hemisphere Winter Planting Underway
- FSU drought
- Russia and Ukraine acres expected to decline by
15-20 - low domestic prices
- financial problems in the farming sector
- drought delayed planting
- US Soft Wheat Acreage Up, Hard Wheat Conditions
Questionable - High fertilizer costs cause acreage shift from
corn to SRW - Conditions remain somewhat dry in some HRW areas
6World Production and Use
Source all data is from USDA, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates November
10, 2005 release (unless otherwise noted)
7Wheat Supplies in Top Five Exporting Countries
Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and
EU-25
8Wheat Supplies in Top Four Exporting Countries
Includes U.S., Canada, Australia and Argentina
9World Wheat Supply and Demand
10World Beginning Stocks
11Global Stocks-to-Use Ratio
12World Stocks and Price
Prices are marketing year averages2005/06
current year-to-date average
Source U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report as of
11/10/05
13Top Five Exporter Stocks and Price
Prices are marketing year averages2005/06
current year-to-date average
Top 5 Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia,
Argentina and EU-25 Price Source U.S. Wheat
Associates, Price Report as of 11/10/05
14World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
- Major Exporters
- Nontraditional Exporters
- Import Demand
- U.S. Situation by Class
15Canada Production and Exports
16Canada Ending Stocks
17Australia Production and Exports
18Australia Ending Stocks
19Argentina Production and Exports
20Argentina Ending Stocks
21EU-25 Production and Trade
22EU-25 Ending Stocks
23U.S. Production and Exports
24U.S. Ending Wheat Stocks
25U.S. Share of Wheat Export Market
26U.S. Wheat Area and Production
27U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
Source USDA National Agricultural Statistics
Service
28World CornProduction, Use and Trade
29World SoybeanProduction, Use and Trade
30World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
31World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
- Major Exporters
- Nontraditional Exporters
- Import Demand
- U.S. Situation by Class
32India Beginning Stocks and Production
33India Net Trade
Net Exports
Net Imports
34Pakistan Net Trade
Net Exports
Net Imports
35India and Pakistan Net Trade
Net Exports
Net Imports
36FSU-12 Production and Utilization
FSU-12 includes former Soviet Union, excluding
Baltic States
37FSU-12 Ending Stocks
38FSU-12 Net Trade
FSU-12 includes former Soviet Union, excluding
Baltic States
39Black Sea Exports
40Wheat Production in EU, Nontraditionals, and Top
Four Exporters
Nontraditional exporters include FSU-12, India
and Pakistan Top four exporters include U.S.,
Canada, Australia and Argentina
41U.S. and Nontraditional Exports
Nontraditional exporters include FSU-12, India
and Pakistan
42Net Exports of Leading Suppliers
Nontraditional exporters include FSU-12, India
and Pakistan Top four exporters include U.S.,
Canada, Australia and Argentina EU includes EU-15
data prior to 1999/00
43World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
- Major Exporters
- Nontraditional Exporters
- Import Demand
- U.S. Situation by Class
44Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
45Top 10 Customers for U.S. WheatPrior Marketing
Years 2003/04 vs. 2004/05
Source Foreign Agriculture Service Export Sales
Report (year-end summary)
46Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat2004/05 vs.
2005/06(year-to-date)
Source USDA FAS export sales report November
10, 2005
47World Wheat Imports
Trend in other importers denoted ( )
48China and FSU Imports
49China Wheat Situation
50World and U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
- Major Exporters
- Nontraditional Exporters
- Import Demand
- U.S. Situation by Class
51U.S. Hard Red Winter
52U.S. Hard Red Spring
53U.S. Soft Red Winter
54U.S. White
55U.S. Durum
56U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source USDA FAS export sales report 11/10/05
57Change in U.S. Wheat Sales2004/05 vs.
2005/06(year-to-date)
Source USDA FAS export sales report 11/10/05
58U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
59U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
60U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
61U.S. Wheat Prices (FOB Gulf)
Source U.S. Wheat Associates, Price Report as
of November 10
62U.S. Wheat Prices (FOB PNW)
Source U.S. Wheat Associates, Price Report as
of November 10
63U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
Source U.S. Wheat Associates, Price Report as
of November 10
64U.S. PNW Basis Prices
Source U.S. Wheat Associates, Price Report as
of November 10
65Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
Source U.S. Wheat Associates, Price Report as
of November 10
66Summary
- Global production will be high, the second
largest crop in history - Northern Hemisphere - protein content generally
high, large percentage of feed-use wheat - Southern Hemisphere - growing conditions mixed
- Australia weather improved
- Argentina production down by 4 MMT
- Larger stocks held in exporter countries
- Production in the FSU-12 very strong
- EU expansion results in large supplies, expect
- Continued export subsidization
- Increased EU competitiveness in Northern Africa
- Increased market competition with
- Exports up 1 MMT in Canada and Australia
- Black Sea region up 4 MMT
- World trade to rebound to 109 MMT in 2005/06
although - U.S. wheat exports to fall from 26 to 25 (1.7
MMT)